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U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

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Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#161

Post by lubujackson »

VoidWarranty wrote: post #110
cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

So uh, I'm the first person in my family to break the cycle of poverty. I have nobody I trust to follow advise with money. I do all the 'standard' boring investment strategies (401, index funds, roth, etc). I don't bother with crypto (scams). What does one do if stagflation is coming? Float more cash? Buy real estate?

U.S. dollar loses value, property depreciates (no one can afford payments) and equities have their P/E ratios slammed (and we are at all-time historic highs...)

So the solution historically has been stable goods. Gold is the historic standard, but probably Bitcoin now as well. Possibly foreign stocks/currencies. But since everything is so interlinked now with pensions and 401ks that the financial world is far different place than the 70s. If you really want a safe bet, it's that there will be a fair bit of volatility and every asset class will have more risk with spikes up and down. All of this depends heavily on how the U.S. responds along the way.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#162

Post by blackbear_ »

nodesocket wrote: post #94
putzdown wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to see the evidence for or against this assertion. If BLS is grossly inaccurate, that'd be a good thing to know. If it's accurate, also good to know. Evidence?

We can start with this reading. Average monthly job growth dropped from 147,000 initially to just over 70,000 a reduction of approximately 52% from their data. This at precisely when the Fed needed to start cuts when the administration has been aggressively hammering them. Hopefully the Fed is not too late this time, and their 6+ month delay cutting won't result in a recession or serious economic impact.

> dropped from 147,000 initially to just over 70,000

That is well within the confidence intervals published along with the numbers and entirely unsurprising to anybody who is really paying attention.

> reduction of approximately 52% from their data

And of 0.04% of the actual number of employed people. Seems to me way too thin of a margin to get so worked up.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#163

Post by penguin202 »

cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

Last administration cooked the books on BLS numbers for nearly 2 years, issuing corrections and all that nobody paid attention to. They also redefined what a recession is during the last administration.

Wasn't a news story then, but is now b/c trump.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#164

Post by thisisit »

VoidWarranty wrote: post #110
cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

So uh, I'm the first person in my family to break the cycle of poverty. I have nobody I trust to follow advise with money. I do all the 'standard' boring investment strategies (401, index funds, roth, etc). I don't bother with crypto (scams). What does one do if stagflation is coming? Float more cash? Buy real estate?

Investment returns have been falling across the board. A good guide on how to invest:

https://www.amazon.com/Investing-Amid-Low-Expected-Returns/d...

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#165

Post by minorj47 »

I am honestly surprised considering everything we have seen regarding the reporting of the jobs report that people are taking this on face value. I think it’s more likely the numbers are being deflated to give the current administration an excuse for the recent downturn in hiring that their policies have caused.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#166

Post by cjfd »

cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

[flagged]

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#168

Post by trod1234 »

cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

I've been saying this same thing for awhile, the problem is a lot of sentiment bots have been downvoting it out of view within 24 hours, taking karma as they go. Yesterday lost 10 points for a single post same subject, basically the same as yours.

There are a number of subjects now where its almost to the point where any discussion is fruitless because anyone talking is getting punished by third-parties, and moderation aint doing a thing about them.

Your right it will be real bad, much worse than before because most of the Volcker recovery was on the back of the global adoption of the petrodollar. The situation is the exact opposite today where you not only have petrodollar pools of money coming back domestically but also runaway government spending.

If you compare our modern economics with that of Argentina over the past 100 years, we seem to be following the same policy pitfalls. These things largely only happen because of excessive money-printing under fiat, certain government policy and regulation can cause it as well.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#169

Post by JumpCrisscross »

rsynnott wrote: post #156
baron816 wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct. We’re not reversing things anytime soon, and the longer things stay like this, the more damage will be done.

At least on the US tariffs thing, congress can put Trump back in his box and revert to normalcy any time it wants to; the threat of stagflation might make it do that. The previous stagflation incident was more driven by outside forces.

> on the US tariffs thing, congress can put Trump back in his box and revert to normalcy any time it wants to

We’ve already lost export market share. China, Russia and India have already begun building a trade bloc. FDI has already been trashed.

We’re already in for a world of hurt. And personally, I’m eager to ensure it lands disproportionately on his voters and donors.

Re: U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier

#170

Post by staticman2 »

VoidWarranty wrote: post #110
cs702 wrote: post #53

If unemployment continues to rise, and the one-time impact on prices of tariffs leads to self-reinforcing high inflation, we'll have stagflation : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation I sure hope not , because stagflation would be extremely unpleasant for everyone. Central banks like the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates, to put stress on businesses and consumers, so businesses find themsel…

So uh, I'm the first person in my family to break the cycle of poverty. I have nobody I trust to follow advise with money. I do all the 'standard' boring investment strategies (401, index funds, roth, etc). I don't bother with crypto (scams). What does one do if stagflation is coming? Float more cash? Buy real estate?

The 10 year breakeven inflation rate as of today is 2.38%.

Deciding that stagflation is coming and changing you asset allocation based on a solicitation of opinions from random people is probably a bad idea.

If nothing else you should look for academic papers on ways to estimate expected inflation instead of asking for opinions here.

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