The thing is, the models do work. They add value to me each and every day, to a degree almost no other tech has done before. But that doesn't take away the fact that this is extremely expensive stuff (not for me, but for the companies pushing the envelope), far too expensive. And it is really taking its toll on other resources, like electricity.
I think the thing that most of the folks miss is exactly that. AI is adding value and it’s here to stay. Absolutely the OpenAI story is looking concerning but I am not sure it is this doomsday AI winter.
The current bubble is getting scary. When this thing pops the blast it’s going to be a real mess. The big tech firms will hurt, fire some execs in a show of “making changes,” do a bunch of layoffs across “AI” teams to show the market they’re pivoting and getting costs in order, and move on. The startups ecosystem will suffer extensive and catastrophic damage. The funding ecosystem will be set back years as this wipes…
> I hope I’m wrong I kind of hope you're right. Any "hyped" industry/sector is bound to eventually needing to get back to reality, and focus on things that actually work, rather than spraying and praying prototypes and over-hyping them. The individuals and companies building real products that actually improve something will stick around, either as they are, or at least as ideas, and most of the interesting stuff ten…
> I kind of hope you're right.
I couldn't care less if big tech gets knocked down a peg, but in many quarters the AI boom is what's keeping the lights on. A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people, it's not exactly something I'm cheering on...
The current bubble is getting scary. When this thing pops the blast it’s going to be a real mess. The big tech firms will hurt, fire some execs in a show of “making changes,” do a bunch of layoffs across “AI” teams to show the market they’re pivoting and getting costs in order, and move on. The startups ecosystem will suffer extensive and catastrophic damage. The funding ecosystem will be set back years as this wipes…
What about the rest of the economy? Deutsche Bank recently said that the AI hype is the only thing holding the US stock market together. And if that crashes, it tends to ripple world wide. Scary stuff, at least to someone who doesn't know all that much about market resilience. With what little I know, I'm hoping for a soft pop with slow deflation. But big tech seems to just pump harder right now.
I hope it all burns. Zero sympathy whatsoever for AI-anything. It's all a heaping pile of trash.
Dang. My kids are just getting the hang of using ChatGPT as a way to generate random quizzes and additional homework problems; to the point where both of them just automatically use the AI to "fill in the gaps" each evening. (Prior to AI, additional HW was met with less enthusiasm than you'd think!) I told my wife that the billionaire class spent the last few decades cheating the tax system (and, thus, the education…
Don't worry about this. There's no way these tools are going away. If this bubble bursts it may wipe out the incentive to continue this frenzied race to build novel AI, but ChatGPT et al won't be shut down, and even if they were, the open-source LLMs comparable to the cutting-edge of 6 months ago will still be online and available. Plus, even if AI progress froze solid tomorrow, I think it would take decades before we'd start to anywhere-near-saturate the potential space of applications & use cases to really do the current tech level justice. (Also, even post-bubble, AI progress would not freeze solid, to put it mildly)
The current bubble is getting scary. When this thing pops the blast it’s going to be a real mess. The big tech firms will hurt, fire some execs in a show of “making changes,” do a bunch of layoffs across “AI” teams to show the market they’re pivoting and getting costs in order, and move on. The startups ecosystem will suffer extensive and catastrophic damage. The funding ecosystem will be set back years as this wipes…
> I hope I’m wrong I kind of hope you're right. Any "hyped" industry/sector is bound to eventually needing to get back to reality, and focus on things that actually work, rather than spraying and praying prototypes and over-hyping them. The individuals and companies building real products that actually improve something will stick around, either as they are, or at least as ideas, and most of the interesting stuff ten…
The only upside here is if a few notables end up penny-less and dressed in orange. The mockery of solvent business practices, greed and theft is insane in this bubble. From copyrighted material to accounting fraud, I'm sure the fallout motion pictures will be entertaining some day.
What about the rest of the economy? Deutsche Bank recently said that the AI hype is the only thing holding the US stock market together. And if that crashes, it tends to ripple world wide. Scary stuff, at least to someone who doesn't know all that much about market resilience. With what little I know, I'm hoping for a soft pop with slow deflation. But big tech seems to just pump harder right now.
I hope it all burns. Zero sympathy whatsoever for AI-anything. It's all a heaping pile of trash.
You hope the garbage heap surrounding your house burns?
What about the rest of the economy? Deutsche Bank recently said that the AI hype is the only thing holding the US stock market together. And if that crashes, it tends to ripple world wide. Scary stuff, at least to someone who doesn't know all that much about market resilience. With what little I know, I'm hoping for a soft pop with slow deflation. But big tech seems to just pump harder right now.
I hope it all burns. Zero sympathy whatsoever for AI-anything. It's all a heaping pile of trash.
You're hoping for a full on market crash? I don't mind AI hype companies crashing, would probably low key enjoy it with popcorn. But from what I understand, it's not that localised.