And just three weeks ago I was suggesting a crash might hurt bad when this very meta announced 250 million dollar salary packages.
Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
441–450 of 936 posts
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#442Earlier quoted context omitted.
>luck, skill and hard work. Another key component is knowing the right people or the network you're in. I've known a few people that lacked 2 of those 3 things and yet somehow succeeded. Simply because of the people they knew.
> I've known a few people that lacked 2 of those 3 things and yet somehow succeeded Succeeded in making something comparable to facebook? Who are those?
No. Nothing of that scale. I was replying to OP's take on the 3 factors that lead to success in general. I was simply pointing out a 4th factor that plays a big role.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#443Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do, just like many VOD, smartphone and grocery delivery companies of the 90s did with the internet. The groundwork has been laid, and it's not too hard to see the shape of things to come. This tech, however, is still far too immature for a lot of use cases. There's enough…
>I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." I totally agree with you... though the other day, I did think the same thing about the 8bit era of video games.
It's a logical fallacy that just because some technology experienced some period of exponential growth, all technology will always experience constant exponential growth.
There are plenty of counter-examples to the scaling of computers that occurred from the 1970s-2010s.
We thought that humans would be traveling the stars, or at least the solar system, after the space race of the 1960s, but we ended up stuck orbiting the earth.
Going back further, little has changed daily life more than technologies like indoor plumbing and electric lighting did in the late 19th century.
The ancient Romans came up with technologies like concrete that were then lost for hundreds of years.
"Progress" moves in fits and starts. It is the furthest thing from inevitable.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#444Earlier quoted context omitted.
My favorite anecdote about Sears is from Starbucks current HQs - the HQs used to be a warehouse for Sears. Before renovation the first floor walls next to the elevators used to have Sears' "commitment to customers" (or something like that). To me it read like it was written by Amazon decades earlier. Something about how Sears promises that customers will be 100% satisfied with the purchase, and if for whatever reason…
Craftsman tools have almost felt like a life-hack sometimes; their no-questions-asked warranties were just incredible. My dad broke a Craftsman shovel once that he had owned for four years, took it to Sears, and it was replaced immediately, no questions asked. I broke a socket wrench that I had owned for a year and had the same story. I haven't tested these warranties since Craftsman was sold to Black and Decker, but…
FWIW, I bought a Craftsman 1/4" drive ratchet/socket set at a Lowes Home Improvement store last year, and when I got it home and started messing with it, the ratchet jammed up immediately (before even being used on any actual fastener). I drove back over there the next day and the lady at the service desk took a quick look, said "go get another one off the shelf and come back here." I did, and by the time I got back she'd finished whatever paperwork needed to be done, handed me some $whatever and said "have a nice day."
Maybe not quite as hassle free as in years past, but I found the experience acceptable enough.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#445Earlier quoted context omitted.
There’s no evidence that it’ll scale like that. Progress in AI has always been a step function.
There's also no evidence that it won't, so your opinion carries exactly the same weight as theirs. > Progress in AI has always been a step function. There's decisively no evidence of that , since whatever measure you use to rate "progress in AI" is bound to be entirely subjective, especially with such a broad statement.
What is your definition of "evidence" here? The evidence, in my view, are physical (as in, available computing power) and algorithmic limitations.
We don't expect steel to suddenly have new properties, and we don't expect bubble sort to suddenly run in O(n) time. You could ask -- well what is the evidence they won't, but it's a silly question -- the evidence is our knowledge of how things work.
Saying that improvement in AI is inevitable depends on the assumption of new discoveries and new algorithms beyond the current corpus of machine learning. They may happen, or they may not, but I think the burden of proof is higher on those spending money in a way that assumes it will happen.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#446That's a man with conviction
Sorry, I was in the metaverse just now. I took my headset off though — could you please repeat that?
the metaverse push is the perfect analogy
cool fun concepts/technology fucked by the worlds most boring people who only have desire to dominate markets and attention.. god forbid anything happen slowly/gradually without it being about them
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#447Mission accomplished: who'd tell disrupting your competition poaching their talent and erasing value (giving it away for free) would make people realize there is no long term value in the core technology itself.
Don't get me wrong, we are moving to commoditization, as any new tech it'd be transparent to our lifestyle and a lot of money will be done as an industry, but it'd be hard to compete as a core business competence w/o cheating (and by cheating I mean your FANG company already has a competitive advantage)
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#448Earlier quoted context omitted.
My favorite anecdote about Sears is from Starbucks current HQs - the HQs used to be a warehouse for Sears. Before renovation the first floor walls next to the elevators used to have Sears' "commitment to customers" (or something like that). To me it read like it was written by Amazon decades earlier. Something about how Sears promises that customers will be 100% satisfied with the purchase, and if for whatever reason…
Craftsman tools have almost felt like a life-hack sometimes; their no-questions-asked warranties were just incredible. My dad broke a Craftsman shovel once that he had owned for four years, took it to Sears, and it was replaced immediately, no questions asked. I broke a socket wrench that I had owned for a year and had the same story. I haven't tested these warranties since Craftsman was sold to Black and Decker, but…
Harbor freight is like that too.
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#449in a few months.."sorry my whims proved wrong again, so we'll take the healthcare and stability away from I guess 10% of you."
Re: Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears
#450It almost seems as though the record-setting bonuses they were dolling out to hire the top minds in AI might have been a little shortsighted. A couple of years ago, I asked a financial investment person about AI as a trick question. She did well by recommending investing in companies that invest in AI (like MS) but who had other profitable businesses (like Azure). I was waiting for her to put her foot in her mouth an…
I have an overwhelming feeling that what we're trying to do here is "Netflix over DialUp." We're clearly seeing what AI will eventually be able to do, just like many VOD, smartphone and grocery delivery companies of the 90s did with the internet. The groundwork has been laid, and it's not too hard to see the shape of things to come. This tech, however, is still far too immature for a lot of use cases. There's enough…
Is some potential AGI breakthrough in the future going to be from LLMs or will they plateau in terms of capabilities?
Its hard for me to imagine Skynet growing from chatgpt