Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

bls.gov

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 121 posts

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#21

Post by themaninthedark »

shoo wrote: post #7

I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…

This is interesting to see for me because my local housing market(which was once one of the hottest in the US) looks to be on the decline. Houses are on market longer, prices are dropping and sellers are making lots of concessions.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#23

Post by SR2Z »

tlogan wrote: post #10
shoo wrote: post #7

I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…

My naive expectation was: - Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand - Prices of goods would skyrocket because of tariffs But instead, rents went way up. Could this be driven by the push to return to the office?

The "deportation of illegals" cannot reduce rents unless you think that undocumented workers are competing with Americans to pay $3k/mo rents in major cities, instead of living in RVs or cramming into small rooms.

It can increase rents because immigrants build houses and do mental jobs like cleaning.

> Could this be driven by the push to return to the office?

A little. People still want to live in desirable areas for reasons other than work.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#25

Post by altcognito »

cj wrote: post #8

What is the target rate? Was under the impression that 2-3% is the target. Less than that is bad. More than that, also bad.

2% was the target over the long haul (not 3%) -- BUT it is a dual mandate to keep unemployment to a minimum as well. This is considered on the high end of that part of the inflation mandate, and as another comment stated -- if it is persistent, it will be seen as a negative.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#26

Post by SR2Z »

esafak wrote: post #22
jeffbee wrote: post #12

Federal outlays +8%. DOGE was a scam and you all fell for it.

Musk was vocally against the increased federal spending.

And yet he did not meaningfully reduce government spending with DOGE at all. He did pilfer a copy of the SSA database, though.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#27

Post by ACCount37 »

Aurornis wrote: post #11
shoo wrote: post #7

I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…

> The US may import a lot of things... but probably not shelter. Housing requires construction materials, tools, and fixtures. Tariffs increase the cost of all of these, including domestically produced materials due to the second order effects.

It also requires human labor, which isn't impacted by tariffs directly, but may be impacted by other government actions in the US. Such as the ongoing high profile crackdown on illegal immigrant labor.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#28

Post by 9rx »

shoo wrote: post #7

I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…

> an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers

At the same time, though, prices can never rise higher than the consumer is willing to pay. All else equal that ultimately needs to be true, but there are many variables that do not need to remain equal, so it is not a foregone conclusion.

The 2022 food crisis offered pretty good motivation for consumers to pay more — people were truly worried about going hungry there for a while, albeit thankfully that concern didn't last long. I'm not sure tariffs offer the same kind of motivation. I expect there is a strong "Haha. No. I'm not paying more for this arbitrary reason that can be (and probably will be) reversed on a whim." sentiment out there right now.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#29

Post by Aurornis »

Yoric wrote: post #20
Aurornis wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand The number of people deported is negligible. Around 200,000 people. Despite all the news and drama, this number isn’t actually very different than normal. Any large country will have a steady stream of deportations if they enforce immigration laws. It has been like this for a long time. Don’t believe the news and political rhetoric. Look at numb…

As far as I can tell from a distance (I live in Europe), it seems to be more violent than usual, though. Is that correct?

They are trying to make a big show of it with the masks and big public events, yes. It’s all political drama and it’s very sad that it’s like this.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#30

Post by ProjectArcturis »

shoo wrote: post #7

I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…

House prices actually have nothing to do with CPI. "Shelter" is calculated using "Owners Equivalent Rent": https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-an...
Post reply on HN