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AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

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Re: AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

#21

Post by benterix »

pj_mukh wrote: post #13
bigbuppo wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bigger question is whether it's going to disappear completely for the next 30 years, or if it's going to limp along, simmering on the back burner, just trying to optimize mattress sales.

Or more likely it’ll look like the e-commerce adoption plots with a giant pop in the late 90s and then a 20 year slog of consistent growth [1] Pretty much exactly what the S-curve looks like. [1]: https://www.marketplacepulse.com/stats/us-e-commerce-growth-...

Possibly. With one caveat: to do ecommerce I just need a VPS and WooCommerce or Prestashop on it. In order to do GenAI, I either need to have an order of magnitude (or more) expensive server, or using an API which depending on usage might get terribly expensive for SOTA models.

Re: AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

#23

Post by singron »

pandorobo wrote: post #8

Does it mean the number of companies newly adopting AI is dropping? That could mean that its just saturated so of course it would drop? Unless I am reading this graph wrong and it's actually the same companies that are now no longer adopting AI?

I believe it's the second case. Otherwise far over 100% of firms "adopted" AI by now, which doesn't make sense unless they keep un-adopting and re-adopting.

The question from BTOS is

> Between MMM DD – MMM DD, did this business use Artificial Intelligence (AI) in producing goods or services? (Examples of AI: machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents, voice recognition, etc.)

Re: AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

#24

Post by singron »

ares623 wrote: post #7

Is this a self reported survey? Why would companies admit they’re not using AI?

The results are aggregated and not sent to investors. There is no incentive to lie, and this survey is voluntary, so if you respond at all, it's out of some civic duty.

Re: AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

#26

Post by Sammi »

"250 or more" employees is at top. "1-4" and "100-249" are next, while all the medium sized companies are lagging at the bottom. This is signal I think. The heavy adopters are either large enterprise or solo/micro teams.

Now my interpretation: Enterprises are mostly riding the hype and not getting that much real benefit - hence the recent steep decline they've seen. Solo devs and micro teams are reaping the most of the actual benefits of generative AI. Anecdotally I've seen this in practice that individuals or tiny teams have the most flexibility with using AI and can play around with it the most in order to get it to do useful stuff. Larger organizations are limited by communication overhead and need to follow protocols and procedures and best practices and whathaveyou. Whatever benefit AI brings is drowned out by this overhead.

My prediction: Solo devs and tiny teams using AI will be able to do more work faster than enterprise. I've yet to see much real world results of this, so I think the effect is kinda small, but I do believe is is tangible. I think we're seeing a silent wave of micro-sass businesses that is made more possible because of generative AI. These aren't large or sexy, so they're not making headlines. Where can I find data on this?

Re: AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

#27

Post by utyop22 »

sensanaty wrote: post #20

Very anecdotally after recently having gone through the interview loop for the last 3 months (and finally landing something last week, yay), there was barely any talk about AI in any of my interviews, both from startups and from larger companies. There was 1 or 2 startups that had some trite things like "AI Native Engineer" for the role, but when I asked my interviewers what that even meant, they basically told me th…

The biggest side cost (that’ll ultimately kill AI investment for awhile once this bubble pops) is the fact that for many people LLM = AI.

It’s going to be difficult to justify AI investment in private financial markets - causing more consolidation and control of future technology to fall into the hands of the large tech firms.

It’s a gamble that Sam Altman and others have taken - hoping and praying it won’t blow up in their face.

Re: AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

#28

Post by yieldcrv »

Meanwhile generative video doesn’t need to be adopted by large companies and the demand still needs 4-5x as many GPUs and compute power then exists today, as nobody is offering 4k video at 60fps yet

That’s one use case alone

So although this may be indicative of how much text inference you’ll need, or what you’ll hear about it on the job, it doesn’t have much to do with the actual AI sector or semiconductor sector yet

Re: AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

#29

Post by utyop22 »

alangibson wrote: post #17
mrheosuper wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally i believe it will stay with us, for a long time. The benefit is real.

The benefit is real, but the profits are not. Companies ability to eventually make money off of this is what will decide if it stays around or not.

Yeah and I don’t think Zuckerberg et all will be willing to risk a steep drop in their wealth for a long period to carry on reinvesting - yea they have control but investors can still reflect their sentiment in the stock price. And the wealth of senior management at these firms is tied up in the price of stock.

This is what happened with the metaverse debacle where the share price fell below 100usd.

Re: AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies

#30

Post by ares623 »

rsynnott wrote: post #25
ares623 wrote: post #7

Is this a self reported survey? Why would companies admit they’re not using AI?

What were you expecting the negative consequences of admitting the dire crime of not using AI to the _census bureau_ to be? Straight to Census Jail?

Worse, a lower stock price.
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