Production doesn't show a massive dip, but does show a general decline.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&...
price spikes do seem to align though.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&...
What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
21–30 of 39 posts
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#22Looks to me like they split it up into retail sales by gas stations owned by the refiner, and wholesale sales for resale. Most sales are wholesale - http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&... Going to take a wild guess and say that a refinery sold some gas stations or somehow a bunch of sales got reclassified from retail to wholesale. See definitions http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_cons_refmg…
That was my conclusion as well, this seems to be a more realistic representation of consumption: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&...
Although its not easy to tell, the EIA's site could use some improvements in terms of clearly defining what the data displayed represents.
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#23Pretty simple: the U.S. economy is contracting severely, even though the manipulated (and preposterous, if you think about them for more than a moment) economic statistics (GDP, U3) are not. I'm not saying this is The Big One (I've been expecting it for a decade now) but I do expect The Big One to start a lot like this.
Do you have any evidence of this contraction? I'd be curious to hear which statistics you think are better indicators.
Sure.
You are looking at one, in gasoline sales.
U6 over 15% looks pretty miserable:
http://helpthe99ers.blogspot.com/2012/02/graph-of-day-u3-u4-and-u6.html
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/united-states/state-taxes/california/general-sales-and-gross-receipts/tax-revenue-per-capita/2011/q3#graph
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
That would explain the steady decline, but doesn't explain what I think is the real question, the drastic drop starting in October 2011.
The data seems a bit fishy to me. I have a hard time believing that gasoline consumption did not change for 22 years (1986 to 2008).
Thats not what the data represents. It represents sales by refiners to retail. That is buying gas from a Shell gas station (also a refiner) counts, buying gas from a mom + pop corner store who wholesale buys their gas from a refiner (or distributor) doesn't count. The graph seems to just say that some refiner sold off their retail gas stations (or something like that).
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure it was a useful one. There is a similar dip in the early 90s that doesn't seem to correspond to much.
Perhaps sensitive but nonspecific?
look at historical prices, my guess is they were spiking
[yes, from $1.XX in '05 to $4.XX in '08]
edit: citation
http://66.70.86.64/ChartServer/ch.gaschart?Country=Canada...
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#26These numbers represent under 10% of total U.S. gasoline use so this is no way due to 'fuel economy' or 'driving less', it is just reflecting the fact that less and less gas stations are owned by refineries.
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#27Pretty simple: the U.S. economy is contracting severely, even though the manipulated (and preposterous, if you think about them for more than a moment) economic statistics (GDP, U3) are not. I'm not saying this is The Big One (I've been expecting it for a decade now) but I do expect The Big One to start a lot like this.
Do you have any real statistics to back up your statement? I can counter with other anecdotal stuff - where I live, housing prices are rising and unemployment dropping. So I guess I'll state that the economy is growing strongly. That doesn't make it any more true than your unsubstantiated statement.
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#28Pretty simple: the U.S. economy is contracting severely, even though the manipulated (and preposterous, if you think about them for more than a moment) economic statistics (GDP, U3) are not. I'm not saying this is The Big One (I've been expecting it for a decade now) but I do expect The Big One to start a lot like this.
Do you have any evidence of this contraction? I'd be curious to hear which statistics you think are better indicators.
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have any evidence of this contraction? I'd be curious to hear which statistics you think are better indicators.
Sure. You are looking at one, in gasoline sales. U6 over 15% looks pretty miserable: http://helpthe99ers.blogspot.com/2012/02/graph-of-day-u3-u4-and-u6.html and the less-easily-manipulated population employment ratio is bouncing along the bottom (maybe contracting): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 General sales taxes in CA are down (although the latest data is not up yet): http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/u…
None of those three look good, but, as far as I can tell, none indicate a contraction... at worst they indicate that things are remaining bad, but not getting worse. The first appears to be improving, slowly. The second appears to be hovering aroung the same level since 2010. The third link is broken for me, but when I find the data I think you're referencing on that site it appears that there is a dip in the latest quarter, but if you look at the history that data clearly does not track the overall performance of the economy very closely. I can't say I find your claim very credible so far, but if you have additional evidence I'd be very interested.
Re: What is up with U.S. retail gasoline deliveries?
#30Average vehicle fuel economy hit its all-time high [1], and there's been a massive cut-back in how much people drive [2]. Americans are driving less and when they do drive, they're driving cars that use less fuel per mile. You can likely credit the fuel economy increase on the federal mandates for higher MPG ratings on new cars, and the cut-back in driving on the high unemployment and stagnant/falling real wages of t…
Alternatively, you can credit both the fuel economy increase and the cut-back in driving on higher gas prices, which can in turn be credited to rising global demand for gasoline.
Prices can rise in response to both rising demand and falling supply.
Given that we're within the window of peak oil forecasts, and demand (particularly in India and China) has been rising, it's very likely both.