241–250 of 661 posts
I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
If I had a dime for every time I see this kind of hot take, I'd be able to buy an H200 with that. A man looks at economics. Understands nothing. Thinks it must be all fake and made up. He must be so smart for seeing it through!
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> AI companies are constrained by what fits in this generation of hardware, and waiting for the next generation to become available. Does this apply to Google that is using custom built TPUs while everyone else uses stock Nvidia?
By all accounts, what's in Google's racks right now (TPU v5e, v6e) is vaguely H100-adjacent, in both raw performance and supported model size. If Google wants anything better than that? They, too, have to wait for the new hardware to arrive. Chips have a lead time - they may be your own designs, but you can't just wish them into existence.
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We do seem to be hitting the top of the curve of diminishing returns. Forget AGI - they need a performance breakthrough in order to stop shoveling money into this cash furnace.
>cash furnace They don't even burn it on on AI all the time either: https://openai.com/sam-and-jony/
This is an extraordinary moment.
Computers are now seeing, thinking and understanding.
Despite this unprecedented capability, our experience remains shaped by traditional products and interfaces."
I don't even want to learn about them every line is so exhausting
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost. Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference... Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.
Or, as in the case of a leading North American LLM provider, I would love to be able to choose an older model but it chooses it for me instead.
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It is being played like a winner-takes-it-all right now (it may or may not be such a market). So it is a game of being the one that is left standing, once the others fall off. In this kind of game, speeding more is done as a strategy to increase the chances of other competitors running out of cash or otherwise hitting a wall. Sustainability is the opposite of the goal being pursued... Whether one reaches "AGI" is not…
It's the Uber business plan - losing money until the competition loses more and goes out of business. So far Lyft seems to be doing okay, which proves the business plan doesn't really work.
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yeah, had CZ not made those tweets... He only had to weather another 2 months of the BTC bear market. BTC began to rebound in Jan 2023. Of course hindsight is 20-202
CZ was a minor factor. Someone internal leaked the balance sheet. Hindsight says, don't do fraud.
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Continuing to carve out economies of scale in battery + photovoltaic for another ten doublings has plenty of positive externalities. The problem is that in the meantime, they're going to nuke our existing powergrid, created in the 1920's to 1950's to serve our population as it was in the 1970's, and for the most part not expanded since. All of the delta is in price-mediated "demand reduction" of existing users.
A lot of the biggest data centers being built are also building behind the meter generation dedicated to them.
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If I had a dime for every time I see this kind of hot take, I'd be able to buy an H200 with that. A man looks at economics. Understands nothing. Thinks it must be all fake and made up. He must be so smart for seeing it through!
Economics is entirely made up. It's a social science.
The laws of economics have the kind of inevitability you expect from the laws of physics. Disrespect them at your own peril.
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alphabet is "worth" 2.45 trillion on the public market, is anthropic worth a bit less than 10% of google going forward? I don't think that's entirely unreasonable...
Alphabet 2024 revenue: 350 billions dollars Anthropic 2024 revenue: 1 billion dollars Unreasonable doesn’t even start to capture it. Anthropic being worth 10% of Alphabet is beyond insane.