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Hardware is dead

venturebeat.com

71–80 of 155 posts

Re: Hardware is dead

#71
post #69

Hardware is dead; long live hardware. The free-fall in PC prices in the 90s "killed" the PC, except that every major PC manufacturer still sells high-end models, and retailers still make money on them. The free-fall in automotive prices in the 20s "killed" the automobile, except that people kept buying faster, sleeker, newer models anyway. Like so many other electronics and everyday devices, the commoditization of ta…

So not to be that dude, but ... "The King is dead, long live the King." refers to the accession of a new monarch. It implies in the language an immediate, uninterrupted rule of the line. It should not be used when something has died, and it's just dead and there is no implied line of succession. A terrible but relevant example would be "the iPhone is dead, long live the iPhone.", implying that the 4s is dead and 5 no…

Whoops; thank you. I didn't know that.

Re: Hardware is dead

#73

I've already started sticking them to the walls of my house to control lights, the thermostat, the garage door etc. This didn't make sense at $400/device but as soon as they hit $100 or so the game was afoot. Now they're so cheap, its literally cheaper to grab one from "the pile" and whip up a nice html5 interface for the task than to buy a dedicated Insteon controller or Nest thermostat. Hell, it was cheaper to auto…

Which is to say: what's truly dead is the single-purpose electronic device.

Modulo reliability and/or battery life / power consumption. Power draw on single-purpose devices can be very, very, very low. It's going to be a while before you can power a tablet with a postage-stamp sized PV cell or thermocouple. But 1-800-YOU-WILL.

Re: Hardware is dead

#74
post #37

Here's a link for anyone who feels like exploring the wonderful world of cheap generic Chinese tablets: http://www.dealextreme.com/c/tablets-1409 Or cheap generic Chinese anything, for that matter.

Your implied negative standpoint, with the products are "cheap" and "generic" and "Chinese", is rather naive and amusing. The entire point of this article is the fact that these products are indistinguishable from the same ones with a HTC, Samsung, HP or Apple logo emblazoned on the device. Hardware will truly be dead when people realize just how much they're paying for the brand name and nothing more.

I wasn't implying that they're bad.

They're sub $200, made in China, and don't have brand names.

Re: Hardware is dead

#76
"Amazon is also clearly way ahead on this model. At the Kindle launch event last week, Jeff Bezos highlighted that Amazon does not make money on the Kindle, it makes money on the content it sells on top of the Kindle."

And Nintendo has been aware of this since the 80s. Consoles have been closed platforms with razor thin to loss leader margins on hardware for over thirty years now. It's only that the development model itself has shifted with tablets and smartphones, they're a bit more open than they used to be.

Re: Hardware is dead

#77

"At these levels there is almost no profit margin left in the hardware business. A $45 tablet is cheap enough to be an impulse purchase at the check-out line in Best Buy. A $45 price puts tablets within reach of a whole host of other activities not traditionally associated with computers. Tablets could be used by waiters in restaurants." I've been to plenty of restaurants where waiters having been using handheld, wir…

Also, it's interesting that he brags about his research in China without mentioning what this means in developing economies. China still has huge segments of the population that do not own tablets, not to mention India.

Meanwhile in the developed world, tablets could become as ubiquitous as signs.

Re: Hardware is dead

#78
Another win is when these products become components themselves. Think robotics and other DIY projects that can have a huge amount of functionality out of the box thanks to an established platform tied to an excellent selection of sensors and communication options.

Re: Hardware is dead

#79

I've already started sticking them to the walls of my house to control lights, the thermostat, the garage door etc. This didn't make sense at $400/device but as soon as they hit $100 or so the game was afoot. Now they're so cheap, its literally cheaper to grab one from "the pile" and whip up a nice html5 interface for the task than to buy a dedicated Insteon controller or Nest thermostat. Hell, it was cheaper to auto…

Which is to say: what's truly dead is the single-purpose electronic device. Modulo reliability and/or battery life / power consumption. Power draw on single-purpose devices can be very, very, very low. It's going to be a while before you can power a tablet with a postage-stamp sized PV cell or thermocouple. But 1-800-YOU-WILL.

That's why I'm excited to see what I can do with a Kindle Paperwhite.

Re: Hardware is dead

#80

Hardware is dead; long live hardware. The free-fall in PC prices in the 90s "killed" the PC, except that every major PC manufacturer still sells high-end models, and retailers still make money on them. The free-fall in automotive prices in the 20s "killed" the automobile, except that people kept buying faster, sleeker, newer models anyway. Like so many other electronics and everyday devices, the commoditization of ta…

Came here to say exactly that. Markets are zombies and dollars are brains. But the title is less thrilling than "Ok everyone knows how to make a tablet now, that won't be a high margin business." In this case margin being the proxy for expertise in putting together a tablet.

But there actually is a story here which VentureBeat came so close too and missed, the cost of compute.

Even in the 80's when I went to work for Intel people 'in the know' thought it was insane that Intel could capture 33% of the value of a PC with just the CPU + chipset. They worked really hard to make that the case, using every gimmick at their disposal, from patents to copyrights to support contracts to outright strong-arm tactics. Even today that survives in the $300 you pay for the CPU on the motherboard. Mostly it was about the software base though, you really couldn't do anyhing about it unless you were willing to bite off on the problem of the software and tools. Apple did that, but nobody else did.

ARM is different, the ARM folks take their tax, but you can buy out their tax if you know you are going to sell enough chips, and the cost to make chips has gone down. Even though the cost to build chip factories has gone up (remarkably so). I'm not nearly as engaged with this problem as I once was but around the turn of the century the 'sunk' costs of doing a chip was on the order of 5 - 7 million dollars. A wafer start (with anywhere from 1 to 12 300mm wafers) is like $48K [1]. Less on the older processes, so may $1 base cost per tested good packaged die. So you if you price to cost + margin there was a huge amount of room below the Intel x86 artificial cost 'floor'. ARM software has gotten better and with Linux and then Android creating volume, additional players entered the market. And some, like All Winning have very modest margin targets on their CPUs, others like BroadCom/TI/QualComm have been playing in the smartphone market where these CPUs don't carry as much margin as general purpose compute devices do. You need look no further than the Raspberry Pi to see what that means in terms of consumer cost.

Anyone can become an ARM cpu vendor, its damn difficult to become an x86 compatible processor vendor. And that is the story we're seeing play out here. From the sidelines I'm watching to see what Intel does next, they are already scrambling (see the Cedar Trail stuff) and they have a lot of smart folks who can do great stuff with manufacturing and architecture. For the first time since the Motorola 68000, they have legitimate competition.

[1] http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20110912192619_TS...

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