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Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

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Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#11

Post by berntb »

lmm wrote: post #10

>Apple is the innovation leader. What, after all, has Amazon (or Microsoft) actually invented here? Nothing. It's not like Apple invented anything either. As with most things they do, the ipad's secret was not innovation but polish, taking existing technology and putting in the integration and software effort to make turn it into a great user experience. I'm not saying this isn't valuable, but it's fundamentally no m…

>>the ipad's secret was not innovation but polish [which is no more innovative than selling products cheap to earn money on content, Amazon Kindle style]

Uhm, no one on the planet knew how to build an affordable pad that would be interesting outside niches. Microsoft tried for a long time, too.

Then comes the iPhone/iPad. The market, the world, is different.

I do smell a bit of spin in what you wrote... :-)

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#12

Post by cooldeal »

archangel_one wrote: post #9
cooldeal wrote: post #8

>The tablet market was already broadening, flattening, and moving down market before yesterday’s Amazon announcement Right, but Microsoft is trying to bring it up market with the Surface Pro and other small x86 tablets(many of which seem to come with a keyboard or a laptop style dock, sometimes optional). Eg. see http://www.engadget.com/2012/08/30/hp-envy-x2-laptop-tablet-... As I posted in another comment a few days…

So these new Surface Pro things are going to be like a current ipad-style tablet, but with a keyboard, heavier, have shorter battery life and be more expensive. That sounds very much like a device I already have, which is called a laptop. It runs Eclipse pretty well on the rare occasions I want it to. Less than $100 is still a pretty hefty tag in this market too; that's half the price of a Nexus 7! I think Microsoft…

>So these new Surface Pro things are going to be like a current ipad-style tablet, but with a keyboard, heavier, have shorter battery life and be more expensive. That sounds very much like a device I already have, which is called a laptop. It runs Eclipse pretty well on the rare occasions I want it to.

This reminds me of the folks that discounted the iPad because it was not good as a smartphone for portability(oversized iPod Touch) and much less powerful than a laptop. Predictions based on personal anectodes in a billion plus device market are a dangerous thing.

I agree that the Surface Pro is trying to create a new market here(spaced between iPad style tablets and the laptops/MB Air/Ultrabooks which is an uphill task, but I do think there are a lot of people who want a no-compromises powerful portable tablet for on-the-go use.

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#13

Post by lmm »

berntb wrote: post #11
lmm wrote: post #10

>Apple is the innovation leader. What, after all, has Amazon (or Microsoft) actually invented here? Nothing. It's not like Apple invented anything either. As with most things they do, the ipad's secret was not innovation but polish, taking existing technology and putting in the integration and software effort to make turn it into a great user experience. I'm not saying this isn't valuable, but it's fundamentally no m…

>>the ipad's secret was not innovation but polish [which is no more innovative than selling products cheap to earn money on content, Amazon Kindle style] Uhm, no one on the planet knew how to build an affordable pad that would be interesting outside niches. Microsoft tried for a long time, too. Then comes the iPhone/iPad. The market, the world , is different. I do smell a bit of spin in what you wrote... :-)

If you're talking about changing individual people's lives, I'd be willing to bet that the amazon effort will eventually reach more people than apple did, simply because the market at $299 is a lot bigger than that at $499.

If you're talking about showing the world what's possible, those of us who had tablets years before the ipad could see that. The software was clunky, but if you were willing to spend time learning and work with it (which, yes, is a niche market) you could do everything you can today.

What apple did was undeniably a huge step forward. But I don't think it was qualitatively different from those who came before or after, and I think chalking up their success to "innovation" is missing the point.

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#14

Post by ams6110 »

just as Apple had to accept competition in the MP3 player market, Cupertino will have to adapt to the Kindle Fire HD.

Did Apple "accept" competition in the MP3 player market? There were mp3 players before the iPod. Apple came into the market and absolutely owned it. Portable music = iPod. That's the end of the story.

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#15

Post by seanmcdirmid »

cooldeal wrote: post #12
archangel_one wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So these new Surface Pro things are going to be like a current ipad-style tablet, but with a keyboard, heavier, have shorter battery life and be more expensive. That sounds very much like a device I already have, which is called a laptop. It runs Eclipse pretty well on the rare occasions I want it to. Less than $100 is still a pretty hefty tag in this market too; that's half the price of a Nexus 7! I think Microsoft…

>So these new Surface Pro things are going to be like a current ipad-style tablet, but with a keyboard, heavier, have shorter battery life and be more expensive. That sounds very much like a device I already have, which is called a laptop. It runs Eclipse pretty well on the rare occasions I want it to. This reminds me of the folks that discounted the iPad because it was not good as a smartphone for portability(oversi…

The tablet market, at this moment, is going the other way, to include devices that are cheaper, a bit smaller, and more oriented toward pure consumption (Nexus 7, Fire HD, iPad Mini). This market has lower margins but the potential for lots of sales even beyond the iPad today.

Now Microsoft comes with Surface (Pro and non-Pro), sounds like they are going after niche high-end tablet markets (those who want Office + a keyboard), and higher-end tablet markets (though who want to run Visual Studio). Completely opposite direction that at best will be a successful ultra-book. I'm not seeing mass appeal, but a lot of that will come down to pricing.

