Open models by OpenAI

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44738004

... today, this is a real-time video of the OSS thinking models by OpenAI on Groq and I'd have to slow it down to be able to read it. Wild.

In my mind, I’m comparing the model architecture they describe to what the leading open-weights models (Deepseek, Qwen, GLM, Kimi) have been doing. Honestly, it just seems “ok” at a technical level:

- both models use standard Grouped-Query Attention (64 query heads, 8 KV heads). The card talks about how they’ve used an older optimization from GPT3, which is alternating between banded window (sparse, 128 tokens) and fully dense attention patterns. It uses RoPE extended with YaRN (for a 131K context window). So they haven’t been taking advantage of the special-sauce Multi-head Latent Attention from Deepseek, or any of the other similar improvements over GQA.

- both models are standard MoE transformers. The 120B model (116.8B total, 5.1B active) uses 128 experts with Top-4 routing. They’re using some kind of Gated SwiGLU activation, which the card talks about as being "unconventional" because of to clamping and whatever residual connections that implies. Again, not using any of Deepseek’s “shared experts” (for general patterns) + “routed experts” (for specialization) architectural improvements, Qwen’s load-balancing strategies, etc.

- the most interesting thing IMO is probably their quantization solution. They did something to quantize >90% of the model parameters to the MXFP4 format (4.25 bits/parameter) to let the 120B model to fit on a single 80GB GPU, which is pretty cool. But we’ve also got Unsloth with their famous 1.58bit quants :)

All this to say, it seems like even though the training they did for their agentic behavior and reasoning is undoubtedly very good, they’re keeping their actual technical advancements “in their pocket”.

My personal prediction is that the US foundational model makers will OSS something close to N-1 for the next 1-3 iterations. The CAPEX for the foundational model creation is too high to justify OSS for the current generation. Unless the US Gov steps up and starts subsidizing power, or Stargate does 10x what it is planned right now.

N-1 model value depreciates insanely fast. Making an OSS release of them and allowing specialized use cases and novel developments allows potential value to be captured and integrated into future model designs. It's medium risk, as you may lose market share. But also high potential value, as the shared discoveries could substantially increase the velocity of next-gen development.

There will be a plethora of small OSS models. Iteration on the OSS releases is going to be biased towards local development, creating more capable and specialized models that work on smaller and smaller devices. In an agentic future, every different agent in a domain may have its own model. Distilled and customized for its use case without significant cost.

Everyone is racing to AGI/SGI. The models along the way are to capture market share and use data for training and evaluations. Once someone hits AGI/SGI, the consumer market is nice to have, but the real value is in novel developments in science, engineering, and every other aspect of the world.

[0] https://www.anthropic.com/research/persona-vectors > We demonstrate these applications on two open-source models, Qwen 2.5-7B-Instruct and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct.