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The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

sas.upenn.edu

211–220 of 409 posts

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#211

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An artist creates wealth by painting a beautiful painting. Then he exchanges that wealth for money. At no point was wealth "transferred" to the artist. McDonald's creates wealth by designing and building a system to deliver hamburgers. McDonald's then exchanges that wealth for cash from its customers. BTW, who gives money to people who already have it? Not me. I doubt you do, either. I don't know anybody who does. Th…

I think perhaps you are discussing too many threads simultaneously. I'm fully onboard with Maccas and Artists creating something thus creating wealth. Also, yes, transaction are exchanges. Nobody is arguing that. You pay rent and in exchange you may use the land (productively or not) My argument is that people are forced to pay rent to people who didn't create anything, but because they hold a piece of paper that say…

The person who owns it bought it from person who created it.

The person who bought it then manages it, maintains it, organizes it, advertises it, pays taxes on it, etc.

And there's nothing wrong with that.

If rentable places were not allowed to be sold, very very few would exist. This is because people specialize - some build rentals, some manage them. Both are productive enterprises.

You can become a landlord if you want. Borrow the money, buy a rental, and rent it out. But you'll find out it's a lousy business.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#212
post #114
post #51

The selection effects of this transition will be really fascinating to see after the fact. The species has spent a long time under selection pressure for "having more kids", but is being subjected for the first time to "having more kids while extreme prosperity and modern telecommunications exist" which is a very different thing.

> The species has spent a long time under selection pressure for "having more kids" This needs to be carefully qualified. Infant mortality rates for the first 99% of human history were so shockingly, stupefyingly high, that a woman might only expect to have about three of her children survive to adulthood (and maternal mortality rates were also so high that a woman wouldn't expect to survive more childbirths than 5 o…

This article [1] claims that it's actually still quite higher than replacement, to make people around ancient Mediterranean have to resort to various kinds of birth control (be it violent or non violent). Medicinal revolution do lowers death rate significantly but I guess the reason why we haven't normalized late/late marriage pattern as birth control until recently is because of abundance of resource resulted by industrial and agricultural revolution.

1. https://acoup.blog/2025/08/08/collections-life-work-death-an...

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#213
post #188
post #120

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> Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. I speculate that a different thing is happening in Europe. Every time I hear European takes on issues, it feels like Europe is post-religion, post-values, post-meaning. Everything is relative; pleasure is the only personal goal, and not harming others is the only external goal. Why even have kids? Why get married? It's a lot of work, plus the…

Why is fertility so low in Iran then? Or very Catholic Poland? It does not seem to correlate strongly with religion or belief systems. The strongest correlation I see is urbanization. People in cities don’t have kids as much.

Anecdotal observation / hypothesis:

- there's an inverse relationship between quality of life and density, even within individual households

- there's a higher premium on space in urbanized areas than in rural areas

- there's been a move towards urbanization across the world, high HDI, low HDI, high religion, low religion

I propose something similar to Parkinson's Law: Average family size expands (or contracts) to fill the physical space that is economically viable for a given individual/family.

Rationally, this couldn't be the only factor, given density and urbanization patterns predate the more rapid fertility decline in recent decades, but as one more factor on top of a pile of others that may also be contributing to the trend, I think it could plausibly play a contributing role in the decline.

Thoughts?

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#214
post #117

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It's not just rent, it's also transportation. Transporting young kids with a car is easy, public transportation is much harder until they are 10 or so. For example try transporting a sleepy kid, or more than 1 young kid at the same time. Cities are cars don't get along very well, which makes them less friendly to kids. Suburbs are really nice for kids, basically zero car traffic, you can play in the street, easily go…

Transportation can be a challenge, but I don’t agree that a car is a requirement. When I’m in Japan it’s common to see parents carting around a kid or two on an appropriately kitted out bike for example. That wouldn’t be as practical in a sprawling suburb, but it can work in denser cities. > Suburbs are really nice for kids, basically zero car traffic, you can play in the street, easily go to parks. And when the pare…

> When I’m in Japan it’s common to see parents carting around a kid or two on an appropriately kitted out bike for example.

Yes, and now look at their fertility rates.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#215
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, this is a quaint narrative, but it doesn't explain the fact that fertility is falling everywhere on earth, regardless of current economy, colonial past, continent, race, or religion.

