Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 76 posts

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#11

Post by nine_zeros »

adamnemecek wrote: post #5
nine_zeros wrote: post #4

Illuminating article. And if the yuan bonds information is real, it won't even take 4 years for a lot of global finance to move away from the dollar. It might be tough for the US to accept the higher cost of global resources (and thus become a poorer country) but maybe this gradual decline in dollars status is what the administration hopes is the best case.

Kinda like the UK.

Maybe like the UK but the problem with the US is that the US is a violent country. Lower standard of living is likely to cause violence. UK literally just lost all the colonial wealth but came together to build itself again.

In many ways, the US is a spiral descent culture while the UK lost is all and ascended again but to lower levels.

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#13

Post by arunabha »

lisbbb wrote: post #9
intalentive wrote: post #7

World reserve currency status follows the leader in manufacturing and trade. Maintaining dollar hegemony was never going to be feasible after de-industrialization, but short-sighted decisions like weaponizing SWIFT have accelerated its decline. As the dollar is gradually shunted out of world trade, the US will be less able to export its inflation abroad. The implications won’t be pretty.

You're so defeatist. The US could turn things around and in fact, is. The problem with China is that you can't trust anything there--their bonds are garbage, their equities, same.

The issue is, the current administration seems to be hell bent on speed running the course to a similar destination. The overt attempts to politicize the Fed and key govt institutions has sown the seeds to distrust in US govt data and monetary policy.

Whether we water and fertilize the seeds, or let them dry and wither will decide the level of credibility we get in the future.

Strong institutions are absolutely critical for long term economic success. Enforcement of the rule of law, accurate data and credible monetary policy are the bedrock on which long term economic prosperity is built. Right now, we seem to be taking a jackhammer to that foundation.

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#14

Post by dh2022 »

nextworddev wrote: post #10

Whenever the economist writes a thesis, bet the other way

I stopped reading the Economist a few years ago for this exact reason. It looks like it is still the case. Any article mentioning reserve currency without mentioning Triffin dilemma is not serious. Any article mentioning how US dollar will lose its reserve status without mentioning how the Euro (a large liquid currency with no capital controls and 3 decades of existence ) did not takeover is even less serious. Any reporter claiming RMB is the next world currency never tried to wire a dividend payment out of China.

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#15

Post by nradov »

nine_zeros wrote: post #11
adamnemecek wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda like the UK.

Maybe like the UK but the problem with the US is that the US is a violent country. Lower standard of living is likely to cause violence. UK literally just lost all the colonial wealth but came together to build itself again. In many ways, the US is a spiral descent culture while the UK lost is all and ascended again but to lower levels.

It's nonsense to claim that the USA is a particularly violent country. Since 1776, the per capita rate of violent deaths has been lower than Europe or China.

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#16

Post by atonse »

intalentive wrote: post #7

World reserve currency status follows the leader in manufacturing and trade. Maintaining dollar hegemony was never going to be feasible after de-industrialization, but short-sighted decisions like weaponizing SWIFT have accelerated its decline. As the dollar is gradually shunted out of world trade, the US will be less able to export its inflation abroad. The implications won’t be pretty.

For all of its current very high profile issues of uncertainty in the US, who would actually trust China in any way shape or form as an alternative?

It’s a totalitarian state who has been jailing its wealthiest businesspeople on a whim, causing many to flee, and it’s about to embark on an invasion of its peaceful neighbor.

Which part of any of that screams “that currency will be a stable place to store my money?”

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#17

Post by unearth3d »

nradov wrote: post #15
nine_zeros wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe like the UK but the problem with the US is that the US is a violent country. Lower standard of living is likely to cause violence. UK literally just lost all the colonial wealth but came together to build itself again. In many ways, the US is a spiral descent culture while the UK lost is all and ascended again but to lower levels.

It's nonsense to claim that the USA is a particularly violent country. Since 1776, the per capita rate of violent deaths has been lower than Europe or China.

What happens with those figures if war is removed from the data? US Euro compare 2000 to 2000: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/since-2000-homicide...

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#18

Post by [deleted] »

nradov wrote: post #15
nine_zeros wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe like the UK but the problem with the US is that the US is a violent country. Lower standard of living is likely to cause violence. UK literally just lost all the colonial wealth but came together to build itself again. In many ways, the US is a spiral descent culture while the UK lost is all and ascended again but to lower levels.

It's nonsense to claim that the USA is a particularly violent country. Since 1776, the per capita rate of violent deaths has been lower than Europe or China.

[deleted]

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#19

Post by tnt128 »

intalentive wrote: post #7

World reserve currency status follows the leader in manufacturing and trade. Maintaining dollar hegemony was never going to be feasible after de-industrialization, but short-sighted decisions like weaponizing SWIFT have accelerated its decline. As the dollar is gradually shunted out of world trade, the US will be less able to export its inflation abroad. The implications won’t be pretty.

Would you care to elaborate? Why does it have to follow the leader in manufacturing? shouldnt the world reserve currency also be the most available? If it’s not dollar then what’s the alternative? Yuan isn’t an open currency, impossible for it to replace dollars as the world reserve currency.

Re: China is ditching the dollar, fast: Officials believe the yuan has come of age

#20

Post by seanmcdirmid »

So is China going to finally let the Yuan fully float and get rid of exchange controls? That's when you know the yuan has really come of age...when you don't need special documentation to convert your yuan into dollars or euros.

But something really needs to replace the petro dollar, especially as chinese EV and clean energy tech production reduces or eliminates the need for having a petro dollar at all in most of the world.

Post reply on HN