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AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

bloomberg.com

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Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#11

Post by geoduck14 »

redwood wrote: post #4

This technology demos incredibly well and you can just see how everyone gets giddy with excitement around using it. I watch my colleagues and executives proud to show what they could do or make endless jokes about it. It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were. This leads to an over rotation in the perceived value.. the value is significant just as the mo…

>It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were.

Your comparison to smart phones is interesting. Smart phones are definitely transformative. There was a lot of hype, but still transformative.

Do you believe that LLMs and AI is also going to be transformative?

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#12

Post by Mizza »

What's the path to recouping that money?

Even if every major company in the US spends $100,000 a year on subscriptions and every household spends $20/month, it still doesn't seem like enough return on investment when you factor in inference costs and all the other overhead.

New medical discoveries, maybe? I saw OpenAI's announcement about gpt-bio and iPSCs which was pretty amazing, but there's a very long gap between that and commercialization.

I'm just wondering what the plan is.

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#13

Post by weego »

I think what we have right now is an excellent interface for low-friction, non-specialised interaction by humans (work or personal use) with a vast array of highly specialised and highly-complex systems.

What it isn't is the actual final "thing" itself. It's just the thin veneer right now.

I'm not convinced that that revolution was worth whatever trillions we'll end up spending, but fortunately that's not on my shoulders to be worried about.

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#14

Post by zippyman55 »

redwood wrote: post #4

This technology demos incredibly well and you can just see how everyone gets giddy with excitement around using it. I watch my colleagues and executives proud to show what they could do or make endless jokes about it. It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were. This leads to an over rotation in the perceived value.. the value is significant just as the mo…

There are no error bars, no confidence intervals. Just a one trick pony that pastes tokens together to give you something that may look good to many people. Sure there are many good use cases, but there are still enough non-patchable and indeterminable in size holes in the watering pail to limit its effectiveness.

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#15

Post by shoo »

How big is $344B?

Apparently the total market capitalisation of the US stock market is $62.8 trillion. Shiller's CAPE ratio for the S & P index is currently about 38 -- CAPE is defined as current price / (earnings, averaged over the trailing 10 years)

That suggests that over the last 10 years, the average earnings of the US stock market is about $1.7 trillion annually.

So $344B of spending is about 1/5 of the average earnings of the total US stock market.

Still hard to interpret that, but 1/5 is an easier number to think about.

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#16

Post by thiago_fm »

They MUST. It doesn't matter if it looks fragile or how much money it is.

LLMs risk most of those companies business, they can't afford to not be ahead. If they aren't ahead, there's a risk that the entire US's economy would be in a terrible shape.

American Big Tech companies that make plenty of INTERNATIONAL revenue from Ads (Meta, Google), can quickly become a shell of its former self.

How? Countries and economic blocks could quickly substitute their American products counterparts if they have nothing to offer and could roll out their own.

The US's economy has become very dependant on FAANG cashflow, it's what gets other parts of the economy moving.

No wonder they had a dinner with Trump. If this fades away, US will look very weak and with a terrible economic outlook.

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#17

Post by brookst »

zippyman55 wrote: post #14
redwood wrote: post #4

This technology demos incredibly well and you can just see how everyone gets giddy with excitement around using it. I watch my colleagues and executives proud to show what they could do or make endless jokes about it. It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were. This leads to an over rotation in the perceived value.. the value is significant just as the mo…

There are no error bars, no confidence intervals. Just a one trick pony that pastes tokens together to give you something that may look good to many people. Sure there are many good use cases, but there are still enough non-patchable and indeterminable in size holes in the watering pail to limit its effectiveness.

Are you saying the Internet is a fad?

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#18

Post by brookst »

wffurr wrote: post #7
redwood wrote: post #4

This technology demos incredibly well and you can just see how everyone gets giddy with excitement around using it. I watch my colleagues and executives proud to show what they could do or make endless jokes about it. It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were. This leads to an over rotation in the perceived value.. the value is significant just as the mo…

>> in anonymous forums there's a lot more people pointing out that they think this is hype whereas when we wear our professional hats many of us join in When your boss is hyping it up and demanding all hands on deck full steam ahead on the Good Ship AI, lots of people join in out of fear, particularly in the currently awful job market which is partly being ruined by AI itself. Some of us just stay quiet, keep our hea…

This is true, but it is also true that traditionally, people whose jobs are most likely to be affected by technological change are not the most dispassionate, objective judges of the technology.

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#19

Post by HWR_14 »

Mizza wrote: post #12

What's the path to recouping that money? Even if every major company in the US spends $100,000 a year on subscriptions and every household spends $20/month, it still doesn't seem like enough return on investment when you factor in inference costs and all the other overhead. New medical discoveries, maybe? I saw OpenAI's announcement about gpt-bio and iPSCs which was pretty amazing, but there's a very long gap between…

If LLMs could double the efficiency of white collar workers, major companies would be asked for far more than $100,000 a year. If could cut their expensive workforce in half and then paid even 25% of their savings it could easily generate enough revenue to make that valuation look cheap.

Re: AI's $344B 'language model' bet looks fragile

#20

Post by brookst »

geoduck14 wrote: post #11
redwood wrote: post #4

This technology demos incredibly well and you can just see how everyone gets giddy with excitement around using it. I watch my colleagues and executives proud to show what they could do or make endless jokes about it. It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were. This leads to an over rotation in the perceived value.. the value is significant just as the mo…

>It reminds me of when people first got their phones and couldn't stop showing everyone how cool they were. Your comparison to smart phones is interesting. Smart phones are definitely transformative. There was a lot of hype, but still transformative. Do you believe that LLMs and AI is also going to be transformative?

People keep rediscovering the trough of disillusionment and mistaking it for a dead end.
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