Put another way: It's falling in Western countries because we're commiting cultural suicide for the reasons I cited for Europe (the US is behind Europe, but seems to be on the same road). It's falling in countries like China because they moved like 70% of their population from farms to huge cities in the last 40 years, which causes their society to work much more like... the West. Places like Africa, etc. are falling…

Latin America is probably the region to look at since it's more developed than Africa but less so than the US and Europe, and has developed dramatically in recent decades. One or two generations ago people still had massive families, but now their rates are falling and in my experience educated, independent women are not particularly interested in having families, or only in having small ones.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#216
post #28

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Paul Ehrlich was the most visible figure in the midcentury fear of overpopulation. He claimed that by now we'd have seen starvation so profound around the world (100,000,000s dead of starvation) that large portions of the third world would collapse completely and that the only mechanism to prevent this starvation was extreme population control measures placed by the west on the rest of the world (including things lik…

India got there on overpopulation. Total fertility rate around 6 in 1965. India does not have enough water for its population.[1] China would have hit similar problems if not for their one-child policy. China managed to avoid the overshoot when medicine starts to work but the economy hasn't developed yet. India didn't. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_scarcity_in_India

That article says climate change is an important cause of water scarcity in India. India didn't cause climate change alone or even in large part.

India's TFR dropped below 2 in 2024.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For what it's worth, I'm also a single gay man and think similarly at times about the path not taken, and why I chose not to adopt as I had originally planned in my 20s. It sucks, but I'm content with being the cool Uncle to my niblings and providing external support to my siblings as needed. Society needs more than just parents in order for children to thrive, and I believe queer folk are ideally suited to fill in a…

Disclaimer: my thought process tends to be somewhat autistic, I don’t mean any offense. As a non gay man I am just curious to hear your perspective. From a strictly biological perspective, I think it could be argued that gay “sex” isn’t actually sex. Like, what makes it sex? Is it sex for pleasure? Or is it something adjacent to sex? That has some commonalities with sex, but isn’t actually sex. Like there is a part o…

In society an affair is still an affair even if no PV intercourse occurred. Sex comes under the category of “I’ll know it when I see it” / “just understood” things most humans do not realize has very fuzzy edges. The narrow definition is, from the autism perspective, one of the many useless definitions. You will be better served by (yet another) exhaustive list of edge cases.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#218
post #204
post #18

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The drop in fertility rate is directly liked to migration into dense cities. They are just not a good place to have children. The US resisted the fertility drop for much longer, because of higher suburban population.

Any data for this? I think this maybe the real answer because unlike other explanations, this one can actually acquire proof from before modern ages. Simply because it's known that cities fertility rates were always negative and have to constantly pull people from countryside.

It's a well-known phenomenon. E.g.: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-008-9163-9

It's been eroding lately, but mostly because fewer younger people can afford to live in suburbs. By "afford", I don't mean monetary cost, but the lack of easily accessible jobs.

I'm investigating that, and I believe that it's even _worse_ than the simple fertility rate shows. If you look specifically at the number of parents with two or more children, suburbs completely demolish cities when you control for the average income.

Controlling for the average income is needed because of the two poles of fertility: desperately poor people, and happy content people ("reversed J-curve"). And cities in the US disproportionally concentrate desperately poor people.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your argument paints with a very wide brush, which is likely the source of the downvotes. That said, I do think you're touching upon a decent theory whether you realize it or not: What if the real issue isn't merely environmental or economic in nature, but simply the species itself pulling back on births because we feel we have too many people already ? Maybe there's enough ongoing crises throughout the world (that w…

Sounds like anthropomorphism of species/evolution.

Is consciousness necessarily being implied here? That sort of reflective decision making can be indirectly influenced by what we might consider economics, but economics is fundamentally a process of allocating scarce resources across non-scarce desires. Markets represent a form of collective intelligence, even without necessarily representing sentience.

Individual families making rational economic decisions about child-rearing costs, when aggregated across millions of families, could produce patterns that look like species-level decision-making without requiring any actual species-level consciousness.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#220
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. I speculate that a different thing is happening in Europe. Every time I hear European takes on issues, it feels like Europe is post-religion, post-values, post-meaning. Everything is relative; pleasure is the only personal goal, and not harming others is the only external goal. Why even have kids? Why get married? It's a lot of work, plus the…

The "generational guilt" theory does not check out to me at all. Coming from central Europe, I mostly hear about these rethorics from English-language sources. In non-english European media generational guilt for colonization is hardly a thing in my experience.

Generational guilt can exist, for about one generation. After that it has to be taught.

Generational despair, on the other hand …

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