Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Anthropic raises $13B Series F

anthropic.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 661 posts

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#41

Post by ankit219 »

Their projections for ARR at the end of this year at a high of $9B[1] at the end of this year. And reported gross margins of 60% (-30% with cloud providers partnerships). All things considered, if this pans out, it's a 20x multiple. High yes, but not that crazy. Specially considering their growth rate and that too at a decent margin at gm level.

[1]: It was $3B at the end of May (so likely $250M in May alone), and $5B at end of july (so $400M that month).

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#42

Post by brandall10 »

bambax wrote: post #21
jdoliner wrote: post #5

Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.

Probably would have made his crimes less visible, but not less criminal.

Let's not pretend there aren't multitudes out there doing similar things who never get caught. SBF was just more egregious and untimely w/ his actions.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#43

Post by seneca »

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #11
duxup wrote: post #2

These numbers seem made up at times / difficult to comprehend what they expect is happening ...

alphabet is "worth" 2.45 trillion on the public market, is anthropic worth a bit less than 10% of google going forward? I don't think that's entirely unreasonable...

It feels a bit unreasonable to me. Anthropic is arguably comparable to Google's Gemini program. Is Gemini 10% of Alphabet's value? If so, how much of that is because of its ability to consume and interact with things like YouTube and Workspaces?

I could see two or three percent, but this seems like a pretty big stretch. Then again, I'm not a VC.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#44

Post by NitpickLawyer »

baalimago wrote: post #25

Prediction: this is the final big "hufff" before the bubble bursts.

If we make a comparison to the dotcom bubble, this bubble will take the equivalent of catsdotcom and dogsdotcom, not the equivalent of FAANG++. And even that comparison is iffy, because we just don't know where the end is with this one. We've seen capabilities only increase so far. We've also seen prices decrease by orders of magnitude between SotA "generations". Things continue to scale, and no one knows how far it'll go. There's a reason everyone is doing the coding agent cli of the month, and everyone is heavily subsidising coding - data, more data, and crucially (hah) signals on generation quality, acceptance rate and so on. Take that, put it in the new generation, training goes brr, post-training goes RL, etc.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#45

Post by LarsDu88 »

jdoliner wrote: post #5

Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.

So the difference between criminal fraud, and precient genius investor is a difference of a year or so.

We should all try to remember this the next time we vote to cut taxes on billionaires.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#46

Post by me551ah »

I don't get the sky high valuation of LLM companies. I mean I get that these guys need a lot of money for compute to train the next generation of models. But Distillation does make it easy for other providers to replicate gains made by these providers at a much lower cost.

On a long enough timeframe, the open source models will catch up to the proprietary models and inference providers will beat these proprietary companies on price.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#48

Post by stefan_ »

jdoliner wrote: post #5

Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.

What if we put criminals into prison because they committed crimes, regardless of them making their victims "whole" (it would not happen anyway).

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#49

Post by FergusArgyll »

paulddraper wrote: post #39
llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

Reductive. Doesn’t explain Deepseek.

Deepseek story was way overblown. Read the gpt-oss paper, the actual training run is not the only expense. You have multiple experimental training runs as well as failed training runs. + they were behind SOTA even then

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#50

Post by ealexhudson »

paulpauper wrote: post #19
ealexhudson wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trustee's reports on FTX's internal processes were damning. Even they had held their Anthropic on the way up, who's to say their internal FTT ledger and black holes in the Alameda books would not have eclipsed that? The issue wasn't that crypto markets in general were down at that point; the issue was they were doing frauds.

the frauds were stopped by Sam going to jail. There was still money left by liquidating, which in hindsight was a very poor timing.

Sure, but would we really want to tell liquidators to manage assets for best eventual return rather than just convert everything to cash? In this instance, in hindsight, sure - you'd want the other thing, you want the bitcoin not the cash. But this feels like the exception that proves the rule.
Post reply on HN