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US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

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371–380 of 412 posts

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price of gold is not immediately responsive to goods inflation, it can be lagging or leading and the correlation can also fluctuate. Long term it's been good at tracking money supply but short term it doesn't necessarily give you a timely signal.

Lagging by 10-20 years like between 1980 - 2002 when it declined even in nominal terms despite consumer prices more than doubling? If you bought in 1980 you would have had to wait until 2024 to break even when adjusted by CPI…

Over a time frame of multiple decades, it's been volatile but overall kept pace with money supply. Timing is always tricky, even with SP500 which has given higher return.

Maybe "good at" was stretching it, but there are things that lagged forever, such as a retail savings account and Japanese government bonds. It's tracked CPI better than silver.

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not being sarcastic when I say it probably looks great on an economist's resume to say they were fired by the Trump admin.

What happens when no-one wants to hire them in fear of retributions from the Trump government?

Please tell us what happened in this imaginary scenario of yours, I'm curious

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#373

So if you tax imported raw materials, intermediary goods, and other inputs, then producer prices go up... who would have known!

Not necessarily! If you implement a tiered tax credit on gross regenue earned for wages paid, that decreases exponentially from the lowest-paid worker percentile to the highest, then producers could offset the tax on imported materials by paying an increased share of the revenue to their lowest-paid workers rather than raising prices. The government wins because household buying power and taxes paid increase, the hou…

that's not even close to what the government did. Less taxes for the rich and more for the workers won't help inflation

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#374
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The chicken nuggets were edging past $5 dollars before the tariffs, during the Biden era. Mcdonalds owns Chipotle so they are well aware of premium pricing for regular food. They applied the same pattern to Mcdonalds, the same way Starbucks once convinced everyone coffee can be as much as $8. This is all before tariffs. No one's giving tariffs a pass, but we are giving regular people a pass for some reason. It takes…

The floor for prices on certain things have just gone up with no real reason other than "its about time we raised these prices", and it's happening in a collective way. This invalidates every supply and demand theories. I'm unconvinced that you are right.

In consumer markets, the notion of a rational consumer is a myth.

If we had rational consumers then the world would be very, very different.

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#375
post #36

Are there inflation indicators that aren’t government controlled? Don’t think anything coming out of trump influenced bodies is worth the paper it’s on anymore

> Are there inflation indicators that aren’t government controlled? There have been research programs that collected the data themselves: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project

which became a hedge fund data provider

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not necessarily! If you implement a tiered tax credit on gross regenue earned for wages paid, that decreases exponentially from the lowest-paid worker percentile to the highest, then producers could offset the tax on imported materials by paying an increased share of the revenue to their lowest-paid workers rather than raising prices. The government wins because household buying power and taxes paid increase, the hou…

that's not even close to what the government did. Less taxes for the rich and more for the workers won't help inflation

Oh, sure, tax the rich! Specifically, I would start with break up the untaxable trusts and corporate holdings exemptions, and cancel the real estate “unrented properties” tax rebate so that they’re forced to lease at market rates or otherwise sell dormant property holdings. But that’s not going to have any effect on inflation, so I’m not going to discuss that further it in this inflation-focused post.

If you tax corporations directly, they’ll just raise prices to pass the tax on to workers — but if you don’t tax corporate profits properly, they’ll just raise prices to consume all worker income and suffocate the dual competitors of entrepreneurs and of quality of life gains by households — so you have to tax corporations in a way that charges them extra revenue tax when their profits go up faster than their wages, neutralized only by paying workers more and maintain or lower prices. That’s what this proposes: either they help the Fed meet inflation targets by raising wages rather than prices, or they see their profits reduced in a way that can’t be charged to workers — as doing so would raise prices and thus inflation, which would further amplify their tax against their profits, resulting in a death spiral for their corporation between shrinking demand and growing overhead. (And, in times of deflation, the opposite: they are compelled by threat of reduces profits to raise prices rather than wages, just as they do today exclusively, until inflation stabilizes at the Fed target of whatever percent.)

This all works because, in the U.S., the uncontrolled component of inflation is the growth in profits minus the growth in wages. You can’t specify a wage floor or companies will just lay people off or raise prices, and you can’t impose a simple tax on corporate profits or companies will just lay people off or raise prices. The only way to prevent that is to tax (growth in profits – growth in wages – inflation target), which in an excess-inflation climate such as today — combined with the classic U.S. revenue-scaled tax rate schedules — would cost corporations who don’t invest excessive profit growth back into their workforce more than the simple cost of the wage increases would have.

