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Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

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Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#41

Post by kbrisso »

churchill wrote: post #4

I read the book referenced - Robert Lightizer's No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers - and it was eye-opening, if somewhat misguided. In it, the author blames China's industrial ascent for America's deindustrialization, the hollowing out of cities like Detroit, the fentanyl crisis, the looming challenge to American power in the Pacific, the intimidation of America's allies…

Free trade along with capitalism has brought more people out of poverty than any other economic theory/system. It's not perfect but you can't deny it's impact.

Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#42

Post by schmidtleonard »

ryeats wrote: post #32

Would be more interesting if someone came at this debate from a game theory perspective with bad actors ignoring IP laws, manipulating currency values and implementing tariffs through policies that aren't directly taxing products but restricting who can play in markets. Yes tariffs are bad in a vacuum and I am not saying this article is false even when it's strawmanning some arguments to make it's case but it's seems…

The "bad actor" strategy in question has been known for ages: it's called mercantilism. It's so old that it convinced Alexander Hamilton away from "free trade laa dee dah" so that he could enact the protectionism which eventually industrialized America.

More recently, China has been running the same playbook to great effect. It's really funny to watch the free trade crowd laud/fear the rise of China with one breath while calling the mercantilist playbook old and outdated with the next.

Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#43

Post by schmidtleonard »

kbrisso wrote: post #41
churchill wrote: post #4

I read the book referenced - Robert Lightizer's No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers - and it was eye-opening, if somewhat misguided. In it, the author blames China's industrial ascent for America's deindustrialization, the hollowing out of cities like Detroit, the fentanyl crisis, the looming challenge to American power in the Pacific, the intimidation of America's allies…

Free trade along with capitalism has brought more people out of poverty than any other economic theory/system. It's not perfect but you can't deny it's impact.

> It's not perfect

See, if anyone who said that took it seriously, or even partway seriously, I would find the prospect of free trade much less offensive. Yet the beneficiaries of "current account deficit equals capital account surplus" squeal like stuck pigs and cry "socialism! communism!" if one even hints at the possibility that they might pay a tax to help counterbalance the extent to which the asset pump / export dump negatively affects employment and drives inequality.

Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#44

Post by pkaye »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #9
churchill wrote: post #4

I read the book referenced - Robert Lightizer's No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers - and it was eye-opening, if somewhat misguided. In it, the author blames China's industrial ascent for America's deindustrialization, the hollowing out of cities like Detroit, the fentanyl crisis, the looming challenge to American power in the Pacific, the intimidation of America's allies…

> I have this belief that one of the reasons why inflation has been under control despite the QE experiments undertaken by the Federal Reserve, ECB, etc. is because of the impact of 600M Chinese workers Definitely. The other way to look at it is that we were exporting our inflation to places like China. But that's (for various reasons political and otherwise) starting to change which means we can expect to have highe…

Another reason is the Chinese population is becoming older and starting to decrease. Their median age crossed the US a few years ago. The one child policy allowed for lot more workers (fewer parents) in the past but its going to hurt them going forward.

Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#45

Post by simonh »

hgomersall wrote: post #23
diputsmonro wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which is exactly why strategies like UBI are so important. Eventually the average American with no specialized skill will find that they cannot produce value when competing on a global scale. Our strategy so far has been to let them starve and tell them to "learn to code" or "become a machine operator/technician", but that strategy can only help so many people. We do not need as many technicians as laborers that the…

It's not a UBI needed but a job guarantee. Those people that no longer have a job need to be made productive, both for society and for themselves. It's not like there aren't plenty of things that need doing!

Now you need to move and re-house the people to when it needs doing, train them, invest the capital costs needed, build out the administrative overhead, and tax the productive profitable economy to pay for it all.

If there are things that need doing, you need to consider is it better for the government to do it, or to pay the private sector to do it. In principle the latter will still need to employ people.

Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#46

Post by ghaff »

jncfhnb wrote: post #36
churchill wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the Chinese want to dilute the wealth of their people and use it to subsidize stuff for Western consumers, the smart thing to do would be to buy it! Anti-trade activists always agitate about how they'll jerk up prices after capturing markets, but Uber hasn't managed to pull it off, despite >$50 billion burned. The moment a company's margins hike significantly, they attract competitors chasing those same dollars an…

Uber prices have been increasing for years now at a rate much faster than inflation

So they had subsidized prices. Now a lot of people just go back to taking cabs or public transportation--or rent cars/drive.

Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#47

Post by thiagoharry »

barbazoo wrote: post #38
nahuel0x wrote: post #7

Tariffs wars are the prelude to military wars. Capitalism breeds globalization and then his destruction.

> Capitalism breeds globalization and then his destruction. Do we have any precedence for the destruction part?

The World Wars? It was after capitalism conquered the entire planet, and the main powers began disputing markets and colonies.

Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#48

Post by cvwright »

maxerickson wrote: post #39
somanyphotons wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difficulty is that while we can move the job to where the cheaper (or specialized) labor is, we can't (currently) easily move the people around to where the job is. So lower skilled people living in areas surrounded by high skill/cost people can't easily find a better Cost-of-Living balance. They get trapped with no job to match their skill. To put it more bluntly - the people of Detroit simply aren't allowed to…

All you people doing Detroit discourse need to also explain why the county just to the north, Oakland County, is one of the richest large counties in the United States. I guess they have a lot of Pizza Huts or something?

Are you trying to imply something racist? Just come out and say it.

Re: Exile Economics: If Globalisation Fails

#50

Post by FirmwareBurner »

schmidtleonard wrote: post #42
ryeats wrote: post #32

Would be more interesting if someone came at this debate from a game theory perspective with bad actors ignoring IP laws, manipulating currency values and implementing tariffs through policies that aren't directly taxing products but restricting who can play in markets. Yes tariffs are bad in a vacuum and I am not saying this article is false even when it's strawmanning some arguments to make it's case but it's seems…

The "bad actor" strategy in question has been known for ages: it's called mercantilism. It's so old that it convinced Alexander Hamilton away from "free trade laa dee dah" so that he could enact the protectionism which eventually industrialized America. More recently, China has been running the same playbook to great effect. It's really funny to watch the free trade crowd laud/fear the rise of China with one breath w…

> It's really funny to watch the free trade crowd laud/fear the rise of China with one breath while calling the mercantilist playbook old and outdated with the next.

"You dare use my own spells against me, Potter?!"

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