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What could have been

coppolaemilio.com

11–20 of 127 posts

Re: What could have been

#11
ZIRP->AI/enshitification is the one-two punch combo that I think is going to devastate our economy for 50 years or more. We have an entire generation of executives, financiers and government that have only ever operated in an era of free money.

They've never had to generate a real return, create a product of real value, etc. This wave-of/gamble-on AI slop just shows that they don't even know what value looks like. We've operated for ~40 years on a promise of...something.

Re: What could have been

#12
I wonder about the world where, instead of investing in AI, everyone invested in API.

Like, surfacing APIs, fostering interoperability... I don't want an AI agent, but I might be interested in an agent operating with fixed rules, and with a limited set of capabilities.

Instead we're trying to train systems to move a mouse in a browser and praying it doesn't accidentally send 60 pairs of shoes to a random address in Topeka.

Re: What could have been

#13

I disagree. The hype is wearing people down and making it think it's a waste of time but LLMs just came out a couple years back and even the trendline from the past decade (pre-LLMs) is up up up. The amount of interest to explore this opportunity is worth it. The bubble is worth it. I don't think it's lost years, and even if it is, the technology is compelling enough to make the gamble worth it. The fatigue of readin…

I'm a massive AI skeptic, and I think the amount of money being spent is astonishing, but I really don't want to go back to searching the web the old way.

Asking Gemini _is_ just much better at finding you the answers you need, _and_ providing links for you to verify that information.

It will be a sad day when they start injecting ads, I really hope the foss alternatives catch up.

Re: What could have been

#14

I disagree. The hype is wearing people down and making it think it's a waste of time but LLMs just came out a couple years back and even the trendline from the past decade (pre-LLMs) is up up up. The amount of interest to explore this opportunity is worth it. The bubble is worth it. I don't think it's lost years, and even if it is, the technology is compelling enough to make the gamble worth it. The fatigue of readin…

/agree

We are in the infancy of LLM technology.

Re: What could have been

#15

More less you could say similar things about most of the crypto space too. I think maybe it's because we're at the point where a lot of things that tech can do, it's more than capable of doing, but they're just not easy to do out of a dorm room and without a lot of domain knowledge.

There is still so much one can build and do in a dorm room. The hardest part is still the hardest part in every business, which is getting sufficient money to get sufficient runway for things to be self sufficient.

Re: What could have been

#16

While I'm somewhat sympathetic to this view, there's another angle here too. The largesse of investment on a vague idea means that lots of other ideas get funding, incidentally. Every VC pitch is about some ground-breaking tech or unassailable moat that will be built around a massive SAM; in reality early traction is all about solving that annoying and stupid problem your customers hate doing but that you can do for…

It would be much better if we invested in meaningful things directly. So much time and effort is being put into making things AI shaped for investors.

The elephant in the room is that capital would likely be better directed if it was less concentrated.

Re: What could have been

#17
post #12

I wonder about the world where, instead of investing in AI, everyone invested in API . Like, surfacing APIs, fostering interoperability... I don't want an AI agent, but I might be interested in an agent operating with fixed rules, and with a limited set of capabilities. Instead we're trying to train systems to move a mouse in a browser and praying it doesn't accidentally send 60 pairs of shoes to a random address in…

the appeal of investors to AI is anti API/access.

Re: What could have been

#19
I've been watching this my whole life. UML, SOA, Mongo, cloud, blockchain, now LLMs, probably 10 others in between. When tools are new there's a collective mania between VCs, execs, and engineers that this tool unlike literally every other one doesn't have trade offs that make it only an appropriate choice in some situations. Sometimes the trade offs aren't discoverable in the nascent stage, a lot of it is monkey-see-monkey-do which is the case even today with React and cloud as default IMHO. LLMs are great but they're just a tool.

Re: What could have been

#20

While I'm somewhat sympathetic to this view, there's another angle here too. The largesse of investment on a vague idea means that lots of other ideas get funding, incidentally. Every VC pitch is about some ground-breaking tech or unassailable moat that will be built around a massive SAM; in reality early traction is all about solving that annoying and stupid problem your customers hate doing but that you can do for…

> Every VC pitch is about some ground-breaking tech or unassailable moat that will be built around a massive SAM

A surface-to-air missile?

As funny as that would be, maybe you should define your terms before you try to use them.

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