(The R&D exemption that Amazon abuses would, as previously discussed, need to be restricted to less than 100% of research costs; use the same profit tiering schedules as above so that R&D for a billion-dollar gross-profit before-deductions company is capped at one half of the annual inflation rate — once you’re making that much, you don’t need the exemption to grow.)

(Offshore labor would need to be estimated at the federal minimum wage rate adjusted for currency strength/weakness to the country hosting that labor, unless explicitly documented otherwise through worker counts and wages, which would significantly worsen the value of offshoring: offshoring-to-cheap-labor companies would be at a significant disadvantage for growth taxation versus those that simply paid the costs of domestic investment, training, and wages.)

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#377
post #36

Are there inflation indicators that aren’t government controlled? Don’t think anything coming out of trump influenced bodies is worth the paper it’s on anymore

What you really need to understand about inflation, is that we've had particularly exceptionally low long-term inflation in America for the last 50 years, outside of stagflation in the '70s. And this is all enabled by globalization and global trade. Globalization fundamentally provides arbitrage for two things. Labor costs, and environmental regulation. Because there were a lot of poor desperate countries that would…

> What you really need to understand about inflation, is that we've had particularly exceptionally low long-term inflation in America for the last 50 years, outside of stagflation in the '70s.

What you really need to understand is that we can, and we must absolutely, generally and non-exceptionally have low inflation at all times. There's absolutely no sane reason to have high inflation in a low-corruption financial system - none!

> Globalization... US Navy... US military... China hybrid... American lack of enthusiasm for guaranteeing shipping trade on the oceans.

A bunch of red herrings meaning nothing... It's not lack of enthusiasm, it's the overabundance of enthusiasm for tariffs and sanctions backed by the same US Navy & US Military to maintain a restricted trade regime which, not-accidentally, results in the US public being trapped in a monopolized and inflationary market.

> And that involves a huge amount of switching costs, which essentially is going to be inflation.

You mean, the population will bear the costs via the inflation tax, while the rich will be getting richer, because... historical norms should not be broken, especially this one?

Historically, messed up trade led to global wars, actually, it's either global trade or global wars, there's no middle ground. You failed to mention that important historical norm which is also one of the ways to make the rich richer.

The historical norms are something we should absolutely steer clear of, not use them as excuses for more nonsense in the future!

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, if the "real" inflation rate was ~10% starting in 1996 then a $5 burger today supposedly cost ~$0.30 in 1996. A lot of soda vending machines will sell a 20oz bottle of soda for ~$2.50. Were soda vending machines selling bottles of soda for $0.15 back then? No.

Guys and Dolls has 15 cent hot dogs advertised in one of the shots. Gas station hot dogs are about $1.50 now. Which is less than I’d have expected it to be, to be honest.

For a good to go from ~$0.15 to ~$1.50 from 1930 to 2025, the annual inflation rate would be...

...about 2.45% per year. And I'd probably take a 2025 hotdog over a 1930 hotdog, there's been a lot of food safety regulations passed since.

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's not even close to what the government did. Less taxes for the rich and more for the workers won't help inflation

Oh, sure, tax the rich! Specifically, I would start with break up the untaxable trusts and corporate holdings exemptions, and cancel the real estate “unrented properties” tax rebate so that they’re forced to lease at market rates or otherwise sell dormant property holdings. But that’s not going to have any effect on inflation, so I’m not going to discuss that further it in this inflation-focused post. If you tax corp…

Georgism as a way to tax wealth in a sensible pro-growth fashion is probably the ideal that we'll never achieve

Instead we get rhetoric, middle class taxes, and upper class tax breaks

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the risk of defending quackery, most claims about inflation being inaccurate involve the changes made to CPI estimations in 1996. I'll go as far as to say I've never heard any claim that is inaccurate going back to the 1970s.

Still, if the "real" inflation rate was ~10% starting in 1996 then a $5 burger today supposedly cost ~$0.30 in 1996. A lot of soda vending machines will sell a 20oz bottle of soda for ~$2.50. Were soda vending machines selling bottles of soda for $0.15 back then? No.

I distinctly remember McDonald's regular hamburgers costing around $0.30-0.40 in the mid '90s which costs around $4 now.
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