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A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

arxiv.org

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Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#111

Post by pixl97 »

stouset wrote: post #105
K0balt wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are token rewards for successes and punishments, sometimes extreme, for low productivity. If a slave is seen as having no worth to the endeavour and cannot be trafficked, they will sometimes be killed as a warning to the others that productivity is expected. It’s a horrific and brutal scenario that pits victims against victims. In many ways, the targets have less to lose than the victims targeting them.

Jesus. It had never occurred to me that the front-line people perpetrating these scams could be enslaved themselves.

Enslaved, having family members held hostage, or some other threat of violence. Once you start stealing amounts of money that other people will kill you for then it's likely for that group to use that level of violence against its own members to ensure compliance.

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#112

Post by FabHK »

shellfishgene wrote: post #78
jacknews wrote: post #66

Are there not some more direct interventions? I know of a building housing one of these. Obviously they pay the local police and have cover so just filing a complaint or whatever is not an option.

The article states than an estimated 75 billion dollars have been lost since 2020, the corruption goes way beyond local cops, and in Myanmar probably involves the government directly. Whole cities are being built for scamming. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/08/m...

That’s probably an underestimate. The Economist estimates “Scam Inc.” to pull half a trillion a year.

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#113

Post by pixl97 »

shkkmo wrote: post #100
K0balt wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get presented with one or two of these a month. It’s easy to be calloused until you remember that these people are also victims, often in worse ways than you could ever be as one of their targets. The best thing is just to ignore completely. If you engage at all, you risk worsening their situation by wasting their time, while if you do engage you might be saving someone else at their expense…. It’s lose/lose to eng…

> If you engage at all, you risk worsening their situation by wasting their time, while if you do engage you might be saving someone else at their expense…. I don't understand what you are arguing for here? That they need to be allowed to scam someone else to avoid worsening their situation? I'd say wasting their time is the best solution. It avoids giving the bosses info on what approaches works with who and helps m…

>That they need to be allowed to scam someone else to avoid worsening their situation?

There are two levels of scammers here. One is the low level scammer that is directly interfacing with you. In these situations they are also victims that are being held by violence. Simply put if bad things happen to these people or not the scam will remain as this level is rather cheap.

The bosses will observe from a higher level based on the successful feedback and direct their efforts there, much like a spammer that calculates the return on millions and millions of sent emails.

To catch the bosses we need nation state/global level enforcement against said people. The problem is they quite often pay their local governments handsomely to protect against them.

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#114

Post by jFmDRz73 »

throwup238 wrote: post #90
K0balt wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was a pretty wild ride, for an arvix paper lol. Easily as good as a provocative work of fiction, It had me questioning my marriage briefly until I rolled over and looked at my toddler, and briefly thought “holy shirt this runs deep!” (And then obviously broke out of the spell of the story lol) Still, it’s a testament to the level of emotional damage that these scams must levy on their actual victims.

The wild part will be when you find out that the toddler is actually the mastermind.

Or simply that you're not the father.

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#115

Post by alistairSH »

Loughla wrote: post #104
foobarian wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is, what can YOU do now to avoid risk to your own estate once you are old and start losing your mental faculties?

Build those things into your estate. My family made a trust that pays bills and what not. So your income goes to the trust and you use it to pay regular bills and groceries and what not. Anything on the "not-approved" list takes a vote of the people controlling the trust (parents and kids). That has helped us avoid some bullshit so far.

Of course, you avoid the pig butchering, but open yourself to abuse from the trustees. Reasonably want a new BMW? Hope your kid is ok with their inheritance shrinking by $60k. Etc.

I'm not claiming a trust is a bad idea, only that you need to take care picking the trustees. And be sure there's an "out" if you and the trustees fall out.

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#116

Post by red-iron-pine »

0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #24
qnleigh wrote: post #6

I got sucked into reading this paper, and it has completely changed my perception of these scams. They are incredibly thorough and realistic. Here are some quotes that drove this home for me. "The bond phase showed that scammers had tremendous patience; this phase lasted anywhere from 3 to 11 months before the scammer moved on to the next stage of the scam." "When I spoke to her on a video call, it was the same perso…

Definitely sympathizes the victims even more. I had been thinking that these were 1-2 month, ham-fisted operations: establish contact and rush to grab the cash from the gullible rube. To string along the target for a year shows dedication completely separate from the pedestrian scams you normally encounter.

