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Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

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Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#191

Post by zulban »

phkahler wrote: post #165
kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

I realized long ago that full unattended self driving requires AGI. I think Elon finally figured that out. So now LLMs are going to evolve into AGI any moment. Um no. Tesla (and others) have effectively been working on AGI for 10 years with no luck

> I realized long ago that full unattended self driving requires AGI.

Yikes.

I recommend you take some introductory courses on AI and theory of computation.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#192

Post by YeGoblynQueenne »

dingnuts wrote: post #158
lomase wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is a 21 year old company that only operates on a small part of the US after $10 billions of funding.

it's also widely believed that the cars are remotely operated, not autonomous. they are likely semi autonomous, which is still cool, but I wish they'd be honest about it

They are:

Much like phone-a-friend, when the Waymo vehicle encounters a particular situation on the road, the autonomous driver can reach out to a human fleet response agent for additional information to contextualize its environment. The Waymo Driver does not rely solely on the inputs it receives from the fleet response agent and it is in control of the vehicle at all times. As the Waymo Driver waits for input from fleet response, and even after receiving it, the Waymo Driver continues using available information to inform its decisions. This is important because, given the dynamic conditions on the road, the environment around the car can change, which either remedies the situation or influences how the Waymo Driver should proceed. In fact, the vast majority of such situations are resolved, without assistance, by the Waymo Driver.

https://waymo.com/blog/2024/05/fleet-response/

Although I think they overstate the extent to which the Waymo Driver is capable of independent decisions. So, honest, ish, I guess.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#193

Post by iamdelirium »

shagie wrote: post #184
christianqchung wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I have no idea if Waymo will ever be a rural thing honestly, mostly for economic reasons. I'm skeptical it would get serious suburban usage this decade too. But for major cities where less than 80% of people own cars, test time doesn't seem to be making a difference. They've been expanding in Austin and Atlanta, seemingly with less prep time than Phoenix and San Fran.

They keep expanding in places where it doesn't snow. They've got testing facilities in Detroit ( https://mcity.umich.edu/what-we-do/mcity-test-facility/ ) ... but I want to see it work while it is snowing or after it has snowed in the upper midwest. https://youtu.be/YvcfpO1k1fc?si=hONzbMEv22jvTLFS - has suggestions that they're starting testing. If AI driving only works in California, New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas..…

They're testing in Denver and NYC so its coming.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#194

Post by omnicognate »

pkdpic wrote: post #74
christianqchung wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at Waymo, not Robotaxi. Waymo is essentially the self driving vision I had as a kid, and ridership is growing exponentially as they expand. It's also very safe if you believe their statistics[0]. I think there's a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term that seems to apply here, though the radiologist narrative was definitely wrong. [0] https://waymo.com/saf…

I agree with both comments here. I wonder what the plausibility of fully autonomous trucking is in the next 10-30 years... Is there any saying that exists about overestimating stuff in the near term and long term but underestimating stuff in the midterm? Ie flying car dreams in the 50s etc.

> ... but underestimating stuff in the midterm? Ie flying car dreams in the 50s etc.

We still don't have flying cars 70 years later, and they don't look any more imminent than they did then. I think the lesson there is more "not every dream eventually gets made a reality".

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#195

Post by steveklabnik »

christianqchung wrote: post #70
kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

Look at Waymo, not Robotaxi. Waymo is essentially the self driving vision I had as a kid, and ridership is growing exponentially as they expand. It's also very safe if you believe their statistics[0]. I think there's a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term that seems to apply here, though the radiologist narrative was definitely wrong. [0] https://waymo.com/saf…

I am a long time skeptic of self-driving cars. However, Waymo has changed that for me.

I spend a lot of time as a pedestrian in Austin, and they are far safer than your usual Austin driver, and they also follow the law more often.

I always accept them when I call an Uber as well, and it's been a similar experience as a passenger.

I kinda hate what the Tesla stuff has done, because it makes it easier to dismiss those who are moving more slowly and focusing on safety and trust.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#196

Post by captainkrtek »

bsder wrote: post #181
hnav wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even though the gulf between Waymo and the next runner up is huge, it too isn't quite ready for primetime IMO. Waymos still suffer from erratic behavior at pickup/dropoff, around pedestrians, badly marked roads and generally jam on the brakes at the first sign of any ambiguity. As much as I appreciate the safety-first approach (table stakes really, they'd get their license pulled if they ever caused a fatality) I am…

> Waymos still suffer from erratic behavior at pickup/dropoff, around pedestrians, badly marked roads and generally jam on the brakes at the first sign of any ambiguity. As do most of the ridesharing drivers I interact with nowadays, sadly. The difference is that Waymo has a trajectory that is getting better while human rideshare drivers have a trajectory that is getting worse.

