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Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

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Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#201

Post by nebula8804 »

jampekka wrote: post #136
basisword wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember Bill Gates said: "We overestimate what we can do in one year and underestimate what we can do in ten years".

Not Musk. He promised full autonomy within 3 years about 10 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

Musk and Gates have very different philosophies.

Gates seems more calm and collected having gone through the trauma of almost losing his empire.

Musk is a loose cannon having never suffered the consequences of his actions (ie. early Gates and Jobs) and so he sometimes gets things right but will eventually crash and burn having not had the fortune of failing and maturing early on in his career(he is now past the midpoint of his career with not enough buffer to recover).

They are both dangerous in their own ways.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#202

Post by jeremyjh »

GOD_Over_Djinn wrote: post #197
zulban wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I realized long ago that full unattended self driving requires AGI. Yikes. I recommend you take some introductory courses on AI and theory of computation.

You should either elaborate on your argument, or at least provide further reading that clarifies your point of contention. This kind of low effort nerd-sniping contributes nothing.

GP's statement is completely unsupported, the burden is on them.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#203

Post by 1718627440 »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #179
1718627440 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When it weren't for the font it might be anomalies in the image taking or even in the encoder software. You can never really be sure, what exactly the ML is detecting.

You can give it the same tests the human radiologists take in school. They do take tests, don't they? They don't all score 100% every time, do they?

The point here is that the radiologists has a concept of knowing which light patterns are sensible to draw conclusions from and which not, because the radiologist has a concept of real world 3D objects.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#204

Post by zahlman »

pjdesno wrote: post #103

The best story I heard about machine learning and radiology was when folks were racing to try to detect COVID in lung X-rays. As I recall, one group had fairly good success, but eventually someone figured out that their data set had images from a low-COVID hospital and a high-COVID hospital, and the lettering on the images used different fonts. The ML model was detecting the font, not the COVID. [a bit of googling la…

I remember a claim that someone was trying to use an ML model to detect COVID by analyzing the sound of the patient coughing.

I couldn't for the life of me understand how this was supposed to work. If the coughing of COVID patients (as opposed to patients with other respiratory illnesses) actually sounds meaningfully different in a statistically meaningful way (and why did they suppose that it would? Phlegm is phlegm, surely), surely a human listener would have been able to figure it out easily.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#205

Post by nebula8804 »

shagie wrote: post #184
christianqchung wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I have no idea if Waymo will ever be a rural thing honestly, mostly for economic reasons. I'm skeptical it would get serious suburban usage this decade too. But for major cities where less than 80% of people own cars, test time doesn't seem to be making a difference. They've been expanding in Austin and Atlanta, seemingly with less prep time than Phoenix and San Fran.

They keep expanding in places where it doesn't snow. They've got testing facilities in Detroit ( https://mcity.umich.edu/what-we-do/mcity-test-facility/ ) ... but I want to see it work while it is snowing or after it has snowed in the upper midwest. https://youtu.be/YvcfpO1k1fc?si=hONzbMEv22jvTLFS - has suggestions that they're starting testing. If AI driving only works in California, New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas..…

Define the rest of the country?

If you refer to rural areas, thats 1/7 of the population and ~10% of GDP. They can be tossed aside like they are in other avenues.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#206

Post by elijaht »

dingnuts wrote: post #158
lomase wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is a 21 year old company that only operates on a small part of the US after $10 billions of funding.

it's also widely believed that the cars are remotely operated, not autonomous. they are likely semi autonomous, which is still cool, but I wish they'd be honest about it

Is that true? Nearly everything online argues against that

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#207

Post by 1718627440 »

Avalaxy wrote: post #189
1718627440 wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When it weren't for the font it might be anomalies in the image taking or even in the encoder software. You can never really be sure, what exactly the ML is detecting.

Why not? That's what Grad-CAM is for right?

What if the ML takes the conclusion exactly from the right pixels, but the cause is a rasterization issue.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#208

Post by zulban »

GOD_Over_Djinn wrote: post #197
zulban wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I realized long ago that full unattended self driving requires AGI. Yikes. I recommend you take some introductory courses on AI and theory of computation.

You should either elaborate on your argument, or at least provide further reading that clarifies your point of contention. This kind of low effort nerd-sniping contributes nothing.

Responding to ridiculous uncited wild comments doesn't require a phd thesis paper, my friend.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#209

Post by aabajian »

I'm an interventional radiologist with a master's in computer science. People outside radiology don't get why AI hasn't taken over.

Can AI read diagnostic images better than a radiologist? Almost certainly the answer is (or will be) yes.

Will radiologists be replaced? Almost certainly the answer is no.

Why not? Medical risk. Unless the law changes, a radiologist will have to sign off on each imaging report. So say you have an AI that reads images primarily and writes pristine reports. The bottleneck will still be the time it takes for the radiologist to look at the images and validate the automated report. Today, radiologist read very quickly, with a private practice rads averaging maybe 60-100 studies per day (XRs, ultrasounds, MRIs, CTs, nuclear medicine studies, mammograms, etc). This is near the limit of what a human being can reasonably do. Yes, there will be slight gains at not having to dictate anything, but still having to validate everything takes nearly as much time.

Now, I'm sure there's a cavalier radiologist out htere who would just click "sign, sign, sign..." but you know there's a malpractice attorney just waiting for that lawsuit.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#210

Post by calvinmorrison »

steveklabnik wrote: post #195
christianqchung wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at Waymo, not Robotaxi. Waymo is essentially the self driving vision I had as a kid, and ridership is growing exponentially as they expand. It's also very safe if you believe their statistics[0]. I think there's a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term that seems to apply here, though the radiologist narrative was definitely wrong. [0] https://waymo.com/saf…

I am a long time skeptic of self-driving cars. However, Waymo has changed that for me. I spend a lot of time as a pedestrian in Austin, and they are far safer than your usual Austin driver, and they also follow the law more often. I always accept them when I call an Uber as well, and it's been a similar experience as a passenger. I kinda hate what the Tesla stuff has done, because it makes it easier to dismiss those…

Yeah we don't need to compare robots to the best driver or human, just the average, for an improvement.

However, like railroad safety is expensive heavily regulated, self driving car companies have the same issue.

Decentralized driving decentralizes risk.

so when I have my _own_ robot to do it, it'll be easy and cheap.

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