Earlier quoted context omitted.
What if the power gained by AI models is less than expected?
Then we might have to solve our education problems after all.
Ha! I wouldn’t count on it.
America is now one big bet on AI
41–50 of 193 posts
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#42Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.
Something like 70-80%+ of US stock market ownership is institutional, which ultimately means overwhelmingly pension and insurance funds. I'd imagine much of the rest is individual investors' pension savings.
Bubbles can grow fine so long as no one wants their money back. But eventually they will, and then valuations will be real. When all these boomers draw their savings and buy themselves annuities, what's going to happen?
One pet theory of mine is that the US market goes up so much because of it's population growth. DM in Europe for example don't see this net inflow of people saving for retirement, instead the pressure is rather pensioners pulling money out.
Eventually though even the US stock market will have a reality check, and who knows what happens then.
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#43Key quote: > The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year. In other words, investment in AI is a massive private-sector stimulus program, powering economic growth. Questions for which no one knows the answer include: * Will these AI investments earn a positive rate of return in the aggregate? * Without these investments o…
> Without these investments on AI and their second-order economic effects, would the US economy be growing?
It's only 40% of the growth so.. yes.
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#44Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.
The narrative around AI taking all the jobs, causing layoffs, etc. is certainly about power. The stock prices are about sentiment. When that sentiment evaporates because AI cannot in fact replace the workforce, the stock prices will fall, maybe precipitously. Ironically, if AI fulfills its promise, I suspect the same will happen due to a lack of confidence in the consumer economy from mass unemployment.
This bubble will pop either way, but it could continue like this for years.
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#45> No nation has seen an immigration boom-bust cycle near the scale of the one roiling America. Net immigration nearly quadrupled after 2020 to peak at well over 3mn in 2023, but the backlash led by President Donald Trump sent that figure into freefall. This year only around 400,000 net new arrivals are expected, and that could be the trend in the coming years. If true, that's <1% of the population?
Trump's stated goal is to deport 4M people (by deporting 3k people per day). They count border crossing apprehensions in this number, so this isn't 4M current residents. The government currently claims [1] 9,740 border crossing "encounters" per month. I'm unsure if it is correct to count these as deportations - but assuming so - then these account for ~480,000 of the 4M target. Leaving ~3.5M current residents to be deported.
Or roughly 1% of the current US population.
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-enc...
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#46While it's all true, I think it's exciting that there's a country that's not afraid of betting when all the signs point to AI being accerelated. USA already bet on software when it let China overtake manufacturing. Now the only worse thing to betting on AI would be slowing it down inside USA.
China's also betting on AI. There's massive domestic effort towards model parity and custom ICs.
Additionally, to my knowledge, China is also doing significantly better on energy production and clean energy at that versus the US.
In the US, we are terrified of nuclear and the administration is trying to make economically worse energy production the norm because they are stuck in the past.
If there is an AI race, I have zero doubt that China WILL win simply because of energy production and the government's willingness to pour money in. It's a foregone conclusion at this point in my opinion because the time to build new energy sources was yesterday. The only way I see China losing is: major debt crisis or getting into a war.
There is no chance, in my opinion, that the US federal government will get off their butts suddenly to fund AI or infrastructure because they are so busy worrying about less than 1% of the population who don't affect them but that they find 'icky'.
Woke isn't destroying the US, it's the people who are busy ' "judging their neighbors' porches" meanwhile the neighborhood is burning down.
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#47While it's all true, I think it's exciting that there's a country that's not afraid of betting when all the signs point to AI being accerelated. USA already bet on software when it let China overtake manufacturing. Now the only worse thing to betting on AI would be slowing it down inside USA.
This is something I don’t get. The general cost of living is sky rocketing, largely due to this push and some of the population thinks there is prosperity for all on the otherside of the meat processing machine we’re pushing everyone toward. Groceries are going to get more expensive. Every dollar we spend on over building AI infrastructure is a dollar we never get back. We could use this money for other things such a…
> The general cost of living is sky rocketing, largely due to this push
How are cost of living increases tied to AI investment?
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#48Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.
What if the power gained by AI models is less than expected?
What is mightier than the pen? They have guns too.
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#49> Foreigners poured a record $290bn into US stocks in the second quarter and now own about 30 per cent of the market — the highest share in post-second world war history. Europeans and Canadians have been boycotting American goods but continue buying US stocks in bulk — especially the tech giants. I fail to find any plausible explanation for this other than the fact that yes, it is a bubble. Tesla, a car company faci…
> Do people actually buy into the absurdity of humanoid robots and robotaxis?
Have you ever taken a Waymo? You see them on every street in SF now.
Re: America is now one big bet on AI
#50Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.
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