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US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

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Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the risk of defending quackery, most claims about inflation being inaccurate involve the changes made to CPI estimations in 1996. I'll go as far as to say I've never heard any claim that is inaccurate going back to the 1970s.

Still, if the "real" inflation rate was ~10% starting in 1996 then a $5 burger today supposedly cost ~$0.30 in 1996. A lot of soda vending machines will sell a 20oz bottle of soda for ~$2.50. Were soda vending machines selling bottles of soda for $0.15 back then? No.

Guys and Dolls has 15 cent hot dogs advertised in one of the shots.

Gas station hot dogs are about $1.50 now.

Which is less than I’d have expected it to be, to be honest.

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#362
post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I asked perplexity and there are a few independent calculations (ShadowStats, Truflation, Billion Prices) that put the rate at about 10% https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-is-the-us-inflation-ra...

If you actually stop and think about it for a couple seconds, you should realize immediately that a “secret” inflation rate of 10% is impossible. You can lie about that for a month or two, but 10% annual inflation means prices double every 7 years, which is obviously not what we observe.

It may not be what you observe, but frankly, prices doubling at a 7-year rate sounds a lot like what's actually happening.

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One is selling off our national parks/forests, removing protections for marine sanctuaries, but you essentially have no party?

The Democrats have functionally done nothing about global warming in the last thirty years except released even more CO2 in hot air paying lip service Yes, one is worse than the other. But in terms of real environmental policy, they are functionally the same.

I'm really puzzled how you claim to this conclusion. The positions and policies of the last two Democratic administrations are pretty well-known. They are trivially googlable. Or you can ask AI to summarize them for you. Off the top of my head, without going to Google I can think of Obama's CAFE standards and Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

When multiple independent research groups show that the impact of implementing these policies show significant reduction in projected greenhouse gas emissions and rolling them back shows the opposite effect, how do you make the claim that they are "functionally the same"? And I don't even count the soft power - one side consistently claims that climate change is a hoax and the other side consistently takes it seriously.

I don't understand this at all. I could get behind an "enlightened centrist" position when it comes to foreign policy in the Middle East. But environmental policy?

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem the admin has is that economists at the BLS by and large aren't scared of getting fired. That work experience is gold in the private sector - most of them can easily get a job in finance and 3x-4x their comp.

I'm not being sarcastic when I say it probably looks great on an economist's resume to say they were fired by the Trump admin.

What happens when no-one wants to hire them in fear of retributions from the Trump government?

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#365

So if you tax imported raw materials, intermediary goods, and other inputs, then producer prices go up... who would have known!

Not necessarily!

If you implement a tiered tax credit on gross regenue earned for wages paid, that decreases exponentially from the lowest-paid worker percentile to the highest, then producers could offset the tax on imported materials by paying an increased share of the revenue to their lowest-paid workers rather than raising prices. The government wins because household buying power and taxes paid increase, the household wins because buying power increases are decoupled from price increases, and shareholders win because wage increases shift the domestic demand outward (rightward), compensating for downward shift along the demand curve from price increases.

Setting the refund rate to (the target inflation rate minus the current inflation rate) times a constant defined by the Fed alongside the reserve rate also provides the Fed a long-term lever of financial incentive: for firms to increase wages paid rather than profits paid, when the Fed raises the constant to combat price inflation, and to increase profits paid rather than wages paid when the Fed lowers the constant to combat price stagnation. It also offers a control against layoffs for profit by specifying such that reduction in workforce in each percentile reduces the target inflation rate in the above equation; a layoff of the entire lowest-paid percentile to avoid lowering prices would result in a significant tax penalty charged at the next higher percentile’s rates, unless prices were so stagnant (or decreasing!) that the Fed’s target had been adjusted to allow it.

That this isn’t coded into today’s U.S. monetary policy is certainly true; but it merely requires an act of Congress to resolve. It’s important not to take for granted that what we’re used to is therefore what must be.

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#367
post #307
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally, intelligence officers/employees (such as people who work at NSA) deploy to bases, or FOBs. I'm sure there are a handful of "NSA outposts" but this isn't generally how it works.

I’m thinking of things like Room 641A. Is that regarded as a base?

No.

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#368
post #203
post #36

Are there inflation indicators that aren’t government controlled? Don’t think anything coming out of trump influenced bodies is worth the paper it’s on anymore

Gold. The purchasing power of Gold has been remarkably consistent over the long term. That is, if you convert the gold to dollars, how many eggs could you buy? To learn more, read up on the work of Keith Weiner of Monetary Metals, or listen to the early episodes of his podcast “The Gold Exchange”.

So there was no inflation whatsoever between 1980 and 2000. In fact there was slight deflation since the price of gold actually declined?

It’s easy to make data to fit your narrative when you ignore everything that conflicts with it..

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#369
post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with gold is that it's price fluctuates just like any other commodity. The practical uses of gold accounts for only ~8% of gold mined, while half is for vanity (jewelry, a luxury product) and the rest for speculation and reserves. Similar to fiat, most of the value in gold is in people believing it has value.

That's exactly why gold is a useful proxy. The price of gold is pretty much purely a function of how much money speculators have in their pockets. If inflation is high, it means there are more dollars that can go into gold speculation, driving up the nominal cost of gold. If the cost of gold is going down, it means the dollar is strong by comparison. If you used a proxy that had a significant utility in its own right…

I assume you never tried looking at the price of gold in the 80s and 90s?

i.e. it declined in nominal rates and collapsed by almost 4x if adjusted by CPI

Re: US Wholesale Inflation Rises by Most in 3 Years

#370
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold. The purchasing power of Gold has been remarkably consistent over the long term. That is, if you convert the gold to dollars, how many eggs could you buy? To learn more, read up on the work of Keith Weiner of Monetary Metals, or listen to the early episodes of his podcast “The Gold Exchange”.

The price of gold is not immediately responsive to goods inflation, it can be lagging or leading and the correlation can also fluctuate. Long term it's been good at tracking money supply but short term it doesn't necessarily give you a timely signal.

Lagging by 10-20 years like between 1980 - 2002 when it declined even in nominal terms despite consumer prices more than doubling?

If you bought in 1980 you would have had to wait until 2024 to break even when adjusted by CPI…

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