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Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

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Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#271

Post by rayiner »

rtpg wrote: post #255
newyankee wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this indicates lack of incentives to reduce healthcare costs by optimisation. If AI can do something well enough , and AI + humans surpass humans leading to costs reductions/ increased throughput this should be reflected in the workflows. I feel that human processes have inertia and for lack of a better word, gatekeepers feel that new, novel approaches should be adopted slowly and which is why we are not seeing t…

The assumption is that more productive AI + humans leads to cost reductions. But if everyone involved has a profit motive, you end up cutting at those cost reductions. "We'll save you 100 bucks, so give us 50", done at the AI model level, the AI model repackager, the software suite that the hospital is using, the system integrators that manage the software suite installation for the hospital, the reseller of the inte…

Nobody has a profit motive since doctors get their bills paid per procedure and health insurers have a profit cap.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#272

Post by epcoa »

layoric wrote: post #264
epcoa wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For real though how close are we to a product that takes an order for an ED or inpatient CT A/P, protocols it then reads the images and can read the chart and spits out a dictated report without any human intervention that ends up usable as is even 90% of the time.

Right, the last 10% will be expensive or you accept a potential 10% failure rate.

Maybe I should have said 5%. 90% was a made up threshold. How close are we to even a basic “level 5”, ED doc puts in order for indication: “concern for sepsis, lol”, rad tech does their thing and a finished read appears, with no additional human involved except for maybe a review but not even 50% of the time is any addendum needed.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#273

Post by dkarl »

newyankee wrote: post #223
aabajian wrote: post #209

I'm an interventional radiologist with a master's in computer science. People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over. Can AI read diagnostic images better than a radiologist? Almost certainly the answer is (or will be) yes. Will radiologists be replaced? Almost certainly the answer is no. Why not? Medical risk. Unless the law changes, a radiologist will have to sign off on each imaging report. So say yo…

But this indicates lack of incentives to reduce healthcare costs by optimisation. If AI can do something well enough , and AI + humans surpass humans leading to costs reductions/ increased throughput this should be reflected in the workflows. I feel that human processes have inertia and for lack of a better word, gatekeepers feel that new, novel approaches should be adopted slowly and which is why we are not seeing t…

Risks in traditional medicine are standardized by standardized training and credentialing. We haven't established ways to evaluate the risks of transferring diagnostic responsibility to AIs.

> All that is needed is an external actor to take the risk and show a step change improvement

Who's going to benefit? Doctors might prioritize the security of their livelihood over access to care. Capital will certainly prioritize the bottom line over life and death[0].

The cynical take is that for the time being, doctors will hold back progress, until capital finds a way to pay them off. Then capital will control AI and control diagnosis, letting them decide who is sick and what kind of care they need.

The optimistic take is that doctors maintain control but embrace AI and use it to increase the standard of care, but like you point out, the pace of that might be generational instead of keeping pace with technological progress.

[0] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/death-rates-rose-hospit...

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#274

Post by scheme271 »

newyankee wrote: post #223
aabajian wrote: post #209

I'm an interventional radiologist with a master's in computer science. People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over. Can AI read diagnostic images better than a radiologist? Almost certainly the answer is (or will be) yes. Will radiologists be replaced? Almost certainly the answer is no. Why not? Medical risk. Unless the law changes, a radiologist will have to sign off on each imaging report. So say yo…

But this indicates lack of incentives to reduce healthcare costs by optimisation. If AI can do something well enough , and AI + humans surpass humans leading to costs reductions/ increased throughput this should be reflected in the workflows. I feel that human processes have inertia and for lack of a better word, gatekeepers feel that new, novel approaches should be adopted slowly and which is why we are not seeing t…

The article points out that the AI + humans approach gives poorer results. Humans end up deferring to or just accepting the AI output without double checking. So corner cases, and situations where the AI doesn't do well just end up going through the system.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#275

Post by mandevil »

treespace8 wrote: post #178
dingnuts wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's also widely believed that the cars are remotely operated, not autonomous. they are likely semi autonomous, which is still cool, but I wish they'd be honest about it

After learning that the Amazon Go store was power by hundreds of people watching video because the AI could not handle it was a real eye opener for me. Is this why Waymo is slow to expand, not enough remote drivers? Maybe that is where we need to be focused, better remote driving?

Waymo does not believe that remote drivers are responsive enough to be able to safely operate. Safety drivers communicate with the self-driving system, and can set waypoints etc. for the navigation system, but the delays inherent make it unsafe, is what the Waymo people say publicly at least.

