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Anthropic raises $13B Series F

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#321

Post by nikanj »

xpe wrote: post #222

Remember the YouTube acquisition? Many probably don’t since it was 2006. $1.65B. To many, it seemed bonkers. Narrow point: In general, one person’s impression of what is crazy does not fare well against market-generated information. Broader point: If you think you know more than the market, all other things equal, you’re probably wrong. Lesson: Only searching for reasons why you are right is a fishing expedition. If…

$183B makes sense because 20 years ago something else was valued at $1.65 billion and money has decreased in value 100-fold?

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#322

Post by sbarre »

serf wrote: post #304
bcrosby95 wrote: post #291

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're really bending over backwards to make this company seem non viable. If model training has truly turned out to be profitable at the end of each cycle, then this company is going to make money hand over fist, and investing money to out compete the competition is the right thing to do. Most mega corps started out wildly unprofitable due to investing into the core business... until they aren't. It's almost…

>I think you're really bending over backwards to make this company seem non viable. Having experienced Anthropic as a customer, I have a hard time thinking that their inevitable failure (something i'd bet on) will be model/capability-based, that's how bad they suck at every other customer-facing metric. You think Amazon is frustrating to deal with? Get into a CSR-chat-loop with an uncaring LLM followed up on by an un…

Maybe you don't want to share, but I'm scratching my head trying to think of something I would need to talk to Anthropic's customer service about that would be urgent and un-straightfoward enough to frustrate me to the point of using the term "abuse"..

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#323

Post by serf »

jayd16 wrote: post #225
wmf wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't run Claude on your PC; you need servers. Companies that have that kind of hardware are not going to touch a pirated model. And the next model will be out in a few months anyway.

If it was worth it, you'd see some easy self hostable package, no? And by definition, its profitable to self host or these AI companies are in trouble.

I think this misunderstands the scale of these models.

And honestly I don't think a lot of these companies would turn a profit on pure utility -- the electric and water company doesn't advertise like these groups do; I think that probably means something.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#324

Post by beAbU »

koakuma-chan wrote: post #253
edm0nd wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

its some GPT wrapper app that has 100 downloads. also if your founder has to use dozens of buzzwords when asked to describe what their app does and that still doesn't even explain it, its obviously just bs. "Arcarae’s mission is to help humanity remember and unlock the power each individual holds within themself so they can bring into reality their unique, authentic expression of self without fear or compromise. Our…

> lol What do you mean lol? Isn't that awesome ? Feel free to share if you think that isn't awesome. I personally don't think there is enough information here to tell if that is awesome or satire, but it is interesting how usually things like this are considered awesome, but this particular one is deemed satire.

The post borders on turbo encabulatoe levels of insanity. It makes zero sense.

What does the product do?

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#325

Post by serf »

sidewndr46 wrote: post #219
llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

I'm not an expert at how private investment rounds work, but aren't most "raises" of AI companies just huge commitments of compute capacity? Either pre-existing or build-out.

it's difficult for me to imagine this level of compute existing and sitting there idle somewhere; it just doesn't make sense.

So we can at least assume that whoever is deciding to move the capacity does so at some business risk elsewhere.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#326

Post by simianwords »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #131
yieldcrv wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Locally run video models that are just as good as today’s closed models are going to be the watershed moment The companies doing foundational video models have stakeholders that don’t want to be associated with what people really want to generate But they are pushing the space forward and the uncensored and unrestricted video model is coming

Nobody wants to make a commercial NSFW model that then suffers a jailbreak... for what is the most illegal NSFW content.

Why is this illegal btw? I mean whats stopping an AI company from releasing a proper NSFW model? I hope it doesn't happen but I want to know what prevents them from doing it now.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#327

Post by simianwords »

leptons wrote: post #209
jononor wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is being played like a winner-takes-it-all right now (it may or may not be such a market). So it is a game of being the one that is left standing, once the others fall off. In this kind of game, speeding more is done as a strategy to increase the chances of other competitors running out of cash or otherwise hitting a wall. Sustainability is the opposite of the goal being pursued... Whether one reaches "AGI" is not…

It's the Uber business plan - losing money until the competition loses more and goes out of business. So far Lyft seems to be doing okay, which proves the business plan doesn't really work.

Uber is profitable so why do you think it doesn't work?

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#328

Post by simianwords »

rich_sasha wrote: post #283
llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

It's the SV playbook: invent a field, make it indispensable, monopolise it and profit. It still amazes me that Uber, a taxi company, is worth however many billions. I guess for the bet to work out, it kinda needs to end in AGI for the costs to be worth it. LLMs are amazing but I'm not sure they justify the astronomical training capex, other than as a stepping stone.

SV playbook has been to make sustainable businesses. Uber makes profits, so do Google, Amazon and other big tech.

> LLMs are amazing but I'm not sure they justify the astronomical training capex, other than as a stepping stone.

They can just... stop training today and quickly recuperate the costs because inference is mostly profitable.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#329

Post by simianwords »

prasadjoglekar wrote: post #57
fullshark wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real world sees no other opportunities for outsized returns. Too much money chasing too little opportunity.

Yup! Public markets are at all time highs. Other hard assets are also at all time highs. This sort of speculative investment only makes sense when nothing else is attractive. And it's cash from asset managers. Its not 10Bn worth of compute time from Microsoft or Google.

Its a strange way to view things.. the investors found a place to invest money from which they can make profits and they did it.

Much like any other investment. What do you think makes this more speculative than any other investment?

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#330

Post by fidotron »

xpe wrote: post #301
fidotron wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't a market in that sense though - it's very much one sided what Anthropic tells us and they are privately traded. It is very far from a situation where the price discovery mechanism is allowed to work.

Here are some ways that it’s not very far from a market mechanism: 1. How much an organization is willing to invest in X competes against other market opportunities. 2. The effective price per share (as part of the latest round of financing) is an implicit negotiation. It is a matter of degree, sure, but my point still stands: there is a lot of collective information going into this valuation. So an individual should…

> there is a lot of collective information going into this valuation

No, there isn't. For example, I would like to legally bet against Anthropic existing as a going concern in five years. Where can I do this? All the information against them is discarded and hidden.

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