Wait did I see “ Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan” as an investor? Are they putting Canadian public funds into Anthropic?
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Anthropic raises $13B Series F
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Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's still bleeding money with no profitability in sight, niche product or household name
same again for Amazon, Tesla, Uber and others. Then they began making billions. Anthropic is not a niche anymore though. Same for Chat GPT.
Are they the exceptions or the rules, that's the question.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#93I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
comparisons with internet age very much resonate - dark compute will be as dark fiber was
For me that brings up two questions:
1) Will I (and others) be able to get a H100 (or similar) when the bubble pops, and would that lead to new innovations from the GPU poor?
2) Will China take the lead in AI as they are less "capitalistic" with the demands for outsized returns on their investment compared to US companies, and they may be more willing to continue to sink money into AI despite possible market returns?
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#94Interesting that investors pay so many billions for a product that just iterates until something, somehow compiles but emits subtle garbage.
Intellectual engagement goes down, users get dumber and only look at quantity. China is taking first steps to continue its excellence. In the New York Post of all places:
https://nypost.com/2025/08/19/world-news/china-restricts-ai-...
"It’s just one of the ways China protects their youth, while we feed ours into the jaws of Big Tech in the name of progress."
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#95Just a question of time until the bubble will burst.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#96One of my rules of thumb: When money is growing on trees, pick it.
That applies to individuals, but it probably also applies to companies. We're in an AI boom? Raise some money while it's easy.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#97The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
And we're still sort of on the fence if it's even that useful?
Like sure it saves me a bit of time here and there but will scaling up really solve the reliability issues that is the real bottleneck.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
alphabet is "worth" 2.45 trillion on the public market, is anthropic worth a bit less than 10% of google going forward? I don't think that's entirely unreasonable...
Alphabet 2024 revenue: 350 billions dollars Anthropic 2024 revenue: 1 billion dollars Unreasonable doesn’t even start to capture it. Anthropic being worth 10% of Alphabet is beyond insane.
I thought the same when choosing to invest in Intel rather than NVidia in 2022. At the time, Intel was worth $310B while NVidia was worth $650B, yet Intel's revenue was $80B/year while NVidia's was $25B. I was like "There's no way I'm paying 2x the price for 1/3 the revenue." Now, NVidia is worth $4T (a return of roughly 7x) on revenue of $165B, and Intel is worth $105B (a return of roughly -66%) on revenue of $53B.
Investors are forward looking, and market conditions can change abruptly. If Anthropic actually displaces Google, it's amazingly cheap at 10% of Alphabet's market cap. (Ironically, I even knew that NVidia was displacing Intel at the time I invested, but figured that the magnitude of the transition couldn't possibly be worth the price differential. News flash: companies can go to zero, and be completely replaced by others, and when that happens their market caps just swap.)
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#99I don't get the sky high valuation of LLM companies. I mean I get that these guys need a lot of money for compute to train the next generation of models. But Distillation does make it easy for other providers to replicate gains made by these providers at a much lower cost. On a long enough timeframe, the open source models will catch up to the proprietary models and inference providers will beat these proprietary com…
The high valuations are essentially lottery tickets, not something based on any sort of calculation of discounted future cashflows. The bet is that the researchers working for some of those frontier AI model companies will come up with innovations that give them a sustainable competitive advantage that goes beyond just purchasing more compute and licensing more proprietary training data. Obviously they can't all succeed but perhaps one or two will get lucky, perhaps by figuring out how to greatly improve efficiency or something that isn't easily copied.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
Always makes you wonder how many companies that are successes today could’ve had their SBF moment, but market conditions kept them afloat
> In the early days of FedEx, Smith had to go to great lengths to keep the company afloat. In one instance, after a crucial business loan was denied, he took the company's last $5,000 to Las Vegas and won $27,000 gambling on blackjack to cover the company's $24,000 fuel bill. Some who take on unreasonable risk will be among the most successful people alive. Most will lose eventually, long before you hear about them i…
You know, it only just now occurs to me to wonder if the blackjack story is the public sanitized version of "how I got $24k because I'm not allowed to tell you the real version"