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Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#801

Post by xuki »

danpalmer wrote: post #741
xuki wrote: post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For the past 15 years, mobile has been the main revenue source for Facebook. As big as Facebook is, they're at the mercy of the 2 competitors: Apple and Google. Apple has been very hostile to Facebook, because Facebook make a shitload of money off Apple's platform and they refused to pay a certain percentage to Apple - unlike Google who is paying 20B a year to access iOS users. Apple tried to cut Facebook off with AT…

> For the past 15 years, mobile has been the main revenue source for Facebook. As big as Facebook is, they're at the mercy of the 2 competitors Before mobile was this big, Facebook tried their own platform and bottled it. This was during the period that the market was still diverse, with Windows phones, Blackberries, etc. They also tried to make mobile web a thing for a few years past when it was obvious that native…

Facebook certainly did not have the resources and experiences to make a mobile OS at that point. Microsoft tried and failed, there was no space for a 3rd mobile OS.

> They also tried to make mobile web a thing for a few years past when it was obvious that native apps were the way forward.

This was one of the first friction Facebook encountered with Apple. They wanted to make their own store in the Facebook app on iOS, but obviously Apple said no. Maybe doing Facebook app in HTML5 was a way to protest against the way Apple was moving things forward, but again it didn't work, their app was crap and they rewrote everything in native.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#802

Post by ath3nd »

aspenmayer wrote: post #797
ath3nd wrote: post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Meta serves the purposes of the IC status quo The problem is that their products are getting worse and worse. Signal is already taking a huge share from WhatsApp (ads and AI chat bots, really?) and Messenger. TikTok absolutely obliterated Instagram. Facebook is sliding into irrelevancy, and most importantly, they have a lot of failed products like Oculus, Metaverse (wtf is it anyway), LLAMa, etc. Now they are slidi…

They can just buy other companies for 5 years and coast, or they would have done if not for antitrust concerns under Biden. They can afford to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to rockstars for well over 5 years, and acquihire their way to acquiring the next big thing. I think they’re probably appropriately valued alongside other trillion dollar companies, but they will likely find that it’s less lonely at the top…

> They can just buy other companies for 5 years and coast

No, what they could do in the past is not at all how they can operate today. They can't afford to pay the rockstars anymore, they went through multiple rounds of layoffs. They can't afford to drop the stock too low also. Basically they are in a corner, and I love it. Fingers crossed that within the next five years they shake up upper management and Zuck is out.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#804

Post by ath3nd »

Imustaskforhelp wrote: post #777
ath3nd wrote: post #749

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And like VR? And like...LLAMa? Maybe also like adding ads in WhatsApp cause we gotta squeeze our users so we can spend on... AI gurus? Meta has not had a win since they named themselves Meta. It's enjoyable to watch them flail around like clueless morons jumping on every fad and wasting their time and money.

It makes me feel better / more comfortable with myself seeing what meta does. Almost being childish. Maybe this sounds selfish but its a little fun to me to see them lose. I just don't like meta and its privacy in sensitive ad network bullshit. Like the fact that if someone clicked a photo and deleted it then show them beauty ads because they are insecure. I can't give 2 cents about the growth of such a black mirror…

> I can't give 2 cents about the growth of such a black mirror -esque company

I would donate my two cents or even more to witness their downfall though. I left WhatsApp years ago, and haven't used any of their other services like fb or Instagram. I don't want to contribute to a company that actively helped a couple of genocides (Myanmar), help elect a dictator or two (Philippines) and spread racist propaganda and, most recently, allowing women to be called 'personal objects'.

Their tech is far from impressive, their products are far from impressive, the only impressive thing is that they are still in business.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#805

Post by piva00 »

zpeti wrote: post #126
piva00 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like do people here really think making some bad decisions is incompetence? > If you do, your perfectionism is probably something you need to think about. > Or please reply to me with your exact perfect predictions of how AI will play out in the next 5, 10, 20 years and then tell us how you would run a trillion dollar company. It's the effect of believing (and being sold) meritocracy, if you are making literal bill…

He’s not “being paid that much” He’s earned almost all his money through owning part of a company that millions of shareholders think is worth trillions, and does in fact generate a lot of profits. A committee didn’t decide Zuckerberg is paid $30bn. And id say his work is pretty exceptional. If it wasn’t then his company wouldn’t be growing. And he’d probably be pressured into resigning as CEO

Yes, I do know all of that semantics, thanks for stating the obvious.

Being rewarded for creating a privacy destroying advertising empire, exceptional work. Imagine a world where the incentives were a bit different, we might have seen other kind of work rewarded instead of social media and ads.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#806

Post by randomNumber7 »

miki123211 wrote: post #708
deegles wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do Are we though? Aside from a narrow set of tasks like translation, grammar, and tone-shifting, LLMs are a dead end. Code generation sucks. Agents suck. They still hallucinate. If you wouldn't trust its medical advice without review from an actual doctor, why would you trust its advice on anything else? Also, the companies trying to "fix" issues with LLMs wit…

> If you wouldn't trust its medical advice without review from an actual doctor, why would you trust its advice on anything else? When an LLM gives you medical advice, it's right x% of the time. When a doctor gives you medical advice, it's right y% of the time. During the last few years, x has gone from 0 to wherever it is now, while y has mostly stayed constant. It is not unimaginable to me that x might (and notice…

If you consider how little time doctors have to look at you (at least in Germanys half broken public health sector) and how little they actually care ...