Society accepts that humans make mistakes and considers it unavoidable, but there exists a much higher bar expected of computers/automation/etc. even if a waymo is objectively safer in terms of incidents per miles driven, one fatality makes headlines and adds scrutiny about “was it avoidable?”, whereas humans we just shrug.

I think the theme of this extends to all areas where we are placing technology to make decisions, but also where no human is accountable for the decision.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#197

Post by GOD_Over_Djinn »

zulban wrote: post #191
phkahler wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I realized long ago that full unattended self driving requires AGI. I think Elon finally figured that out. So now LLMs are going to evolve into AGI any moment. Um no. Tesla (and others) have effectively been working on AGI for 10 years with no luck

> I realized long ago that full unattended self driving requires AGI. Yikes. I recommend you take some introductory courses on AI and theory of computation.

You should either elaborate on your argument, or at least provide further reading that clarifies your point of contention. This kind of low effort nerd-sniping contributes nothing.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#198

Post by nebula8804 »

hnav wrote: post #102
christianqchung wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at Waymo, not Robotaxi. Waymo is essentially the self driving vision I had as a kid, and ridership is growing exponentially as they expand. It's also very safe if you believe their statistics[0]. I think there's a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term that seems to apply here, though the radiologist narrative was definitely wrong. [0] https://waymo.com/saf…

Even though the gulf between Waymo and the next runner up is huge, it too isn't quite ready for primetime IMO. Waymos still suffer from erratic behavior at pickup/dropoff, around pedestrians, badly marked roads and generally jam on the brakes at the first sign of any ambiguity. As much as I appreciate the safety-first approach (table stakes really, they'd get their license pulled if they ever caused a fatality) I am…

I honestly don't think we will have a clear answer to this question anytime soon. People will be in their camps and thats that.

Just to clarify, have you ridden in a Waymo? It didn't seem entirely clear if you just experienced living with Waymo or have ridden in it.

I tried it a few times in LA. What an amazing magical experience. I do agree with most of your assertions. It is just a super careful driver but it does not have the full common sense that a driver in a hectic city like LA has. Sometimes you gotta be more 'human' and that means having the intuition to discard the rules in the heat of the moment (ex. being conscious of how cyclists think instead of just blindly following the rules carefully, this is cultural and computers dont do 'culture').

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#199

Post by code_biologist »

hnav wrote: post #102
christianqchung wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at Waymo, not Robotaxi. Waymo is essentially the self driving vision I had as a kid, and ridership is growing exponentially as they expand. It's also very safe if you believe their statistics[0]. I think there's a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term that seems to apply here, though the radiologist narrative was definitely wrong. [0] https://waymo.com/saf…

Even though the gulf between Waymo and the next runner up is huge, it too isn't quite ready for primetime IMO. Waymos still suffer from erratic behavior at pickup/dropoff, around pedestrians, badly marked roads and generally jam on the brakes at the first sign of any ambiguity. As much as I appreciate the safety-first approach (table stakes really, they'd get their license pulled if they ever caused a fatality) I am…

I've seen a lot of young people (teens especially) cross active streets or cross in front of Waymos on scooters knowing that they'll stop. I try not to do anything too egregious, but I myself have begun using Waymo's conservative behavior as a good way to merge into ultra high density traffic when I'm in a car, or to cross busy streets when they only have a "yield to pedestrian" crosswalk rather than a full crosswalk. The way you blip a Waymo to pay attention and yield is beginning to move into the intersection, lol.

I always wonder if honking at a Waymo does anything. A Waymo stopped for a (very slow) pickup on a very busy one lane street near me, and it could have pulled out of traffic if it had gone about 100 feet further. The 50-ish year old lady behind it laid on her horn for about 30 seconds. Surreal experience, and I'm still not sure if her honking made a difference.

I like Waymos though. Uber is in trouble.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#200

Post by nebula8804 »

captainkrtek wrote: post #196
bsder wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Waymos still suffer from erratic behavior at pickup/dropoff, around pedestrians, badly marked roads and generally jam on the brakes at the first sign of any ambiguity. As do most of the ridesharing drivers I interact with nowadays, sadly. The difference is that Waymo has a trajectory that is getting better while human rideshare drivers have a trajectory that is getting worse.

Society accepts that humans make mistakes and considers it unavoidable, but there exists a much higher bar expected of computers/automation/etc. even if a waymo is objectively safer in terms of incidents per miles driven, one fatality makes headlines and adds scrutiny about “was it avoidable?”, whereas humans we just shrug. I think the theme of this extends to all areas where we are placing technology to make decisio…

Society only cares about the individual and no one else. If Uber/Lyft continue to enshittify with drivers driving garbage broken down cars, drivers with no standards (ie. having just smoked weed) and ever rising rates, eventually people will prefer the Waymos.
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