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Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

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Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#151

Post by 1718627440 »

daxfohl wrote: post #138
quadragenarian wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Radiologists are often the ones who are the "brains" of medical diagnosis. The primary care or ER physician gets the patient scanned, and the radiologist scrolls through hundreds if not thousands of images, building a mental model of the insides of the patient's body and then based on the tens of thousands of cases they've reviewed in the past, as well as deep and intimate human anatomical knowledge, attempts to synt…

Makes sense. Knowing nothing about it, I was picturing a tech sitting at home looking at pictures saying "yup, there's a spot", "nope, no spot here".

For this job a decade of studies would be a bit wasteful though.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#152

Post by foota »

basisword wrote: post #96
christianqchung wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at Waymo, not Robotaxi. Waymo is essentially the self driving vision I had as a kid, and ridership is growing exponentially as they expand. It's also very safe if you believe their statistics[0]. I think there's a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term that seems to apply here, though the radiologist narrative was definitely wrong. [0] https://waymo.com/saf…

It's limited to a few specific markets though. My bet is they aren't going to be able to roll it out widely easily. Probably need to do years of tests in each location to figure out the nuances of the places.

I saw this timeline a while ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/s/mSm0E3yYTY that shows their timeline in each city. Shows Atlanta at just over a year. I think once they've handled similar cities it gets easier and easier to add new ones.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#153

Post by simianwords »

samweb3 wrote: post #87

It's interesting to see people fighting so hard to preserve these jobs. Do people want to work that badly? If a magic wand can do everything radiologists can do, would we embrace it or invent reasons to occupy 40+ hours a week of time anyway? If a magic wand, might be on the horizon, shouldn't we all be fighting to find it and even finding ways to tweak our behaviors to maximize the amount of free time that could be…

People like the promised stability that comes with certain jobs. Some jobs are sold as "study this, get the GPA, apply to this university and do these things and you will get a stable job at the end". AI plans to disrupt this path.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#154

Post by 1718627440 »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #111
pjdesno wrote: post #103

The best story I heard about machine learning and radiology was when folks were racing to try to detect COVID in lung X-rays. As I recall, one group had fairly good success, but eventually someone figured out that their data set had images from a low-COVID hospital and a high-COVID hospital, and the lettering on the images used different fonts. The ML model was detecting the font, not the COVID. [a bit of googling la…

Anecdotes like this are informative as far as they go, but they don't say anything at all about the technique itself. Like your story about the fonts used for labeling, essentially all of the drawbacks cited by the article come down to inadequate or inappropriate training methods and data. Fix that, which will not be hard from a purely-technical standpoint, and you will indeed be able to replace radiologists. Sorry,…

When it weren't for the font it might be anomalies in the image taking or even in the encoder software. You can never really be sure, what exactly the ML is detecting.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#155

Post by pfdietz »

christianqchung wrote: post #70
kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

Look at Waymo, not Robotaxi. Waymo is essentially the self driving vision I had as a kid, and ridership is growing exponentially as they expand. It's also very safe if you believe their statistics[0]. I think there's a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term that seems to apply here, though the radiologist narrative was definitely wrong. [0] https://waymo.com/saf…

> a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term

This is exactly what came to my mind also.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#156

Post by sarchertech »

dyauspitr wrote: post #116
kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

Waymo has worked out. I’ve taken one so many times now I don’t even think about it. If Waymo can pull this off in NYC I believe it will absolutely be capable of long distance trucking not that far in the future.

Trucks are orders of magnitude more dangerous. I wouldn’t be surprised if Waymo is decades away from being able to operate a long haul truck on the open interstate.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#158

Post by dingnuts »

lomase wrote: post #75
innanet-worker wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well part of the reason why you may have felt mislead by that video is because it was staged so i wouldn't feel that bad. https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-video-promoting-sel... for me i have been riding in waymos the last year and have been very pleased with the results. i think we WANT this technology to move faster but the some of the challenges at the edges take a lot of time and resources to solve, but n…

Waymo is a 21 year old company that only operates on a small part of the US after $10 billions of funding.

it's also widely believed that the cars are remotely operated, not autonomous.

they are likely semi autonomous, which is still cool, but I wish they'd be honest about it

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#159

Post by timeon »

lnenad wrote: post #7
lomase wrote: post #5

In 2016, Geoffrey Hinton – computer scientist and Turing Award winner – declared that ‘people should stop training radiologists now’. If we had followed every AI evengelist sugestion the world would have collapsed.

Let's assume the last person that entered their radiologist training started then and the training lasts 5 years. At the end of their training the year is 2021 and they are around 31. So that means they will practice medicine for cca 30 years which would put the calendar at around 2051. I'd wager in 25 years we'd get there so I think his opinion still has a large percentage of being correct.

> I'd wager

Maybe don't?

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#160

Post by sarchertech »

roncesvalles wrote: post #48
djoldman wrote: post #10

> Three things explain this. First,... Second, attempts to give models more tasks have run into legal hurdles: regulators and medical insurers so far are reluctant to approve or cover fully autonomous radiology models. Third, even when they do diagnose accurately, models replace only a small share of a radiologist’s job. Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activi…

I only came to this thread to say that this is completely untrue: >Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activities, like talking to patients and fellow clinicians. The vast majority of radiologists do nothing other than: come in (or increasingly, stay at home), sit down at a computer, consume a series of medical images while dictating their findings, and then go h…

My wife is an ER doctor. I asked her and she said she talks to the radiologists all the time.

I also recently had surgery and the surgeon talked to the radiologist to discuss my MRI before operating.

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