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Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

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Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#351

I'm an interventional radiologist with a master's in computer science. People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over. Can AI read diagnostic images better than a radiologist? Almost certainly the answer is (or will be) yes. Will radiologists be replaced? Almost certainly the answer is no. Why not? Medical risk. Unless the law changes, a radiologist will have to sign off on each imaging report. So say yo…

>People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over

AI will probably never taking over, what we really need is AI working in tandem with radiologist and complementing their work to help with their busy schedule (or limited number of radiologist).

The OP title can also be changed to "Demand for human cardiologist is at an all-time high", and is still be true.

For example in CVDs detection cardiologist need to diagnose the patient properly, and if the patient not happy with the diagnostic he can get a second opinion from another cardiologist, but cardiologist number is very limited even more limited than radiologist.

For most of the countries in the world, only several hundreds to several thousands registered cardiologist per country, making the ratio about 1:100,000 cardiologist to population ratio.

People expecting cardiologist to go through their ECG readings but do you know that reading ECG is very cumbersome. Let's say you have 5 minutes ECG signals for the minimum requirement for AFib detection as per guideline. The standard ECG is 12-lead resulting in 12 x 5 x 60 = 3600 beats even for the minimum 5 minutes durations requirements (assuming 1 minute ECG equals to 60 beats). Then of course we have Holter ECG with typical 24-hour readings that increase the duration considerably and that's why almost all Holter reading now is automated. But current ECG automated detection has very low accuracy because their accuracy of their detection methods (statistics/AI/ML) are bounded by the beat detection algorithm for example the venerable Pan-Tompkins for the fiducial time-domain approach [1].

The cardiologist will rather spent their time for more interesting activities like teaching future cardiologists, performing expensive procedures like ICD or pacemaker, or having their once in a blue moon holidays instead of reading monotonous patients' ECGs.

I think this is why ECG reading automation with AI/ML is necessary to complement the cardiologist but the trick is to increase the sensitivity part of the accuracy to very high value preferably 100% so the missing potential patients is minimized for the expert and cardiologist in the loop exercise.

[1] Pan–Tompkins algorithm:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan%E2%80%93Tompkins_algorithm

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a long time skeptic of self-driving cars. However, Waymo has changed that for me. I spend a lot of time as a pedestrian in Austin, and they are far safer than your usual Austin driver, and they also follow the law more often. I always accept them when I call an Uber as well, and it's been a similar experience as a passenger. I kinda hate what the Tesla stuff has done, because it makes it easier to dismiss those…

Yeah we don't need to compare robots to the best driver or human, just the average, for an improvement. However, like railroad safety is expensive heavily regulated, self driving car companies have the same issue. Decentralized driving decentralizes risk. so when I have my _own_ robot to do it, it'll be easy and cheap.

> Yeah we don't need to compare robots to the best driver or human, just the average, for an improvement.

Sure, in theory. In practice, nobody is going to give up control on the basis that the machine is "slightly better than average". Those who consider the safety data when making their decision will demand a system that's just as good as the best human drivers in most aspects.

And speaking of Waymo, let's not forget that they only operate in a handful of places. Their safety data doesn't generalize outside of those areas.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#353
I sent a lady today to a radiologist for a core biopsy of a likely malignancy.

And a man to a radiologist for a lumbar perineural injection.

And a person to a radiologist for a subacromial bursa injection.

And a month ago I sent a woman to a radiologist to have adenomyosis embolised.

Also talked to a patient today who I will probably send to a radiologist to have a postnephrectomy urinary leak embolised.

Is an LLM going to do that ?

There is the another issue.

If AI commoditises a skill, competent people with options will just shift to another skill while offloading the commoditised skill to someone else.

Due to automated ECG interpretation built into every machine, reimbursement has plummeted. So I have let my ECG interpretation skills rust while focusing on my neurology and movement disorder skills.They are fun ... I also did part of a master's in AI decades ago ( Prolog, Lisp , good times, machine vision, good times...)

So now if someone needs a ECG, I am probably going to send them to a cardiologist who will do a ECG, Holter, Echo, Stress Echo etc. Income for the nice friendly cardiologist, extra cost and time for the patient and the health system.

