381–390 of 531 posts
I'm trying to pinpoint the canary in the financial coal mine here. There will be a time to pull out of the market and I really want to have an idea of when. I know, timing the market, but this isn't some small market correction we're talking about here.
TQQQ exists. There is a liquid market of TQQQ puts.
I feel kind of like a Luddite sometimes but I don't understand why EVERYONE is rushing to use AI? I use a couple different agents to help me code, and ChatGPT has largely replaced Google in my everyday use, but I genuinely don't understand the value proposition of every other companies offerings. I really feel like we're in the same "Get it out first, figure out what it is good for later" bubble we had like 7 years a…
I used BofA chat bot embedded in their app recently because I was unable to find a way to request a pin for my card. I was expecting the chat bot to find the link to their website where I can request the pin, and would consider a deep link within their app to the pin request UI a great UX. Instead, the bot asked a few questions to clarify which account is for the pin and submitted a request to mail the pin, just like…
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1 Trillion US dollars? 1 trillion dollars is justified because people use chatGPT instead of google sometimes?
Yes. Google Search on its own generates about $200b/y, so capturing Google Search's market would be worth $1t based on 5x multiplier. GPT is more valuable than search because GPT has more control over the content than Search has.
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Find me an FSD that can drive in non-Californian real world situations. A foot of snow, black ice, a sand drift.
>A foot of snow, black ice, a sand drift. What else, a meter of lava flow? Forest fire? Tsunami? Tornado? How about pick conditions where humans actually can drive.
I notice you conveniently left off "foot of snow" from your critique. Something that is perfectly ordinary "condition where humans actually drive."
Many years, millions of Americans evacuate ahead of hurricanes. Does that not count?
I, and hundreds of thousands of other people, have lived in places where sand drifts across roads are a thing. Also, sandstorms, dense fog, snert, ice storms, dust devils, and hundreds of other conditions in which "humans actually can [and do] drive."
FSD is like AI: Picking the low-hanging fruit and calling it a "win."
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I think text is the ultimate interface. A company can just build and maintain very strong internal APIs and punt on the UX component. For instance, suppose I'm using figma, I want to just screenshot what I want it to look like and it can get me started. Or if I'm using Notion, I want a better search. Nothing necessarily generative, but something like "what was our corporate address". It also replaces help if well int…
Text is not the ultimate interface. We have the direct proof: every single classroom and almost every single company where programmers play important roles has whiteboards or blackboards to draw diagrams on. But now LLMs can read images as well, so I'm still incredibly bull on them.
Speech is worse than text, since you can rearrange text but rearranging speech is really difficult.
Also no one is talking about how exposed we are to Taiwan. Nvidia, AMD, Apple, any company building out GPUs (so Google, Microsoft, Meta etc), even Intel a bit, are all manufacturing everything with one company, and it's largely happening in Taiwan. If China invades Taiwan, why wouldn't TSMC, Nvidia and AMD stock prices go to zero?
They also could just send a big rocket barrage onto the factories. I assume it would be very hard to defend from such a short distance.
Then most ports and cities in taiwan are towards east (with big mountains on the western side). Would be very bad if China decides to blockade it by shooting ships from their main land...
Also very little the west could do imo. A land invasion in china or a nuclear war don't seem very reasonable.
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What does it mean for the language model to "care" about something? How would that matter against the operator selling advertisers the right to instruct it about what the relevant facts are?
I think it might be like when Grok was programmed to talk about white genocide and to support Musk's views. It always shoehorned that stuff in but when you asked about it it readily explained that it seemed like disinformation and openly admitted that Musk had a history of using his business to exert political sway. It's maybe not really "caring" but they are harder to cajole than just "advertise this for us."
Once that is resolved then guiding the model to only recommend or mention specific brands will flow right in.
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This is an odd anecdote to ask "show your work." I don't catalog shows and episodes where any particular topic comes up, and I follow over 100 podcasts so I don't have a specific list you can fact check me on. Personally I could care less if that means you choose not to believe that I hear the Taiwan risk come up often enough.
> I follow over 100 podcasts How? Do you read summaries? Listen at 3x speed 5 hours a day?
I don't think it'll contract. The people dumping their money into AI think we are at end of days, new order for humanity type point, and they're willing to risk a large part of their fortune to ensure that they remain part of the empowered elite in this new era. It's an all hands on deck thing and only hard diminishing returns that make the AI takeoff story look implausible are going to cause a retrenchment.
It's probably exacerbated by the fact that everyone invest money now, I get daily ads from all my banking apps telling me to buy stocks and cryptos. People know they'll never get anywhere by working or saving, so they're more willing to gamble, high risk high reward, but they have nothing to lose