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The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

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Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#21
post #7

The complaining about fertility rates, mostly done by the chunk of the population hoarding more and more of the wealth, will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

> will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

National fertility rates don’t correlate with any measure of average income. The only thing that does is the average number of years a woman spends being educated; this probably isn’t causal because the decline in fertility occurs across all income and education levels.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#22
The mid-century Baby Boom occurred after a surge in affordable home keeping technologies (vacuum cleaners, washing machines, refrigerators, etc). I think a rebound in fertility will have to come from technology. Specifically, robots to help with child care and new fertility treatments to allow women to have children later in their lives.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#23
> Don’t we care about output per capita?

Not "yes and no", the answer is simply yes. You cannot simply flood your country with unrestricted migration from lower GDP per capita countries and not expect overall growth to slow down.

> Yes, output per capita is the primary measure of individual welfare but...

> our ability to service debt and social security obligations depends on total output.

Our ability to service social obligations and debt entirely depends on GDP per capita. Whilst they are both paid on a GDP basis, they a generated as a multiplier of capita. If you have 1 million people, and add another million people (of the same distribution), social obligations are also doubled, as will debt, but both delayed. It's not that complicated.

> We live in a welfare state, and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

It's about to change now, the time is up. Governments world wide are now struggling to issue bonds at reasonable rates, there are no known mechanisms to unwind. The likes of Japan, a large buyer of the foreign bond market, starting to bring down its bond purchases, indicates this.

> Most immigrants worsen the fiscal position of the government.

This is especially true whilst you have a system already setup making a loss, such as the UK's pension system.

> Each immigrant into a rich country makes the position of poor countries harder.

Every doctor, nurse, engineer, etc, that we import is one less for their original country. What do we think that does to the original country on scale? What do we think that does to their growth?

> Affordable housing:

Many animals will not breed, and some even miscarry, if they are not in a suitable environment. Giving birth and raising children makes the mother/family very vulnerable. It seems that for all of our sophistication, the human race is no different. What we're measuring world wide appears to be an enormous economic deficit.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#24
post #18
post #7

The complaining about fertility rates, mostly done by the chunk of the population hoarding more and more of the wealth, will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

The drop in fertility rate is directly liked to migration into dense cities. They are just not a good place to have children. The US resisted the fertility drop for much longer, because of higher suburban population.

[deleted]

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#25
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately a lot of people are now saying we need extreme curtailing of rights -- largely womens' rights -- because of underpopulation. The answer to every panic is always curtailing of rights. Scary thing may happen therefore we need big alpha ape to fix it for us by bashing people on head with big rock. Grunt, grunt.

Right this is what I am saying. And I think that we should be outrageously skeptical of such people and oppose them with fervor. In the 70s people were saying that we needed to commit brutal oppression against a large portion of the world based on geography in order to prevent future catastrophe. These people were wrong in every possible dimension and has we listened to them we would have committed a world-historic e…

> In the 70s people were saying that we needed to commit brutal oppression against a large portion of the world based on geography in order to prevent future catastrophe.

What is this referring to?

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#26

The mid-century Baby Boom occurred after a surge in affordable home keeping technologies (vacuum cleaners, washing machines, refrigerators, etc). I think a rebound in fertility will have to come from technology. Specifically, robots to help with child care and new fertility treatments to allow women to have children later in their lives.

if we have all those robots doing everything for us, why do we need children?

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#27
post #18
post #7

The complaining about fertility rates, mostly done by the chunk of the population hoarding more and more of the wealth, will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

The drop in fertility rate is directly liked to migration into dense cities. They are just not a good place to have children. The US resisted the fertility drop for much longer, because of higher suburban population.

> The US resisted the fertility drop for much longer, because of higher suburban population.

It was immigration, but next generation of all immigrants (native born) adopts host country total fertility rate in this context.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/08/08/hispanic-...

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/10/26/5-facts-a...

https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/FT_19... visually nails this.

Now, would these people have had a higher birth rate if they remained in their LATAM countries? The data indicates no.

Latin America’s Baby Bust Is Arriving Early - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-22/latin-... | https://archive.today/EPMAU - May 22nd, 2025

Population Prospects and Rapid Demographic Changes in the First Quarter of the Twenty-first Century in Latin America and the Caribbean - https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/dc5... - 2024

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how is Paul Ehrlich linked to the original post? what is he wrong about?

Paul Ehrlich was the most visible figure in the midcentury fear of overpopulation. He claimed that by now we'd have seen starvation so profound around the world (100,000,000s dead of starvation) that large portions of the third world would collapse completely and that the only mechanism to prevent this starvation was extreme population control measures placed by the west on the rest of the world (including things lik…

India got there on overpopulation. Total fertility rate around 6 in 1965. India does not have enough water for its population.[1] China would have hit similar problems if not for their one-child policy. China managed to avoid the overshoot when medicine starts to work but the economy hasn't developed yet. India didn't.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_scarcity_in_India

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#29
post #7

The complaining about fertility rates, mostly done by the chunk of the population hoarding more and more of the wealth, will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

This totally ignores the fact that the decline in fertility is measurable across the globe in the poorest and wealthiest nations in the world. It's clearly not a simple matter of affordability...

Poor countries reproduce more, it's not same everywhere https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility
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