CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
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Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#2100% odds the Fed cuts but inflation seems entrenched. Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? Tourism is down, AI is up, etc.
Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#3100% odds the Fed cuts but inflation seems entrenched. Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? Tourism is down, AI is up, etc.
>Will the cut really help pull the labor market up?
The capitalists don't care about the labor market as much as they do the stock market. In Trump's crazy Tilt-a-Whirl Policy and Tariff Generator (TM), what business would invest in expansion beyond what is necessary to grease the palms that need greasing? Way too much uncertainty. Time for stock buybacks.
Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#4100% odds the Fed cuts but inflation seems entrenched. Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? Tourism is down, AI is up, etc.
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Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#5100% odds the Fed cuts but inflation seems entrenched. Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? Tourism is down, AI is up, etc.
>Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? The capitalists don't care about the labor market as much as they do the stock market. In Trump's crazy Tilt-a-Whirl Policy and Tariff Generator (TM), what business would invest in expansion beyond what is necessary to grease the palms that need greasing? Way too much uncertainty. Time for stock buybacks.
>what business would invest in expansion beyond what is necessary to grease the palms that need greasing? Way too much uncertainty. Time for stock buybacks.
AI and AI related companies are the opposite of this.
Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#6If you look at the numbers, the key driver is rents (technically listed as "shelter").
Shelter has a large weight in the CPI basket, and its 12-month increase was 3.6% (comparing to 2.9%)
Rents in San Francisco (and LA) are skyrocketing. And that cannot be easily explained.
Not sure what’s causing this. What do you think?
Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#7I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation.
That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver:
> The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase.
The US may import a lot of things... but probably not shelter. Wonder how much of rent inflation is driven by fixed rate mortgages from the zirp era needing to be refinanced at today's higher mortgage rates.
Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#8What is the target rate?
Was under the impression that 2-3% is the target. Less than that is bad. More than that, also bad.
Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#9If you look at the numbers, the key driver is rents (technically listed as "shelter"). Shelter has a large weight in the CPI basket, and its 12-month increase was 3.6% (comparing to 2.9%) Rents in San Francisco (and LA) are skyrocketing. And that cannot be easily explained. Not sure what’s causing this. What do you think?
Lack of construction is likely the problem. High financing costs, expensive construction material (a lot of it is imported, like Canadian wood) and disappearing construction workers is probably all contributing.
Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up
#10I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…
My naive expectation was:
- Rents would go down because deportation of illegals will reduce demand
- Prices of goods would skyrocket because of tariffs
But instead, rents went way up.
Could this be driven by the push to return to the office?