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Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

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Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#81

Post by AnimalMuppet »

bitshiftfaced wrote: post #69
dileeparanawake wrote: post #2

Increasing wealth inequality, drives prices inflation, wage stagnation and less disposable income, driving less consumption, driving less revenue for businesses, meaning cuts happen and hiring freezes, drives slowing growth in new job market.

> Increasing wealth inequality, drives prices inflation Why?

I think the claim is that the rich can overpay for whatever they want, driving up the price for everyone else. And that's true.

It's hard to square that with "less consumption", though...

Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#82

Post by QuantumGood »

exabrial wrote: post #80
dileeparanawake wrote: post #2

Increasing wealth inequality, drives prices inflation, wage stagnation and less disposable income, driving less consumption, driving less revenue for businesses, meaning cuts happen and hiring freezes, drives slowing growth in new job market.

I hate to tell you, the single cause of inflation is not "wealth inequality", it's extra dollars spent by the Federal Government that literally don't exist. The US Government writes checks that always cash, and unlike you and me, they don't have to have anything in the bank account behind it. This is the _sole and only_ cause of inflation. _Its the literal definition_ and is well documented.

Interest rates, supply chain issues, and monetary policy also play a role

Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#83

Post by rufus_foreman »

davidw wrote: post #10

I have been enjoying Paul Krugman's writing, now that he's free from the shackles of the New York "both sides!" Times https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/its-beginning-to-smell-a-... He's obviously got a political angle, but doesn't let that completely color his economic analysis.

On election night when Trump was elected in 2016, Krugman wrote in the NYT that the markets would never recover, and that there would probably be "a global recession, with no end in sight".

He definitely lets his political angle completely color his economic analysis. Now that Trump is back in the White House we are of course doomed, same as the last time he was in the White House, same as the next time.

If you've got a political angle that is closer to Krugman's than say Trump's maybe this is fine? I mean as long as you're OK with an economic analyst who doesn't have the slightest idea how banks work. If that's the kind of writing you're looking for, Krugman is a very good choice.

Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#84

Post by simne »

World already changed in 2024 (covid era ends, AI era begins, huge trade dis-balance of US actual for many decades, and new administration want to resolve it), but employers not release changed reality immediately (even when plans of conservatives was known in November).

Looks like now they slam on the brakes, and first cut new projects and now trying to build new approach.

And looks like, tip point was when president Trump demonstrated tables with new import tariffs.

What I mean, even when Apple, TSMC and other tech giants already said about huge investments, but they first stopped many already running projects and will spend at least few months before start new jobs (to be exact, on big projects, from budget decision to start hire, usually spend ~1-2 months).

What worsened things, some infrastructure giants are not in good shape (Intel, IBM, Ford), so, probably their tops will spend additional time to negotiate with investors new terms.

Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#85

Post by clipsy »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #81
bitshiftfaced wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Increasing wealth inequality, drives prices inflation Why?

I think the claim is that the rich can overpay for whatever they want, driving up the price for everyone else. And that's true. It's hard to square that with "less consumption", though...

> It's hard to square that with "less consumption", though...

Is it? I’m not sure of the truth, but it’s not hard to imagine that wealth inequality drives up the price of housing via the mechanism you describe, and increased housing prices drive down overall consumption as the non-wealthy struggle to afford basic necessities.

Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#86

Post by mlinhares »

bediger4000 wrote: post #50
andsoitis wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with no goal other than to cause harm My read is not that it is to cause harm / break things down per sé, but instead to deglobalize. At various times, the left and the right have made globalization the bogeyman and something to fight, so this idea has been in the ether. For many reasons (economic, geopolitics, peace), globalization is a great thing. Even if deglobalization were a great idea, then the execution is…

I, on the other hand, believe that it's not causing harm or deglobalization, but rather a way to generate cash for Trump himself. He or his lieutenants get cryptocurrency for either imposing tariffs on competitors, or not imposing threatened tariffs, or maybe shorting entire industries before the tariff is announced.

Yeah, it’s visible there is no particular plan for anything. Once they’re announced someone shows up to try to retcon it to something that resembles a reason but it is clear there are very large whales profiting from trading against these decisions.

That seems to be the main way people are profiting from this admin, insider trading. I doubt we’ll ever figure out who they were.

Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#87

Post by bigbadfeline »

andsoitis wrote: post #16
dileeparanawake wrote: post #2

Increasing wealth inequality, drives prices inflation, wage stagnation and less disposable income, driving less consumption, driving less revenue for businesses, meaning cuts happen and hiring freezes, drives slowing growth in new job market.

I think you've got your cause/effect chain a little muddled. I would also assert that the system dynamics are neither linear nor singular in the way you frame it. > Increasing wealth inequality, drives prices inflation How does increasing wealth inequality drive price increases?

> How does increasing wealth inequality drive price increases?

Increasing wealth inequality means fewer owners of more assets and market share, which means there's less competition and more monopoly pricing that cause higher inflation.

Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#88

Post by mlinhares »

tracker1 wrote: post #42
andsoitis wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with no goal other than to cause harm My read is not that it is to cause harm / break things down per sé, but instead to deglobalize. At various times, the left and the right have made globalization the bogeyman and something to fight, so this idea has been in the ether. For many reasons (economic, geopolitics, peace), globalization is a great thing. Even if deglobalization were a great idea, then the execution is…

I think that security/stability for a country as big as the US requires at least some localization. For example, IMO all medications, medical devices, infrastructure systems (such as telecom, power, etc.), hardware and materials should be at least 50% domestically produced and have at least dual sourcing. I realize that not all countries are big or diverse enough to accomplish this, and that's a reason why loose conf…

A country like the US should be self sufficient in energy, food and medicine, but there has never been a concerted policy to do that.

One of the biggest reasons is lobbying, for the US to be self sufficient in energy, for instance, it would have to invest heavily in renewable energy (like china is doing) but the oil lobby is never going to let that happen.

So with the government so captured by interests that don’t care about the long term stability of the country itself, it’s very difficult to effect these large changes.

Re: Job growth has slowed sharply; the question is why

#90

Post by maxglute »

Deport + limit immigration = degrowth = of course job growth would slow, maybe even turn negative. Perhaps there's this alternative scenario world where pressed Americans start working jobs illegals work, aka the jobs allegedly Americans won't. But Americans are too soft / have too much dignity / employers haven't increased wage (whatever interpretation you wish) for that to happen.
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