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AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

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Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#111

Post by HeWhoLurksLate »

nine_k wrote: post #68
mjr00 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Everyday, I see ads on YouTube with smooth-talking, real-looking AI-generated actors. Each one represents one less person that would have been paid. Were AI-generated actors chosen over real actors, or was the alternative using some other low-cost method for an advertisement like just colorful words moving around on a screen? Or the ad not being made at all? The existence of ads using generative AI "actors" doesn't…

It means that being a live actor is less of a differentiator. Of course great movie stars will remain, playing live, or animating computer characters, no matter. But simpler works like ads featuring a human now become more accessible. Among other things, this will remove most entry-level jobs, making senior-level actors more rare and expensive.

I think this means that personal branding is going to get even more important than it already is (for example, people watching movies specifically because of Ryan Reynolds, or avoiding them because of Jared Leto)

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#112

Post by burnte »

zarzavat wrote: post #99
burnte wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a difference between taking one thing and putting something else in it's spot, and truly REPLACING something. Yes, some ads have AI generated actors. You know because you can tell because they're "not quite right", rather than focusing on the message of the ad. Noticing AI in ads turns more people off than on, so AI ads are treated by a lot of people as an easy "avoid this company" signal. So those AI ads are…

Realistic video generation only became a thing in the last year or so. How long do you suppose it will be before we can't tell the difference between it and reality anymore? A few years at the most. Then what?

I don't think AI will ever be able to compete with real actors, not in a meaningful way.

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#113

Post by kazinator »

boesboes wrote: post #64
frank_nitti wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your sentiment. But where I struggle is: to what degree do each of those ads “represent one less person who would have been paid” versus those that represent one additional person who would not be able to afford to advertise in that medium. Of course that line of reasoning reduces similar to other automation / minimum wage / etc discussions

It reminds me of the piracy lawsuits that claimed damages as if every download would have been a sale

The extreme opposite idea that no unlicensed use of software is a lost sale is likewise a fantasy.

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#114

Post by flappyeagle »

MintPaw wrote: post #58
manoDev wrote: post #10

I'm tired of the anthropomorphization marketing behind AI driving this kind of discussion. In a few years, all this talk will sound as dumb as stating "MS Word spell checker will replace writers" or "Photoshop will replace designers". We'll reap the productivity benefits from this new tool, create more work for ourselves, output will stabilize at a new level and salaries will stagnate again, as it always happens.

You say it as a joke, but spell check has replaced certain tiers of editors. And Photoshop has replaced certain tiers of designers.

Bad ones

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#115

Post by anthonypasq »

bakugo wrote: post #47
anthonypasq wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

gpt-5 is extremely cheap, what makes you think they couldn't produce a larger, smarter, more expensive model? gpt-5 was created to be able to service 200m daily active users.

> what makes you think they couldn't produce a larger, smarter, more expensive model? Because they already did try making a much larger, more expensive model, it was called GPT-4.5. It failed, it wasn't actually that much smarter despite being insanely expensive, and they retired it after a few months.

that was not a reasoning model.

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#116

Post by kazinator »

mjr00 wrote: post #50
kazinator wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generative AI is replacing writers, designers, actors, ... it is nothing like just a spell checker or Phtoshop. Everyday, I see ads on YouTube with smooth-talking, real-looking AI-generated actors. Each one represents one less person that would have been paid. There is no exact measure of correctness in design; one bad bit does not stop the show. The clients don't even want real art. Artists sometimes refer to commer…

> Everyday, I see ads on YouTube with smooth-talking, real-looking AI-generated actors. Each one represents one less person that would have been paid. Were AI-generated actors chosen over real actors, or was the alternative using some other low-cost method for an advertisement like just colorful words moving around on a screen? Or the ad not being made at all? The existence of ads using generative AI "actors" doesn't…

It is likewise a fallacy that no pirated copy of software represents a lost sale.

Use of AI is exerting a downward pressure on artists and designers to get paid.

It's not true that AI is only servicing the pent-up demand for that kind of work from clients who would never have paid people to do it.

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#117

Post by manoDev »

MintPaw wrote: post #58
manoDev wrote: post #10

I'm tired of the anthropomorphization marketing behind AI driving this kind of discussion. In a few years, all this talk will sound as dumb as stating "MS Word spell checker will replace writers" or "Photoshop will replace designers". We'll reap the productivity benefits from this new tool, create more work for ourselves, output will stabilize at a new level and salaries will stagnate again, as it always happens.

You say it as a joke, but spell check has replaced certain tiers of editors. And Photoshop has replaced certain tiers of designers.

Not a joke.

Proofreaders still exist, despite spell checker. Art assistants still exist, despite Photoshop. There's always more work to do, you just incorporate the new tools and bump the productivity, until it gets so commoditized it stops being a competitive advantage.

Saying AI "replaces" anyone is just a matter of rhetoric to justify lower salaries, as always.

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#118

Post by b112 »

leptons wrote: post #93
xaindume wrote: post #6

Using a calculator won't make you a mathematician, but a mathematicians with a calculator can show you amazing things.

Calculators wont give you completely wrong results, not even once, where "AI" does that way too often. If calculators did too, mathemeticians simply would not use them.

Most specifically, random wrong results. Some calculators have issues with rounding, but if you understand those issues, it's consistent.

Imagine driving your car, you turn right, but today turning right slams on the brakes, and 10 people rear end you! That's current AI.

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#119

Post by kazinator »

burnte wrote: post #112
zarzavat wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Realistic video generation only became a thing in the last year or so. How long do you suppose it will be before we can't tell the difference between it and reality anymore? A few years at the most. Then what?

I don't think AI will ever be able to compete with real actors, not in a meaningful way.

Animated films have competed for box office dollars since basically the dawn of cinema. Animated characters have fan followings.

Just wait; the stuff is coming. Ultra-realistic full-length feature films with compelling AI characters that are not consistent from beginning to end, but appear in multiple features.

The public will swallow it up.

Re: AI’s coding evolution hinges on collaboration and trust

#120

Post by elcritch »

roxolotl wrote: post #92
MorehouseJ09 wrote: post #82

“If it takes longer to explain to the system all the things you want to do and all the details of what you want to do, then all you have is just programming by another name,” I think this is going to make the difference between junior and senior engineers even more drastic than it is today. It's really hard to know what/how to even describe real problems to these tools, and the people who invest the most in their too…

That quote really perfectly encapsulates the challenge with these tools. There is an assumption that inherently code is hard to write and so if you could code in natural language it would save time. But code isn’t actually that hard to write. Sure some people are genuinely bad at it just like I’m genuinely bad at drawing but a bit of practice and most people can be perfectly competent at it. The hard part is the engi…

It's not too different in my opinion from the skills need to build complicated machinery like Boeing 747s despite how much Wallstreet and PHBs want to believe it's fungible. Having competent experienced engineers on the ground level watching these processes and constantly revising and adapting to everything from personnel, material, or vendor changes is so far irreplaceable.

Maybe if we get super AGI one day. Even then I suspect that from a thermodynamics perspective that might not be cost effective as you often need localized on site intelligence.

It's an interesting question but I bet humans combined with AI tooling will remain cost competitive for a long time barring leaps in say quantum compute. After all organic brains operate at the atomic level already and were honed in an extremely competitive environment for billions of years. The calories and resources required to create highly efficient massively powerful neural compute had incredibly thin resource "margins" with huge advantages for species to utilize.

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