I think x is already higher than y for me.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#807

Post by aspenmayer »

ath3nd wrote: post #802
aspenmayer wrote: post #797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They can just buy other companies for 5 years and coast, or they would have done if not for antitrust concerns under Biden. They can afford to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to rockstars for well over 5 years, and acquihire their way to acquiring the next big thing. I think they’re probably appropriately valued alongside other trillion dollar companies, but they will likely find that it’s less lonely at the top…

> They can just buy other companies for 5 years and coast No, what they could do in the past is not at all how they can operate today. They can't afford to pay the rockstars anymore, they went through multiple rounds of layoffs. They can't afford to drop the stock too low also. Basically they are in a corner, and I love it. Fingers crossed that within the next five years they shake up upper management and Zuck is out…

They’re laying off folks, but that doesn’t mean they’re doing it due to payroll pressure. They’re a megacorp. They can’t go broke from payroll, they have accountants for that. The folks getting acquihired and poached aren’t at risk of being laid off as long as they’re producing value. If the value they bring at Meta is also not being provided elsewhere, so much the better for Meta. It hurts Meta’s competitors more than it hurts Meta, because Meta won’t miss the money. They don’t need high headcount, they need folks who are irreplaceable. It’s a different hiring process for different jobs.

I doubt Zuck is out anytime soon, unless folks stop using their products compared to alternatives. I think it’s possible, but I think the odds are at best even for him to go in 5 years. In 10 years, who can say? Facebook users are pretty locked in because there’s nothing else like it for the users that regularly use it. Facebook users who aren’t on alternatives aren’t just going to switch to Reddit or TikTok overnight. Why would they? I can’t follow your reasoning, but I understand not being a fan of Zuck or Meta, I guess, but I think their business seems pretty strong right now, though that is subject to change along with consumer whims.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#808

Post by nebula8804 »

mschuster91 wrote: post #662
djtango wrote: post #618

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a great example that I hadn't heard of and reminds me of when Nintendo tried to become an ISP when they built the Family Computer Network System in 1988 A16Z once talked about the scars of being too early causes investors/companies to get fixed that an idea will never work. Then some new younger people who never got burned will try the same idea and things will work. Prodigy and the Faminet probably fall into…

Reminds me of Elon not taking a no for an answer. He did it twice, with a massive success. A true shame to see how he's completely lost track with Tesla, the competition particularly from China is eating them alive. And in space, it's a matter of years until the rest of the world catches up. And now, he's ran out of tricks - and more importantly, on public support. He can't pivot any more, his entire brand is too tox…

I dont know, you could argue that maybe GM with the EV1 was the 'too early' EV and Tesla was just at the right moment. Same goes for SpaceX, The idea of a reusable launcher was not a new idea and studied by NASA. I think they did some test vehicles.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#809

Post by elAhmo »

danpalmer wrote: post #706

Zuckerberg either doesn't have the resolve for changing the business, or just keeps picking the wrong directions (depending on your biases). First Facebook tried to pivot into mobile, pushed really hard for a short time and then flopped. Then Facebook tried really hard to make the Metaverse a thing, and for a while, but eventually Meta stopped finding it interesting and significantly reduced investment. Then AI was t…

He, as many other billionaires, confused luck for skill. Just because they were at the right time in the right place to launch something, doesn't mean their other ideas are solid or make sense.

Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears

#810

Post by dig1 »

danpalmer wrote: post #748
foxylad wrote: post #717

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cory Doctorow has a compelling theory that the megatech companies have to appear to be startups, or else their share price reverts to normal multiples. Hence the continuous string of increasingly over-hyped "game-changing technologies" they all (not just Meta) keep rolling out. VR, blockchain and LLMs have their value, but it's a tiny fraction of the insane amounts of money being pumped into these bubbles. There will…

This may well be true, but my point is more that Facebook/Meta/Zuckerberg seem almost uniquely unable to turn the startups into great new businesses, when compared with the other big tech companies. Amazon added cloud and prime, Microsoft added cloud, xbox, 365, Google added Chrome, Android, cloud, Youtube, consumer subscriptions, workspace, etc. Netflix added streaming and their own content, Apple added mobile, wear…

> Facebook/Meta/Zuckerberg seem almost uniquely unable to turn the startups into great new businesses, when compared with the other big tech companies.

Really? Instagram, WhatsApp... the two most used apps & services in the world?

> Google added Chrome, Android, cloud, Youtube,

It's arguable how GCP is profitable, but chrome/android/yt are money-losing businesses if you exclude ad revenues.

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