161–170 of 661 posts
Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.
I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
Remember, every technology you use today followed this pattern, with winners emerging that absolutely did go on to be extremely profitable for decades.
Most of us remember the .com era. But in the early 1900s there was literally hundreds of automotive startups (actual car companies, and tens of thousands of supplier startups) in the metro-detroit area: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_man...
Some of these went on to be absolutely fantastic investments, most didn't. All VCs and people who invest in venture know this pattern.
Everybody involved knows exactly the high risk level of the bets they are making. This is not "dumb" money detached from reality, and the pension funds with a 3% allocation to venture are going to be just fine if all these companies implode, this is just uncorrelated diversification for them. The point of these VC funds is to lose most of the time and win big very rarely.
There will be crashes, and more bubbles in the future. Humans will human. Everything is fine.
The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
Nice timing? I am sure they have scored a deal with the selling of personal data
I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
comparisons with internet age very much resonate - dark compute will be as dark fiber was
Some will be used a lot will be written off and tossed away.
It's hard to escape the conclusion this is dumb money jumping on a bandwagon. To justify the expected returns here requires someone to make a transformer like leap again, and that doesn't take spending huge amounts in one place, but funding a lot more speculative thinkers.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost. Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference... Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.
We do seem to be hitting the top of the curve of diminishing returns. Forget AGI - they need a performance breakthrough in order to stop shoveling money into this cash furnace.
I don't think we're hitting peak of what LLMs can do, at all, yet. Raw performance for one-shot responses, maybe; but there's a ton of room to improve "frameworks of thought", which are what agents and other LLM based workflows are best conceptualized as.
The real question in my mind is whether we will continue to see really good open-source model releases for people to run on their own hardware, or if the companies will become increasingly proprietary as their revenue becomes more clearly tied up in selling inference as a service vs. raising massive amounts of money to pursue AGI.
Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.
>"Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses." Things working out in the end doesn't make what he did not a crime at the time. He was a common paper hanger, albeit with billions instead.
Morally speaking, no. Practically speaking, it does. He would not have seen jail time.
I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
Before you pat yourself on the back for being so smart and grounded... Remember, every technology you use today followed this pattern, with winners emerging that absolutely did go on to be extremely profitable for decades. Most of us remember the .com era. But in the early 1900s there was literally hundreds of automotive startups (actual car companies, and tens of thousands of supplier startups) in the metro-detroit…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> In the early days of FedEx, Smith had to go to great lengths to keep the company afloat. In one instance, after a crucial business loan was denied, he took the company's last $5,000 to Las Vegas and won $27,000 gambling on blackjack to cover the company's $24,000 fuel bill. Some who take on unreasonable risk will be among the most successful people alive. Most will lose eventually, long before you hear about them i…
You know, it only just now occurs to me to wonder if the blackjack story is the public sanitized version of "how I got $24k because I'm not allowed to tell you the real version"
Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.
yeah, had CZ not made those tweets... He only had to weather another 2 months of the BTC bear market. BTC began to rebound in Jan 2023. Of course hindsight is 20-202
Hindsight says, don't do fraud.