The reason that Waymo is slow to expand is that they have to carefully and extensively LiDAR map every single road of their operating area before they can open up service in an area. Then while operating they simply do a difference algo on what each LiDAR sees at the moment and the truth data they have stored, and boom, anything that can potentially move pops right out. It works, it just takes a lot of prep- and a lot of people to keep on top of things too. For example, while my kid's school was doing construction they refused to drop off in the parking lot, but when the construction ended they became willing. So there must be a human who is monitoring construction zones across the metro area, and marking up on their internal maps when areas are off limits.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#276

Post by scheme271 »

smrtinsert wrote: post #243
aabajian wrote: post #209

I'm an interventional radiologist with a master's in computer science. People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over. Can AI read diagnostic images better than a radiologist? Almost certainly the answer is (or will be) yes. Will radiologists be replaced? Almost certainly the answer is no. Why not? Medical risk. Unless the law changes, a radiologist will have to sign off on each imaging report. So say yo…

At some point medical equipment is certified in some way for use. Could the same happen for imaging AIs?

The article mentions a system for diabetic retinopathy diagnosis that is certified and has liability coverage. It sounds like it's the only one where that occurs. For everything else, malpractice insurance explicitly excludes any AI assisted diagnosis.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#277

Post by kbos87 »

aabajian wrote: post #209

I'm an interventional radiologist with a master's in computer science. People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over. Can AI read diagnostic images better than a radiologist? Almost certainly the answer is (or will be) yes. Will radiologists be replaced? Almost certainly the answer is no. Why not? Medical risk. Unless the law changes, a radiologist will have to sign off on each imaging report. So say yo…

This is like saying that self-driving cars won't ever become a thing because someone behind the wheel needs to be to blame. The article cites AI systems that the FDA already has cleared to operate without a physicians' validation.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#278

Post by spongebobstoes »

dkarl wrote: post #273
newyankee wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this indicates lack of incentives to reduce healthcare costs by optimisation. If AI can do something well enough , and AI + humans surpass humans leading to costs reductions/ increased throughput this should be reflected in the workflows. I feel that human processes have inertia and for lack of a better word, gatekeepers feel that new, novel approaches should be adopted slowly and which is why we are not seeing t…

Risks in traditional medicine are standardized by standardized training and credentialing. We haven't established ways to evaluate the risks of transferring diagnostic responsibility to AIs. > All that is needed is an external actor to take the risk and show a step change improvement Who's going to benefit? Doctors might prioritize the security of their livelihood over access to care. Capital will certainly prioritiz…

Having paid $300 for a 10 minute doctor visit, in which I was confidently diagnosed incorrectly, it will not take much for me to minimize my doctor visits and take care into my own hands whenever possible.

I will benefit from medical AI. There will soon come a point where I will pay a premium for my medical care to be reviewed by an AI, not the other way around.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#279

Post by dkarl »

spongebobstoes wrote: post #278
dkarl wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Risks in traditional medicine are standardized by standardized training and credentialing. We haven't established ways to evaluate the risks of transferring diagnostic responsibility to AIs. > All that is needed is an external actor to take the risk and show a step change improvement Who's going to benefit? Doctors might prioritize the security of their livelihood over access to care. Capital will certainly prioritiz…

Having paid $300 for a 10 minute doctor visit, in which I was confidently diagnosed incorrectly, it will not take much for me to minimize my doctor visits and take care into my own hands whenever possible. I will benefit from medical AI. There will soon come a point where I will pay a premium for my medical care to be reviewed by an AI, not the other way around.

You might pay for a great AI diagnosis, but what matters is the diagnosis recognized by whoever pays for care. If you depend on insurance to pay for care, you're at the mercy of whatever AI they recognize. If you depend on a socialized medical care plan, you're at the mercy of whatever AI is approved by them.

Paying for AI diagnosis on your own will only be helpful if you can shoulder the costs of treatment on your own.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#280

Post by robotresearcher »

DarkNova6 wrote: post #84
kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

It's not about optimism. It is well established in the industry that Tesla's hardware-stack gives them 98% accuracy at the very most. But those voices are drowned by the marketing bravado. In the case of Musk it has worked out. His lies have earned him a fortune and now he asks Tesla to pay him out with a casual 1 trillion paycheck.

What does ‘accuracy’ mean here?
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