I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
So, a bubble?
Anthropic raises $13B Series F
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Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#52Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#53The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…
That's why wealthy investors connected to the AI industry are also throwing a lot of money into power generation startups, particularly fusion power. I doubt that any of them will actually deliver commercially viable fusion reactors but hope springs eternal.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#54I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
comparisons with internet age very much resonate - dark compute will be as dark fiber was
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#55Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.
Always makes you wonder how many companies that are successes today could’ve had their SBF moment, but market conditions kept them afloat
I think it's really objectionable to refer to this as an "SBF moment".
It's not just about surviving a downtown and unforseen circumstances with some luck (like the sibling talking about FedEx barely making it). Tesla, for example, was famously extremely close to bankruptcy.
But SBF got into the situation he was in due to his egregious fraud. The accounting at FTX was a criminal joke, with multiple sets of books, bypassable controls, outright fake numbers. My guess is that if SBF had survived that particular BTC downturn that his extreme hubris and willingness to commit fraud would have eventually done him in - downturns always happen at some point, and his brazenness in his criminal enterprise showed no signs of learning from mistakes.
Sure, all hugely successful companies have a ton of luck involved. But I think it's a mistake to pretend that SBF was just done in by bad timing, or that all companies do what he did. His empire collapse was pretty inevitable IMO if you look at what a clown show FTX was under the covers.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#56well i really hope they will use some of this money to compete with codex and release something quick
chat gpt 5 in codex is really good
so much that i stopped used claude code altogether
cheaper too
made me realize nobody has moat, coders especially will just go to whoever provides best bang for their buck.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#57I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world
The real world sees no other opportunities for outsized returns. Too much money chasing too little opportunity.
Yup! Public markets are at all time highs. Other hard assets are also at all time highs. This sort of speculative investment only makes sense when nothing else is attractive.
And it's cash from asset managers. Its not 10Bn worth of compute time from Microsoft or Google.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#58Earlier quoted context omitted.
The trustee's reports on FTX's internal processes were damning. Even they had held their Anthropic on the way up, who's to say their internal FTT ledger and black holes in the Alameda books would not have eclipsed that? The issue wasn't that crypto markets in general were down at that point; the issue was they were doing frauds.
the frauds were stopped by Sam going to jail. There was still money left by liquidating, which in hindsight was a very poor timing.
The job of the trustee of a bankrupt company is not to commit further fraud by gambling with the remaining funds.
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#59Wait did I see “ Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan” as an investor?
Are they putting Canadian public funds into Anthropic?
Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F
#60These numbers seem made up at times / difficult to comprehend what they expect is happening ...
People said the same about Open AI in 2023, only valued at $30 billion at the time, and then seemingly overnight Chat GPT become a major commercial product rivaling Google. Or Tesla valuations in 2019. It went from a niche brand to Teslas everywhere after Covid. These VCs are not as irrational as commonly assumed. They know if a product gains critical mass , it can become everything.
It's still bleeding money with no profitability in sight, niche product or household name