I see simonh as a respected and long time member of HN and hope that my reply can be constructive and beneficial to that community.
Anyway, my first home computer was a Sinclair zx80 that booted into a minimal shell and needed you to read the manual before anything worked.
So to use a pc I was forced to program. And RTFM.
But that was ok because there was a whole popular culture surrounding learning to use these new devices - I learnt basic and z80 assembler from magazines I bought in my small town newsagents, and watched prime time tv shows on using the BBC micro (way too expensive for us).
In short the devices were unlocked, the culture was encouraging and the prevailing expection was the devices were to be used for programming and put no blocks in the way (other than it was a z80 with plastic keyboard)
I cannot say for sure I would have found my way here otherwise, but it seems unlikely. So based on my one personal data point, I can say that a future where it is harder to program your devices to do what you want than it was for a kid in the 80's, is then likely to be a future that produces less programmers than my past.
if that is FUD then I must accept that. I am trying to start a after hours coding club at my local school, my nephew gets put onto Mac's term everytime I go round. But a country where most of our children are discouraged from learning to program will be a future that our country is at a competitive dis-advantage. That does sound like FUD I admit. But it also sounds like logically inevitable FUD.
Edit for clarity.