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The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

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Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#201

Post by rayiner »

quasse wrote: post #192
rayiner wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but the economic rationale of immigration is to have younger workers who can pay into the system to buffer the growing older population. That can’t happen if the immigrants never pay in more than they take out at any point in their life.

> Yes, but the economic rationale of immigration is to have younger workers who can pay into the system to buffer the growing older population Is it though? Not passing judgement either way, but the most common economic rationale for immigration generally seems to be that it's a source of cheap labor . > That can’t happen if the immigrants never pay in more than they take out at any point in their life. If the surplu…

> Is it though? Not passing judgement either way, but the most common economic rationale for immigration generally seems to be that it's a source of cheap labor.

If you have cheap labor who draw more in public services than they pay in taxes, then you're using tax dollars to effectively subsidize private profits. Maybe that's the unstated rationale, but few proponents of immigration would say that out loud.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#202

Post by thisisthenewme »

WalterBright wrote: post #129
Arainach wrote: post #7

The complaining about fertility rates, mostly done by the chunk of the population hoarding more and more of the wealth, will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

> will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves. Historically that's never been a requirement for people to make children. Poor people have tended to be pretty prolific. > hoarding more and more of the wealth In a free market society, wealth is created, it is not "concentrated".

Is there an upper bound to the creation of wealth? Is it infinite? Are there any limits to its creation? Is there any inherent value to it without being able to "transfer"?

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#203

Post by lucketone »

api wrote: post #188
xp84 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. I speculate that a different thing is happening in Europe. Every time I hear European takes on issues, it feels like Europe is post-religion, post-values, post-meaning. Everything is relative; pleasure is the only personal goal, and not harming others is the only external goal. Why even have kids? Why get married? It's a lot of work, plus the…

Why is fertility so low in Iran then? Or very Catholic Poland? It does not seem to correlate strongly with religion or belief systems. The strongest correlation I see is urbanization. People in cities don’t have kids as much.

Educated women tend to have fewer children.

(Also fewer child deaths)

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#204

Post by mcmoor »

cyberax wrote: post #18
Arainach wrote: post #7

The complaining about fertility rates, mostly done by the chunk of the population hoarding more and more of the wealth, will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

The drop in fertility rate is directly liked to migration into dense cities. They are just not a good place to have children. The US resisted the fertility drop for much longer, because of higher suburban population.

Any data for this? I think this maybe the real answer because unlike other explanations, this one can actually acquire proof from before modern ages. Simply because it's known that cities fertility rates were always negative and have to constantly pull people from countryside.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#205

Post by Ericson2314 »

cubefox wrote: post #138

When I posted the same result a few weeks ago, it got [flagged] in short order: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44520297

I'm sorry that happened to you, but the Atlantic is such a troll, I can understand why it was flagged.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#207

Post by WalterBright »

Arainach wrote: post #193
WalterBright wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you noticed the massive growth in government? You're paying for it, one way or another. Inflation is caused by the government via deficit spending. It's another tax on you.

Inflation isn't the problem. Corporate consolidation, collusion, price fixing, and market capture are the problems. In nearly every field where there used to be 10-20 competitors there are 2-4 and they're not doing much "competing" any more. They're using consultants and third parties to share data and fix prices, they're buying up the entire supply and dividing areas so they have monopolies. Note how during the COVI…

> In nearly every field where there used to be 10-20 competitors there are 2-4 and they're not doing much "competing" any more.

I'm old, and I've heard that my entire life. Something's wrong with your assessment.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#208

Post by lucketone »

stego-tech wrote: post #150
xp84 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sweden grants 68 weeks of shared parental leave and their TFR is at 1.45. I speculate that a different thing is happening in Europe. Every time I hear European takes on issues, it feels like Europe is post-religion, post-values, post-meaning. Everything is relative; pleasure is the only personal goal, and not harming others is the only external goal. Why even have kids? Why get married? It's a lot of work, plus the…

Your argument paints with a very wide brush, which is likely the source of the downvotes. That said, I do think you're touching upon a decent theory whether you realize it or not: What if the real issue isn't merely environmental or economic in nature, but simply the species itself pulling back on births because we feel we have too many people already ? Maybe there's enough ongoing crises throughout the world (that w…

Sounds like anthropomorphism of species/evolution.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#209

Post by WalterBright »

thisisthenewme wrote: post #202
WalterBright wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves. Historically that's never been a requirement for people to make children. Poor people have tended to be pretty prolific. > hoarding more and more of the wealth In a free market society, wealth is created, it is not "concentrated".

Is there an upper bound to the creation of wealth? Is it infinite? Are there any limits to its creation? Is there any inherent value to it without being able to "transfer"?

> Is there an upper bound to the creation of wealth?

No

> Is it infinite?

Yes

> Are there any limits to its creation?

Government trying to crush it.

> Is there any inherent value to it without being able to "transfer"?

The only value it has is what someone else is freely willing to pay for it. There is no such thing as "inherent" value.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#210

Post by triceratops »

Ericson2314 wrote: post #206

I think it's gonna be fine. The capital per person (capital deepening) will be great. Things that prove hard to automate will suffer — maybe elder care can't be automated and will go to shit — but a lot of stuff can be automated.

+100 climate change is the more immediate Big Global Problem. Let's fix that first then figure this one out.
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