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#16

Post by seanmcdirmid »

lmm wrote: post #13
berntb wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>the ipad's secret was not innovation but polish [which is no more innovative than selling products cheap to earn money on content, Amazon Kindle style] Uhm, no one on the planet knew how to build an affordable pad that would be interesting outside niches. Microsoft tried for a long time, too. Then comes the iPhone/iPad. The market, the world , is different. I do smell a bit of spin in what you wrote... :-)

If you're talking about changing individual people's lives, I'd be willing to bet that the amazon effort will eventually reach more people than apple did, simply because the market at $299 is a lot bigger than that at $499. If you're talking about showing the world what's possible, those of us who had tablets years before the ipad could see that. The software was clunky, but if you were willing to spend time learning…

Innovate on the experience, not just the features dammit! I'm really tired of hearing this refrain that Apple is not innovative because all they do is take existing features and put them into....a package that people can actually use!? But then "isn't that the easy, uncreative, uninnovative part?" Yes, building usable experience is innovation, and yes its very important.

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#17

Post by lmm »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #16
lmm wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're talking about changing individual people's lives, I'd be willing to bet that the amazon effort will eventually reach more people than apple did, simply because the market at $299 is a lot bigger than that at $499. If you're talking about showing the world what's possible, those of us who had tablets years before the ipad could see that. The software was clunky, but if you were willing to spend time learning…

Innovate on the experience, not just the features dammit! I'm really tired of hearing this refrain that Apple is not innovative because all they do is take existing features and put them into....a package that people can actually use!? But then "isn't that the easy, uncreative, uninnovative part?" Yes, building usable experience is innovation, and yes its very important.

>"isn't that the easy, uncreative, uninnovative part?" Yes, building usable experience is innovation, and yes its very important.

If you consider that to be innovation, surely offering an equivalent product at a substantially lower price (as amazon is doing) involves just as much innovation.

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#18

Post by cooldeal »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #15
cooldeal wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So these new Surface Pro things are going to be like a current ipad-style tablet, but with a keyboard, heavier, have shorter battery life and be more expensive. That sounds very much like a device I already have, which is called a laptop. It runs Eclipse pretty well on the rare occasions I want it to. This reminds me of the folks that discounted the iPad because it was not good as a smartphone for portability(oversi…

The tablet market, at this moment, is going the other way, to include devices that are cheaper, a bit smaller, and more oriented toward pure consumption (Nexus 7, Fire HD, iPad Mini). This market has lower margins but the potential for lots of sales even beyond the iPad today. Now Microsoft comes with Surface (Pro and non-Pro), sounds like they are going after niche high-end tablet markets (those who want Office + a…

New products can and do disrupt market trends, especially in such a huge market.

> sounds like they are going after niche high-end tablet markets (those who want Office + a keyboard), , and higher-end tablet markets (though who want to run Visual Studio).Completely opposite direction that at best will be a successful ultra-book.

Niche in this market mean at least tens of millions of people. Not to say that the Surface Pro will succeed(pricing is important as you say) but the laptop/ultrabook market is still much bigger than the tablet, both the install base and sales.

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#19

Post by berntb »

lmm wrote: post #13
berntb wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>the ipad's secret was not innovation but polish [which is no more innovative than selling products cheap to earn money on content, Amazon Kindle style] Uhm, no one on the planet knew how to build an affordable pad that would be interesting outside niches. Microsoft tried for a long time, too. Then comes the iPhone/iPad. The market, the world , is different. I do smell a bit of spin in what you wrote... :-)

If you're talking about changing individual people's lives, I'd be willing to bet that the amazon effort will eventually reach more people than apple did, simply because the market at $299 is a lot bigger than that at $499. If you're talking about showing the world what's possible, those of us who had tablets years before the ipad could see that. The software was clunky, but if you were willing to spend time learning…

>>I think chalking up [Apple's] success to "innovation" is missing the point

I didn't chalk anything up to anything.

I noted that you were smoking something strange -- probably found at a marketing department -- when you wrote that the iPhone/iPad was as innovative as the Amazon "sell the razor cheap, earn money on the blades" strategy...

Just because lots of people had been trying to create pads, but failed. (Because they were innovative?:-) )

You didn't touch that simple point.

Re: Kindle Fire HD hurts Microsoft more than Apple

#20

Post by Tloewald »

DaNmarner wrote: post #2

> “if Apple gives up its position” which it clearly hasn’t. so, moot? > Amazon is copying Apple’s playbook, page-by-page... > What, after all, has Amazon (or Microsoft) actually invented here? Nothing. They’ve emulated Apple at a lower price point and to some extent disintermediated the mobile carriers. Not according to Jeff Bezos, who spend a good portion of his presentation explaining how Amazon make money with the…

The consumer doesn't care what the business model is. Microsoft's problem is that all its entry points into the market are being taken away. If it wants to go cheap it has to deal with the $299 Fire HD and the $199 (sort of) Nexus 7. Apple already straddles $399-$499. Those are brand name competitors with premium products and decent or better ecosystems.

It's not clear what Amazon's business model is. Bezos claims he wants to make money on content and not lose too much on devices, but he's losing money on Prime too. It seems to me Amazon's model is to get as much market power as possible -- ideally a monopoly -- and then charge rents, but I don't see how any such monopoly would be sustainable (at least without the DOJ foolishly helping). The one area where Amazon (temporarily) held a near monopoly was ebooks and this is precisely what it did (it still tries, only more subtly).

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