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95% of Companies See 'Zero Return' on $30B Generative AI Spend

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11–20 of 445 posts

Re: 95% of Companies See 'Zero Return' on $30B Generative AI Spend

#11
The funniest part isn’t that AI hasn’t delivered profits. It’s that the only “value” most people got from LLMs was accidentally rediscovering what Google used to be before it turned into an ad-riddled casino.

Executives mistook that novelty for a business revolution. After years of degraded search, SEO spam, and “zero-click” answers, suddenly ChatGPT spat out a coherent paragraph and everyone thought: my god, the future is here. No - you just got a glimpse of 2009 Google with autocomplete.

So billions were lit on fire chasing “the sliced bread moment” of finally finding information again - except this time it’s wrapped in stochastic parroting, hallucinations, and a SaaS subscription. The real irony is that most of these AI pilots aren’t “failing to deliver ROI” - they’re faithfully mirroring the mediocrity of the organisations deploying them. Brittle workflows meet brittle models, and everyone acts surprised.

The pitch was always upside-down. These things don’t think, don’t learn, don’t adapt. They remix. At best they’re productivity duct tape for bored middle managers. At worst they’re a trillion-dollar hallucination engine being sold as “strategy.”

The MIT study basically confirms what was obvious: if you expect parrots to run your company, you get birdshite for returns.

Re: 95% of Companies See 'Zero Return' on $30B Generative AI Spend

#15
1 in 20 doesn't sound great. But you have to mediate that with

- everyone and their mother are doing a "generative ai program" right now, a lot of times just using the label to try to get their project funded, ai being an afterthought

- if the 1 out of 20 projects is game-changing, then you could argue right now people should actually be willing to spend even more on the opportunity, maybe the number should actually be 1 in 100. (The VC model is about having big success 1 in 10 times.)

- studies of ongoing business activities are inherently methodologically limited by the data available; I don't have a ton of confidence that these researchers' numbers are authoritative -- it's inherently impossible to truly report on internal R&D spend especially a private companies without inside information, and if you have the inside information you likely don't have the full picture.

Re: 95% of Companies See 'Zero Return' on $30B Generative AI Spend

#16
We are entering the “Trough of disillusionment.” These hype cycles are very predictable. GPT-5 being panned as a disappointment after endless hype may go down as GenAI’s “jump the shark” moment.

It’s all fun and games until the bean counters start asking for evidence of return on investment. GenAI folks better buckle up. Bumps ahead. The smart folks are already quietly preparing for a shift to ride the next hype wave up while others ride this train to the trough’s bottom.

Cue a bunch of increasingly desperate puff PR trying to show this stuff returns value.

Re: 95% of Companies See 'Zero Return' on $30B Generative AI Spend

#18
post #3

I'm confused, which point of the hype cycle is this?

You just wait, when we achieve agi it’ll drive hype cycles at a speed humans have no chance of keeping up with. We will always effectively be in all points of the hype cycle at once. Money will wash randomly through the economy like soap through your laundry. You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Re: 95% of Companies See 'Zero Return' on $30B Generative AI Spend

#20
post #8

The link to their referenced study doesn't seem to work? This is confusing.. it's directly saying AI is improving employee productivity, but that's not leading to more business profit... how does that happen?

Possible conclusion: most of the work that employees do has no direct impact on earnings.
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