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Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

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Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#91

Post by nerevarthelame »

larve wrote: post #16

In case the author is reading this, I have the receipts on how there's a real step function in how much software I build, especially lately. I am not going to put any number on it because that makes no sense, but I certainly push a lot of code that reasonably seems to work. The reason it doesn't show up online is that I mostly write software for myself and for work, with the primary goal of making things better, not…

How are you sure it's increasing your productivity if it "makes no sense" to even quantify that? What are the receipts you have?

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#92

Post by panarchy »

vkou wrote: post #72
some-guy wrote: post #15

These claims wouldn't matter if the topic weren't so deadly serious. Tech leaders everywhere are buying into the FOMO, convinced their competitors are getting massive gains they're missing out on. This drives them to rebrand as AI-First companies, justify layoffs with newfound productivity narratives, and lowball developer salaries under the assumption that AI has fundamentally changed the value equation. This is my…

I'd like to see those SVPs and PMs, or shit, even a line manager use AI to implement something as simple as a 2-month intern project [1] in a week. --- [1] We generally budget about half an intern's time for finding the coffee machine, learning how to show up to work on time, going on a fun event with the other interns to play minigolf, discovering that unit tests exist, etc, etc.

I'd rather see those SVPs, PMs, and line managers be turned into AI.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#93

Post by heavyset_go »

wrs wrote: post #2

This makes some sense. We have CEOs saying they're not hiring developers because AI makes their existing ones 10X more productive. If that productivity enhancement was real, wouldn't they be trying to hire all the developers? If you're getting 10X the productivity for the same investment, wouldn't you pour cash into that engine like crazy? Perhaps these graphs show that management is indeed so finely tuned that they'…

As the rate of profit drops, value needs to be squeezed out of somewhere and that will come from the hiring/firing and compensation of labor, hence a strong bias towards that outcome.

99% of the draw of AI is cutting labor costs, and hiring goes against that.

That said, I don't believe AI productivity claims, just pointing out a factor that could theoretically contribute to your hypothetical.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#94

Post by SchemaLoad »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #83

All these bearish claims about AI coding would hold weight if models were stuck permanently at the capabilities level they are now with no chance at improvement. This is very likely not the case given improvements over the past year, and even with diminishing returns models will be significantly more capable both independently and as a copilot in a year.

Sure, no one can say what the future will look like. The problem is these products are being marketed today based on what they might do tomorrow. And it's warping perceptions of management who get sold on hype that isn't real yet and possibly not for a very long time.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#95

Post by wrs »

moduspol wrote: post #55
wrs wrote: post #2

This makes some sense. We have CEOs saying they're not hiring developers because AI makes their existing ones 10X more productive. If that productivity enhancement was real, wouldn't they be trying to hire all the developers? If you're getting 10X the productivity for the same investment, wouldn't you pour cash into that engine like crazy? Perhaps these graphs show that management is indeed so finely tuned that they'…

A lot of these C-suite people also expect the remaining ones to be replaced by AI. They subscribe to the hockey-stick "AGI is around the corner" narrative. I don't, but at least it is somewhat logical. If you truly believe that, you wouldn't necessarily want to hire more developers.

Or CEOs.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#96

Post by larve »

nerevarthelame wrote: post #91
larve wrote: post #16

In case the author is reading this, I have the receipts on how there's a real step function in how much software I build, especially lately. I am not going to put any number on it because that makes no sense, but I certainly push a lot of code that reasonably seems to work. The reason it doesn't show up online is that I mostly write software for myself and for work, with the primary goal of making things better, not…

How are you sure it's increasing your productivity if it "makes no sense" to even quantify that? What are the receipts you have?

I have linked my github above. I don't know how that fares in the bigger scope of things, but I went from 0 opensource to hundreds of tools and frameworks and libraries. Putting a number on "productivity" makes no sense to me, I would have no idea what that means.

I generate between 10-100k lines of code per day these days. But is that a measure of productivity? Not really...

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#97

Post by hinkley »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #83

All these bearish claims about AI coding would hold weight if models were stuck permanently at the capabilities level they are now with no chance at improvement. This is very likely not the case given improvements over the past year, and even with diminishing returns models will be significantly more capable both independently and as a copilot in a year.

