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Anthropic raises $13B Series F

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#31

Post by duxup »

paulpauper wrote: post #13
duxup wrote: post #2

These numbers seem made up at times / difficult to comprehend what they expect is happening ...

People said the same about Open AI in 2023, only valued at $30 billion at the time, and then seemingly overnight Chat GPT become a major commercial product rivaling Google. Or Tesla valuations in 2019. It went from a niche brand to Teslas everywhere after Covid. These VCs are not as irrational as commonly assumed. They know if a product gains critical mass , it can become everything.

I'm not sure a couple successes makes sense of these numbers.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#32

Post by miltonlost »

tinyhouse wrote: post #20
duxup wrote: post #2

These numbers seem made up at times / difficult to comprehend what they expect is happening ...

This is the fastest-growing company by revenue, jumping from $1B to $3B in just five months. Hitting $10B is only a matter of time, which would put its valuation at a reasonable ~18x sales multiple. It doesn't even matter where we are in the AI hype cycle - AI adoption will keep increasing, it's not even a question at this point. From a technical perspective, they manage to attract top talent - Google / OpenAI lose a…

My baby grew from 9 pounds to 18 pounds in a 3 months! Hitting 10000 lbs is only a matter of time.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#33

Post by aqme28 »

tinyhouse wrote: post #20
duxup wrote: post #2

These numbers seem made up at times / difficult to comprehend what they expect is happening ...

This is the fastest-growing company by revenue, jumping from $1B to $3B in just five months. Hitting $10B is only a matter of time, which would put its valuation at a reasonable ~18x sales multiple. It doesn't even matter where we are in the AI hype cycle - AI adoption will keep increasing, it's not even a question at this point. From a technical perspective, they manage to attract top talent - Google / OpenAI lose a…

I thought ~20x or so was a good baseline earnings multiple. I have no idea what makes sense as a revenue multiple but I bet it would be a lot lower than that.

Edit: After looking it up, normal P/Sales ratios are on the order of about 1. They vary from like .2 to 8 depending on industry.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#34

Post by duxup »

llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

It's not clear to me that each new generation of models is going to be "that" much better vs cost.

Anecdotally moving from model to model I'm not seeing huge changes in many use cases. I can just pick an older model and often I can't tell the difference...

Video seems to be moving forward fast from what I can tell, but it sounds like the back end cost of compute there is skyrocketing with it raising other questions.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#35

Post by fullshark »

usrnm wrote: post #9

I feel like the money itself makes less and less sense these days. It's just numbers that are becoming increasingly detached from the real world

The real world sees no other opportunities for outsized returns. Too much money chasing too little opportunity.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#36

Post by toomuchtodo »

bambax wrote: post #21
jdoliner wrote: post #5

Every round Anthropic raises twists the knife deeper in SBF. If only he could have survived the downturn his Antropic investment alone probably could have papered over the other loses.

Probably would have made his crimes less visible, but not less criminal.

Like Martin Shkreli, who made his investors whole with his gambling, but still went to jail.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#37

Post by StopDisinfo910 »

aaronblohowiak wrote: post #11
duxup wrote: post #2

These numbers seem made up at times / difficult to comprehend what they expect is happening ...

alphabet is "worth" 2.45 trillion on the public market, is anthropic worth a bit less than 10% of google going forward? I don't think that's entirely unreasonable...

Alphabet 2024 revenue: 350 billions dollars Anthropic 2024 revenue: 1 billion dollars

Unreasonable doesn’t even start to capture it. Anthropic being worth 10% of Alphabet is beyond insane.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#39

Post by paulddraper »

llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

Reductive.

Doesn’t explain Deepseek.

Re: Anthropic raises $13B Series F

#40

Post by scellus »

llamasushi wrote: post #22

The compute moat is getting absolutely insane. We're basically at the point where you need a small country's GDP just to stay in the game for one more generation of models. What gets me is that this isn't even a software moat anymore - it's literally just whoever can get their hands on enough GPUs and power infrastructure. TSMC and the power companies are the real kingmakers here. You can have all the talent in the w…

So far it doesn't seem like winner-take-all, and all the major players (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Google, Meta?) are backed by strong partnerships and a lot of capital. It is capital-intensive this round though, so the primary producers are big and few. As long as they compete, benefits mostly go to other parties (= society) through increased productivity.
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