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America is now one big bet on AI

ft.com

31–40 of 193 posts

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#31

Sloppy opinion piece. Stock market increases are bad because it makes rich people happy, but select US sectors are lagging behind Europe which is somehow also bad. Low immigration resulting in a labor force squeeze is bad, but this is offset by reduced demand because of AI, which is, you guessed it, also bad lol

Why is this sloppy. The author is not saying that AI is bad but that the current capital being invested in the UD is mostly betting on AI. If you remove AI then what is left?

> If you remove AI then what is left?

AI

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#32
post #9

> No nation has seen an immigration boom-bust cycle near the scale of the one roiling America. Net immigration nearly quadrupled after 2020 to peak at well over 3mn in 2023, but the backlash led by President Donald Trump sent that figure into freefall. This year only around 400,000 net new arrivals are expected, and that could be the trend in the coming years. If true, that's <1% of the population?

There aren't enough jobs because we are stuck in a money-printing loop thanks to the baby boomers. The dynamics and debasement floor prevent new entrants from entering the market while regulation cripples those trying to keep things going. Concentrating and sieving the money-supply into non-productive companies on a moonshot bet to eliminate capital formation and one party that forms the basis for the economic cycle.

Demographics are destiny. Its pretty clear that we'll be taking the accelerated japan route, and the worst of that with japan is the fact that we bailed it out, no ones around to bail us out.

We basically have a generation of children who are now the old, who spurned and wasted the resources given to them in poor stewardship, and who failed to pass them and the advantaged environment on to their children, instead choosing tyrannical to disadvantage their children through control and clutching power to the last of their days and all the destruction that comes thereafter. A fall of empire.

They clutched at the resources so heavily and disadvantaged their own children to the point where significantly less people were in a position to actually be having children themselves, both because of the intolerable and torturous acts which have become so commonplace today but also the resources required to keep the old alive significantly outweighed the resources to foster children. There is an opportunity cost for everything. A Deflationary depopulation is almost inevitable.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#33
> Foreigners poured a record $290bn into US stocks in the second quarter and now own about 30 per cent of the market — the highest share in post-second world war history. Europeans and Canadians have been boycotting American goods but continue buying US stocks in bulk — especially the tech giants.

I fail to find any plausible explanation for this other than the fact that yes, it is a bubble. Tesla, a car company facing declining sales, an executive exodus, and a CEO who’s more of a liability, is almost a $1.5T company now. An absurd P/E of 259. Sure, P/E isn't the most realiable metric. But, for a company with declining sales, and onslaught from Chinese competitors, a P/E of anything above 50 is absolutely ludicrous. Do people actually buy into the absurdity of humanoid robots and robotaxis?

"Be fearful when everyone is greedy." I’ve cashed out of U.S. stocks, and I think it's wise thing to do when craze is at its peak.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#34
post #3

While it's all true, I think it's exciting that there's a country that's not afraid of betting when all the signs point to AI being accerelated. USA already bet on software when it let China overtake manufacturing. Now the only worse thing to betting on AI would be slowing it down inside USA.

This is something I don’t get. The general cost of living is sky rocketing, largely due to this push and some of the population thinks there is prosperity for all on the otherside of the meat processing machine we’re pushing everyone toward. Groceries are going to get more expensive. Every dollar we spend on over building AI infrastructure is a dollar we never get back. We could use this money for other things such a…

What's not to get? Groceries, healthcare, and education aren't expensive for them to afford, why would they want to invest their money and time in making those things more affordable for poor people? Better to invest all their resources making a robot slave army. Then it doesn't matter how unaffordable anything is to the poors, they can just die. Win win.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#35
post #28

Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.

Let's just say this point needs further exposition. Your argument appears to be that the stock market won't drop because stocks are held by members of the public whose opinions are controlled by technology? Or... that robots are holding the stock? It doesn't have the rhetorical punch, but my boring traditional economics opinion is that it's probably a bubble because realized profit from these overvalued stocks is too…

Hhajja

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is deeply, deeply untrue. There is a direct relationship between low unemployment and high inflation.

Does inflation rise faster than wages? In the US with unionization so suppressed labor has no leverage.

We saw under Biden that wages for most people outpaced price inflation, but "most" isn't "all," and it was disproportionately working out well for people who were wealthier.

Regardless, people loathe inflation even if their wages keep up with it. It makes them feel like their career progress is being robbed from them.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

This is deeply, deeply untrue. There is a direct relationship between low unemployment and high inflation.

Inflation is only bad when you have cash.

On the other hand low unemployment creates a pressure to raise wages.

Which causes the inflation because you can charge people more.

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#39
Key quote:

> The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year.

In other words, investment in AI is a massive private-sector stimulus program, powering economic growth.

Questions for which no one knows the answer include:

* Will these AI investments earn a positive rate of return in the aggregate?

* Without these investments on AI and their second-order economic effects, would the US economy be growing?

* Are the higher-order effects of AI investments temporary, or can they become self-sustaining (for example, via creation of new jobs and industries)?

Re: America is now one big bet on AI

#40
post #28

Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.

Let's just say this point needs further exposition. Your argument appears to be that the stock market won't drop because stocks are held by members of the public whose opinions are controlled by technology? Or... that robots are holding the stock? It doesn't have the rhetorical punch, but my boring traditional economics opinion is that it's probably a bubble because realized profit from these overvalued stocks is too…

> it's probably a bubble because realized profit from these overvalued stocks is too far out in the future to buffer the inevitable liquidity shocks inherent in modern economies

You just need to save the bubble with an even bigger bubble.

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