I can imagine like food deserts, entire AI deserts in medicine that nobody want to work in. A bit like geriatrics, rural medicine and psychiatry these days.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#354

I'm an interventional radiologist with a master's in computer science. People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over. Can AI read diagnostic images better than a radiologist? Almost certainly the answer is (or will be) yes. Will radiologists be replaced? Almost certainly the answer is no. Why not? Medical risk. Unless the law changes, a radiologist will have to sign off on each imaging report. So say yo…

Provided enough political will (and you know that this can be correlated to many factors, like lobbying), laws can be changed.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#355
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like saying that self-driving cars won't ever become a thing because someone behind the wheel needs to be to blame. The article cites AI systems that the FDA already has cleared to operate without a physicians' validation.

Medicine does not work like traffic. There is no reason for a human to care whether the other car is being driven by a machine. Medicine is existential . The job of a doctor is not to look at data, give a diagnosis and leave. A crucial function of practicing doctors is communication and human interaction with their patients. When your life is on the line (and frankly, even if it isn't), you do not want to talk to an…

There's some sort of category error here. Not every doctor is that type of doctor. A radiologist could be a remote interpretation service staffed by humans or by AI, just as sending off blood for a blood test is done in a laboratory.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#356

I sent a lady today to a radiologist for a core biopsy of a likely malignancy. And a man to a radiologist for a lumbar perineural injection. And a person to a radiologist for a subacromial bursa injection. And a month ago I sent a woman to a radiologist to have adenomyosis embolised. Also talked to a patient today who I will probably send to a radiologist to have a postnephrectomy urinary leak embolised. Is an LLM go…

The goal of the healthcare system isn't to make sure that the doctors get paid big bucks. It is, allegedly, to heal people.

Automating as much of that as possible and making healthcare more accessible should be pursued. Just like automated ECG interpretation made basic ECG more accessible.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least you can dodge false diagnosis which is important especially when it can cause irreversible damage to your body

Under the assumption that AI has perfect accuracy. Perhaps you dodged the correct diagnosis and get to die 6 months later due to the lack of treatment. Might as well flip a coin.

Doesn't have to be "perfect accuracy". It just has to beat the accuracy of the doctor you would have gone to otherwise.

Which is often a very, very low bar.

What do you call a doctor who was last in his class in medical school? A doctor.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#358

I'm an interventional radiologist with a master's in computer science. People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over. Can AI read diagnostic images better than a radiologist? Almost certainly the answer is (or will be) yes. Will radiologists be replaced? Almost certainly the answer is no. Why not? Medical risk. Unless the law changes, a radiologist will have to sign off on each imaging report. So say yo…

>People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over AI will probably never taking over, what we really need is AI working in tandem with radiologist and complementing their work to help with their busy schedule (or limited number of radiologist). The OP title can also be changed to "Demand for human cardiologist is at an all-time high", and is still be true. For example in CVDs detection cardiologist need to…

As in.. for small durations of "never" ? ..

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#359
post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like saying that self-driving cars won't ever become a thing because someone behind the wheel needs to be to blame. The article cites AI systems that the FDA already has cleared to operate without a physicians' validation.

Medicine does not work like traffic. There is no reason for a human to care whether the other car is being driven by a machine. Medicine is existential . The job of a doctor is not to look at data, give a diagnosis and leave. A crucial function of practicing doctors is communication and human interaction with their patients. When your life is on the line (and frankly, even if it isn't), you do not want to talk to an…

So, you need a moral support human? Like a big plushie, but more alive?

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Under the assumption that AI has perfect accuracy. Perhaps you dodged the correct diagnosis and get to die 6 months later due to the lack of treatment. Might as well flip a coin.

Doesn't have to be "perfect accuracy". It just has to beat the accuracy of the doctor you would have gone to otherwise. Which is often a very, very low bar. What do you call a doctor who was last in his class in medical school? A doctor.

> Doesn't have to be "perfect accuracy". It just has to beat the accuracy of the doctor you would have gone to otherwise.

They made an absolute statement claiming that AI will "at least" let them dodge false diagnosis, that implies a diagnostic false positive rate of ~0%. Otherwise how can you possibly be so confident that you "dodged" anything? You still need a second opinion (or third).

If a doctor diagnosed you with cancer and AI said that you're healthy, would you conclude that the diagnosis was false and skip treatment? It's easy to make frivolous statements like these when your life isn't on the line.

> What do you call a doctor who was last in his class in medical school? A doctor.

How original, they must've passed medical school, certification, and years of specialization by pure luck.

Do you ask to see every doctor's report card before deciding to go with the AI or do you just assume they're all idiots?

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