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The author isn't exactly a thought leader in the space, or really any space for that matter. Opinion worth nothing.
Bubbles are a lot easier to visualise from the outside.
I just don't get why did Altman had to hype this release so much, what was the plan? Also, what was the deal with all those mysterious Star Wars pictures?
Initially politicians were responsive. In Feb. 2024 he sought trillions of investment to ramp up "AI" [1]. Then he got the White House announcement with Trump and Softbank for the $500 billion Stargate deal. The project has flopped, only one data center will be built. So I assume he thought hype would work again, but people are beginning to scrutinize the real capabilities of "AI". [1] https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/sam…
But they are clearly on their way to build 20 data centers[1]. OpenAI raising $500B over 10-15 years to build inference capacity isn’t really that hard to believe or that impressive at this point tbh. Like that could just be venture debt that is constantly serviced.
gpt5 has always been about making a "collection of models" work together and not about model++. This was announced what, a year ago? And they delivered. Capabilities ~90-110% of their top tier old models at 4-6x lower price. That's insane!
gpt5-mini is insane for its price, in agentic coding. I've had great sessions with it, at 0.x$ / session. It can do things that claude 3.5/3.7 couldn't do ~6 months ago, at 10-15x the price. Whatever RL they did is working wonders.
Meh. Crashes come when there was no real business value. I use AI all day and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
You fall into all or nothing logic. That's thinking failure.
If real business value is 10% of the price, there will be massive crash and years of slow advance.
Dot-com bust was like that. Internet clearly had value, but not as much and not as quickly as people thought.
Meh. Crashes come when there was no real business value. I use AI all day and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
>Theres 2 AI conversations on HN occurring simultaneously.
> Convo A: Is AI actually reasoning? does it have a world model? etc..
> Convo B: Is it good enough right now? (for X, Y, or Z workflow)
The internet reshaped the entire global economy, yet the dot com crash occurred all the same.
Convo A leads to questioning if the insane money being poured into AI make sense. The fact that many people are finding utility, doesn't preclude things from being over valued and over hyped.
Meh. Crashes come when there was no real business value. I use AI all day and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
That rings true and I suspect the bubble won't burst until something else comes along to steal the show.
Meh. Crashes come when there was no real business value. I use AI all day and I’m sure I’m not the only one.
State of AI in Business 2025 [pdf] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44941374 - August 2025
https://web.archive.org/web/20250818145714/https://nanda.med...
> Despite $30–40 billion in enterprise investment into GenAI, this report uncovers a surprising result in that 95% of organizations are getting zero return. The outcomes are so starkly divided across both buyers (enterprises, mid-market, SMBs) and builders (startups, vendors, consultancies) that we call it the GenAI Divide. Just 5% of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable P&L impact. This divide does not seem to be driven by model quality or regulation, but seems to be determined by approach.
The author isn't exactly a thought leader in the space, or really any space for that matter. Opinion worth nothing.
Have bubbles ever been successfully called by thought leaders?