> To string along the target for a year shows dedication completely separate from the pedestrian scams you normally encounter.

presumably this is where the name comes from, no?

you spend a year fattening the pig, before you butcher it, hence pig butchering schemes.

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#117

Post by red-iron-pine »

mothballed wrote: post #67
smusamashah wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

3 to 11 months is long enough. I wonder if higher level scaammers spend even longer for even higher rewards, years instead of months for the momey. At that point it should be a much higher purpose/agenda but I guess these timespans must be happening too.

Most motorcycle gangs require a 1 year hang around, plus the introduced person has to be known for at least a year. The conventional wisdom is to wait 2 years to marry someone, and 1 year at the absolute bare minimum if you are old or at the edge of the fertility window or in some extenuating circumstance. This seems somewhat confirmed by the fact it outlives the measure of these long-running scams. Perhaps the conve…

for the average person, the limerence phase -- where your brain produces dopamine instead of oxytocin when around your partner -- lasts around 20-26 months.

aka the honeymoon phase. wait until the dopamine hits stop and then see where you stand with that marriage...

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#118

Post by 0cf8612b2e1e »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #116
0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely sympathizes the victims even more. I had been thinking that these were 1-2 month, ham-fisted operations: establish contact and rush to grab the cash from the gullible rube. To string along the target for a year shows dedication completely separate from the pedestrian scams you normally encounter.

> To string along the target for a year shows dedication completely separate from the pedestrian scams you normally encounter. presumably this is where the name comes from, no? you spend a year fattening the pig, before you butcher it, hence pig butchering schemes.

I never took it so literally. Just thought it was to develop a relationship with a mark and then put the screws to them as soon as possible.

Someone gullible, like a reality show contestant (90 Day Fiancé, Bachelor, etc). A person who can “fall in love” immediately and will do whatever to prove their affection because they believe they have limited alternatives.

A year investment…that is a meaningful (platonic or romantic) time for a relationship, where some sense of obligation/pity to the scammer could develop.

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#119

Post by red-iron-pine »

mschuster91 wrote: post #93
qnleigh wrote: post #6

I got sucked into reading this paper, and it has completely changed my perception of these scams. They are incredibly thorough and realistic. Here are some quotes that drove this home for me. "The bond phase showed that scammers had tremendous patience; this phase lasted anywhere from 3 to 11 months before the scammer moved on to the next stage of the scam." "When I spoke to her on a video call, it was the same perso…

> "It seemed legitimate, there was no reason to think that it could be fake – if she could be a scammer, so could any of my actual friends." Which isn't that far from the truth, eh. Tupperware and Amway might be legit MLMs (there is a product attached, after all), but there are sooo many "side hustles" preying particularly on women that are outright scams - and inevitably the victims of these lose almost all of their…

they're not legit, they're just scams. that real products are involved is irrelevant given the amount of financial and personal damage involved.

Re: A qualitative analysis of pig-butchering scams

#120

Post by lostphilosopher »

foobarian wrote: post #96
PaulHoule wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scientology has gone through phases. Up until the revelation of "Operation Snow White" [1] it was oriented towards recruiting large numbers of footsoldiers into "staff" roles and set prices that made their services accessible to a rather broad "public". Notably L. Ron Hubbard had written that it was immoral to ask for donations without giving something in return so it was all oriented around getting people to pay for…

This seems eerily similar to modern churches. A UU group I have some exposure to is on the brink of going broke and only sustained by 1-2 really wealthy members, and from what they say it's not a rare case.

I don't think this is unique to churches, or even non-profits. Plenty of non-church non-profits rely on a few large donors for much or their funding (in fact plenty are designed that way out the gate - they're founded by one very wealthy individual to work on the projects they care about) and plenty of for profit businesses rely on a few large dollar clients for much of their revenue. Both could potentially be seen extensions of the same economic system that concentrates wealth for both individuals and businesses at top.
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