Hype cycles affect funding. When the Trough of Disillusionment hits anything that's being started will take years to finish due to a more difficult funding terrain.

The arrival of the Trough is predicated by the amount of lies and utter bullshit that have been shoveled out during the earlier parts of the cycle. So while it's unfortunate that the real goods don't get delivered for years and years after they might have been, it's typically and often entirely the fault of the people on the train that this has happened.

There's an awful lot of utter bullshit in the AI hype.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#98

Post by atleastoptimal »

bsder wrote: post #46
rglover wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My manager told me that the time to deliver my latest project was cut to 20% of the original estimate because we are "an AI-first company". Lord, forgive them, they know not what they do.

Do not forgive them. We already have a description for them: "A bunch of mindless jerks who'll be the first against the wall when the revolution comes."

I think this hits at the heart of why you and so many people on HN hate AI.

You see yourselves as the disenfranchised proletariats of tech, crusading righteously against AI companies and myopic, trend-chasing managers, resentful of their apparent success at replacing your hard-earned skill with an API call.

It’s an emotional argument, born of tribalism. I’d find it easier to believe many claims on this site that AI is all a big scam and such if it weren’t so obvious that this underlies your very motivated reasoning. It is a big mirage of angst that causes people on here to clamor with perfunctory praise around every blog post claiming that AI companies are unprofitable, AI is useless, etc.

Think about why you believe the things you believe. Are you motivated by reason, or resentment?

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#99

Post by jryio »

heavyset_go wrote: post #82
jryio wrote: post #18

I completely agree with the thesis here. I also have not seen a massive productivity boost with the use of AI. I think that there will be neurological fatigue occurring whereby if software engineers are not actively practicing problem-solving, discernment, and translation into computer code - those skills will atrophy... Yee, AI is not the 2x or 10x technology of the future ™ is was promised to be. It may the case th…

> I think that there will be neurological fatigue occurring whereby if software engineers are not actively practicing problem-solving, discernment, and translation into computer code - those skills will atrophy... I've found this to be the case with most (if not all) skills, even riding a bike. Sure, you don't forget how to ride it, but your ability to expertly articulate with the bike in a synergistic and tool-like…

Yes and this is the placid version where lazy programmers elect to lighten their cognitive load by farming out to AI.

An insidious version is AGI replacing human cognition.

To replace human thought is to replace a biological ability which progresses on evolutionary timescales - not a Moore's law approximate curve. The issue in your skull will quite literally be as useful as a cow's for solving problems... think about that.

Automating labor in the 20th century disrupts society and we've see its consequences. Replacing cognition entirely: driving, writing, decision making, and communication; yields far worse outcomes than transitioning the population from food production to knowledge work.

If not our bodies and not our minds, then what do we have? (Note: Altman's universal basic income ought to trip every dystopian alarm bell).

Whether adopted passivity or foisted actively - cognition is what makes us human. Let's not let Claude Code be the nexus for something worse.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#100

Post by wrs »

heavyset_go wrote: post #93
wrs wrote: post #2

This makes some sense. We have CEOs saying they're not hiring developers because AI makes their existing ones 10X more productive. If that productivity enhancement was real, wouldn't they be trying to hire all the developers? If you're getting 10X the productivity for the same investment, wouldn't you pour cash into that engine like crazy? Perhaps these graphs show that management is indeed so finely tuned that they'…

As the rate of profit drops, value needs to be squeezed out of somewhere and that will come from the hiring/firing and compensation of labor, hence a strong bias towards that outcome. 99% of the draw of AI is cutting labor costs, and hiring goes against that. That said, I don't believe AI productivity claims, just pointing out a factor that could theoretically contribute to your hypothetical.

Maybe if you have a business where the need for software is a constant, so it’s great to get it for 90% off. (It’s not clear what business that is in 2025, maybe a small plumbing contractor?)

But if your business is making software it’s hard to argue you only need a constant amount of software. I’ve certainly never worked at a software company where the to-do list was constant or shrinking!

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