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Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

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Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#171

Post by gayjew »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #111
pjdesno wrote: post #103

The best story I heard about machine learning and radiology was when folks were racing to try to detect COVID in lung X-rays. As I recall, one group had fairly good success, but eventually someone figured out that their data set had images from a low-COVID hospital and a high-COVID hospital, and the lettering on the images used different fonts. The ML model was detecting the font, not the COVID. [a bit of googling la…

Anecdotes like this are informative as far as they go, but they don't say anything at all about the technique itself. Like your story about the fonts used for labeling, essentially all of the drawbacks cited by the article come down to inadequate or inappropriate training methods and data. Fix that, which will not be hard from a purely-technical standpoint, and you will indeed be able to replace radiologists. Sorry,…

[dead]

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#172

Post by snowwrestler »

samweb3 wrote: post #87

It's interesting to see people fighting so hard to preserve these jobs. Do people want to work that badly? If a magic wand can do everything radiologists can do, would we embrace it or invent reasons to occupy 40+ hours a week of time anyway? If a magic wand, might be on the horizon, shouldn't we all be fighting to find it and even finding ways to tweak our behaviors to maximize the amount of free time that could be…

It is precisely the attraction of the vision that makes people fight so hard to preserve these jobs.

Because we know how well the jobs address a need, and we also know how many times throughout history we have been promised magic wands that never quite showed up.

And guess who is best equipped to measure the actual level of “magic”? Experts like radiologists. We need them the most along the way, not the least.

If a magic wand actually shows up, it will be obvious to everyone and we’ll all adopt it voluntarily. Just like thousands of innovations in history.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#173

Post by [deleted] »

phkahler wrote: post #165
kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

I realized long ago that full unattended self driving requires AGI. I think Elon finally figured that out. So now LLMs are going to evolve into AGI any moment. Um no. Tesla (and others) have effectively been working on AGI for 10 years with no luck

[deleted]

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#174

Post by nick__m »

duchef wrote: post #161
nick__m wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Radiologists, here, mostly sit at home, read scan and dictate reports. They rarely talk to other doctors and talking to a patient is beyond them. They are some of the specialists with the best salary. With interventional radiologists and radio-oncologists it's different but were talking about radiologists here...

I'm a radiologist and spend 50% of my time either talking to patients or other clinicians.

You practice in Québec ? If so I am quite surprised, because my wife had a lot of scans and we never met a radiologists who wasn't a radio-oncologist. And her oncologist never talked with the radiologists either. The communication between them was always through written demands and reports. And the situation is similar between her neurologist and the radiologists.

By the way, even if I sound dismissive I have great respect for the skills required by your profession. Reading an IRM is really hard when you have the radiologist report in hand and to my untrained eyes it's impossible without it!

And since you talk to patients frequently, I have an even greater respect of you as a radiologist.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#175

Post by sarchertech »

nick__m wrote: post #76
jonas21 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People love to bring this up, and it was a silly thing to say -- particularly since he didn't seem to understand that radiologists only spend a small part of their time reading scans. But he said it in the context of a Q&A session that happened to be recorded. Unless you're a skilled politician who can give answers without actually saying anything, you're going to say silly things once in a while in unscripted settin…

Radiologists, here, mostly sit at home, read scan and dictate reports. They rarely talk to other doctors and talking to a patient is beyond them. They are some of the specialists with the best salary. With interventional radiologists and radio-oncologists it's different but were talking about radiologists here...

My wife’s an ER doctor and she talks to radiologists all the time.

I also recently had surgery and the surgeon consulted with the radiologist that read my MRI before operating.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#176

Post by tictacttoe »

kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

Meanwhile, it’s my feeling that technology is moving insanely fast but people are just impatient. You move the bar and the expectations move with it. I think part of the problem is that the market rewards execs who set expectations beyond reality. If the market was better at rewarding outcomes not promises, you’d see more reasonable product pitches.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#177

Post by sarchertech »

lnenad wrote: post #7
lomase wrote: post #5

In 2016, Geoffrey Hinton – computer scientist and Turing Award winner – declared that ‘people should stop training radiologists now’. If we had followed every AI evengelist sugestion the world would have collapsed.

Let's assume the last person that entered their radiologist training started then and the training lasts 5 years. At the end of their training the year is 2021 and they are around 31. So that means they will practice medicine for cca 30 years which would put the calendar at around 2051. I'd wager in 25 years we'd get there so I think his opinion still has a large percentage of being correct.

Let’s say we do manage to develop a model that can replace radiologists in 20 years. But we stop training them today. What happens 15 years from now when we don’t have nearly enough radiologists.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#178

Post by treespace8 »

dingnuts wrote: post #158
lomase wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo is a 21 year old company that only operates on a small part of the US after $10 billions of funding.

it's also widely believed that the cars are remotely operated, not autonomous. they are likely semi autonomous, which is still cool, but I wish they'd be honest about it

After learning that the Amazon Go store was power by hundreds of people watching video because the AI could not handle it was a real eye opener for me.

Is this why Waymo is slow to expand, not enough remote drivers?

Maybe that is where we need to be focused, better remote driving?

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#179

Post by CamperBob2 »

1718627440 wrote: post #154
CamperBob2 wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdotes like this are informative as far as they go, but they don't say anything at all about the technique itself. Like your story about the fonts used for labeling, essentially all of the drawbacks cited by the article come down to inadequate or inappropriate training methods and data. Fix that, which will not be hard from a purely-technical standpoint, and you will indeed be able to replace radiologists. Sorry,…

When it weren't for the font it might be anomalies in the image taking or even in the encoder software. You can never really be sure, what exactly the ML is detecting.

You can give it the same tests the human radiologists take in school.

They do take tests, don't they?

They don't all score 100% every time, do they?

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#180

Post by squigz »

kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

Fundamental change does indeed happen very slowly. But it does happen.
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