I don't consider myself a 10x engineer. The number one thing that I've realized makes me more productive than other engineers at my company is thinking through system design and business needs with patterns that don't take badly written product tickets literally. What I've seen with AI is that it does not save my coworkers from the pain of overcomplicating simple things that they don't really think through clearly. A…
I don't consider myself a 2x engineer; my company tells me that by not paying me 2x vs my colleagues, even if I know (and others believe that too) I deliver more than 2x their output. Using AI will change nothing in this context.
So always aim for outcomes, not output :)
At my company, we did promote people quickly enough that they are now close to double their salaries when they started a year or so ago, due to their added value as engineers in the team. It gets tougher as they get into senior roles, but even there, there's quite a bit of room for differentiation.
Additionally, since this is a market, you should not even expect to be paid twice for 2x value provided — then it makes no difference to a company if they get two 1x engineers instead, and you are really not that special if you are double the cost. So really, the "fair" value is somewhere in between: 1.5x to equally reward both parties, or leaning one way or the other :)