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Hardware is dead

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Re: Hardware is dead

#81

Post by archangel_one »

spiralpolitik wrote: post #66
cs702 wrote: post #59

The first question that popped in my mind as I read this was: how will this affect Apple over time? If tablets with decent specs are available in China at relatively low volumes for $35 each, it's a matter of time before we start seeing free and nearly-free tablets in developed countries like the US. (Not just Amazon; companies like Verizon and Comcast could throw in a free 7" Android tablet just for signing up with…

If the market follows the iPod model then consumers on a whole will prefer the Apple models over the "cheap" alternatives. This will continue until the market is superseded by another market. If the market follows the PC model then Apple's share will collapse to a modest percentage, but will still control the profit share. In either case Apple wins.

I'd argue that following the iPod model rather relies on the competition's devices remaining fairly horrible by comparison - none of them ever had such nice hardware, and I never tried one with adequate software to handle several thousand songs on the device. This seems unlikely to repeat itself to me; IMO* the Nexus 7 is an extremely nice little tablet which proves this kind of thing can work, and other manufacturers can take advantage of Android to provide good software, which often let down the iPod competitors.

There is a third option of course; that the market follows neither model that have gone before, and Apple does not win this time. We won't know for sure until after, though.

* Disclosure: I work at Google, so my opinion is not without potential bias.

Re: Hardware is dead

#82

Post by moepstar »

drivebyacct2 wrote: post #61
patdennis wrote: post #23

Here's a link for anyone who feels like exploring the wonderful world of cheap generic Chinese tablets: http://www.dealextreme.com/c/tablets-1409 Or cheap generic Chinese anything, for that matter.

Someone ought to try the Allwinner tablets before trashing them. There's nothing wrong with them. At all. That SoC is also powering an enormous number of jumpdrive-sized Android sticks that turn your TV into a big XBMC-capable screen. It's mesmerizing to take one of these sticks, plug it into a TV and then Airplay/uPnP-play content on it from my mother's phone, or my Dad's desktop/server PC, or my phone/tablet/laptop…

>> That SoC is also powering an enormous number of jumpdrive-sized Android sticks that turn your TV into a big XBMC-capable screen.

Do you have any pointers to these? I'm feeling pretty intrigued now :P

Re: Hardware is dead

#83

Post by pyre »

noonespecial wrote: post #68
pyre wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious how much time / hardware hacking was necessary to implement your own thermostat or garage door controller. The garage door controller seems like the simpler of the two to reverse engineer, but a thermostat has a number of inputs to reverse engineer unless there is a documented/standard api of sorts. Also, where are you sourcing cheap touch screens 'from the pile?'

Tablets : http://www.dealextreme.com/c/tablets-1409 Thermostats. Most houses have "3 wire" or "5 wire" layouts with standard colors. http://home.howstuffworks.com/home-thermostat3.htm . Its pretty easy to call for heat or cool. Get a temperature sensor for your beaglebone from sparkfun: https://www.sparkfun.com/search/results?term=temperature+sen... I replied further down on how the garage door worked out.

Ah. I mis-understood you on the touch screen part. You made a web interface that you access via cheap tablets. I was thinking that you were replacing physical switches with wall-mounted mini touchscreens.

Re: Hardware is dead

#84

Post by prostoalex »

dholowiski wrote: post #62

A $45 knock off tablet, bought in China miles from the manufacturer doesn't equate to a $45 price tag in the USA. Put a brand name on it (and some quality control), put in the 8 or 16gb the market requires (this tablet was 4gb) and shipping and import fees, and you're easily up to the $200 we're paying today. This is a non-story.

Maybe not $200 http://dx.com/p/7-0-resistive-touch-screen-android-2-2-table... but agree on non-story.

Re: Hardware is dead

#85

Post by noonespecial »

pyre wrote: post #83
noonespecial wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tablets : http://www.dealextreme.com/c/tablets-1409 Thermostats. Most houses have "3 wire" or "5 wire" layouts with standard colors. http://home.howstuffworks.com/home-thermostat3.htm . Its pretty easy to call for heat or cool. Get a temperature sensor for your beaglebone from sparkfun: https://www.sparkfun.com/search/results?term=temperature+sen... I replied further down on how the garage door worked out.

Ah. I mis-understood you on the touch screen part. You made a web interface that you access via cheap tablets. I was thinking that you were replacing physical switches with wall-mounted mini touchscreens.

Yes. That's really where the magic comes from. We've had model controller and view smashed together poorly in single purpose devices for so long, it takes a bit of a mental reorientation to understand that a light switch even has a M, a V, and a C.

Once you do though, you get the awesomeness of programming together your lights, security system, and garage door opener into one view with a software "controller" that can open the door, report its state and turn on the lights with a button press. Then you can put that button on any wall, phone or whatever. If you want to create the functionality of merely replacing a switch with a little touch screen, you can, but that's just one instantiation of the many that become possible.

Re: Hardware is dead

#86

Post by drivebyacct2 »

moepstar wrote: post #82
drivebyacct2 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone ought to try the Allwinner tablets before trashing them. There's nothing wrong with them. At all. That SoC is also powering an enormous number of jumpdrive-sized Android sticks that turn your TV into a big XBMC-capable screen. It's mesmerizing to take one of these sticks, plug it into a TV and then Airplay/uPnP-play content on it from my mother's phone, or my Dad's desktop/server PC, or my phone/tablet/laptop…

>> That SoC is also powering an enormous number of jumpdrive-sized Android sticks that turn your TV into a big XBMC-capable screen. Do you have any pointers to these? I'm feeling pretty intrigued now :P

This guy has a short* list: http://www.j1nx.nl/list-allwinner-a1x-devices

You want set-top boxes category. Also, I'm waiting for this (1) because it will do hardware accelerated decode in Linux as well as Android.

(1) it's not allwinner, but: http://www.ovalelephant.com/p-2079-new-android-tv-box-amlogi...

Re: Hardware is dead

#87

Post by rsync »

noonespecial wrote: post #8

I've already started sticking them to the walls of my house to control lights, the thermostat, the garage door etc. This didn't make sense at $400/device but as soon as they hit $100 or so the game was afoot. Now they're so cheap, its literally cheaper to grab one from "the pile" and whip up a nice html5 interface for the task than to buy a dedicated Insteon controller or Nest thermostat. Hell, it was cheaper to auto…

Of course, the next step is that the massive proliferation of panel displays all over everything will make them tacky and gauche. Look for first class seats and high end luxury cars and nice hotel rooms to begin deleting screens, since their absence will now be luxurious...

Re: Hardware is dead

#88

Post by ctdonath »

meritt wrote: post #37
patdennis wrote: post #23

Here's a link for anyone who feels like exploring the wonderful world of cheap generic Chinese tablets: http://www.dealextreme.com/c/tablets-1409 Or cheap generic Chinese anything, for that matter.

Your implied negative standpoint, with the products are "cheap" and "generic" and "Chinese", is rather naive and amusing. The entire point of this article is the fact that these products are indistinguishable from the same ones with a HTC, Samsung, HP or Apple logo emblazoned on the device. Hardware will truly be dead when people realize just how much they're paying for the brand name and nothing more.

As noted by another post above, take one of these products, bump the specs to something tolerable (say, 16GB instead of 4GB etc.), do some real quality assurance tests/screening, ship it halfway around the world, put a reputable name on it (so customers can trust they're getting something worth getting), add a sensible markup, set up a tech support hotline, and that $45 slate is now $200 - right about where decent tablets are now.

"brand name and nothing more" isn't nothing. It's why people pay Apple $649 for an iPhone 5 consisting of $167.50 in parts - there's more to a product than just parts, there's assuring you'll end up with more than just $167.50 in parts.

Re: Hardware is dead

#89

Post by seltzered_ »

buss wrote: post #33

The generic cheapness that may portend the death of hardware is the same force that is causing a renaissance of hardware hacking. Most major cities have hackerspaces or techshops ( http://www.techshop.ws/ ) where you can 3D print and use CNC mills. It's not uncommon to take apart cheap hardware and hack something into it (failure is much easier to stomach on a sub-$100 device). Arduino has been the main driver in thi…

good point. I'm pretty happy that hardware hacking is potentially becoming mainstream again, hopefully it makes complex hardware design seem less and less like an ivory tower affair like it has for the past 20-30 years.

I've worked in the industry at a chip startup, and it's one where people hold on to stacks of internal design books across companies because the information is very niche and protected.

As far as the commoditization of consumer hardware, everyone in the industry knows about it, and they're responding by investing more by offshoring, or focusing on higher-end industrial markets. Hardware/chip startups are increasingly rare (or are very underfunded) unless they offer a significant game-changer due to the capital costs involved.

Re: Hardware is dead

#90

Post by andywhite37 »

jgrahamc wrote: post #22

"At these levels there is almost no profit margin left in the hardware business. A $45 tablet is cheap enough to be an impulse purchase at the check-out line in Best Buy. A $45 price puts tablets within reach of a whole host of other activities not traditionally associated with computers. Tablets could be used by waiters in restaurants." I've been to plenty of restaurants where waiters having been using handheld, wir…

It could also mean that "mom and pop" companies can no longer get into the hardware game at all. If there is no margin for hardware sales, only companies that can afford to setup the manufacturing processes and operate them at little, no, or negative profit will be able to stay in the game. This means only companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc. who can afford to support mass hardware production with software sales, will be able to compete in the hardware market.
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