Live data from Hacker News

The Dollar Is Dead

mathmeetsmoney.substack.com

351–360 of 367 posts

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and the top 50% of incomes pay 97.7% of the federal taxes. The bottom 50% of incomes get 2.5% of GDP. Seems proper to me.

Gemini 2.5 Flash thinks they get 13.9%. When I asked for its source, it replied, "The Distribution of Household Income, 2019," by the Congressional Budget Office.

They get 2.5% of wealth which is a better estimate of real earnings. The data is for Q3 2024.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gemini 2.5 Flash thinks they get 13.9%. When I asked for its source, it replied, "The Distribution of Household Income, 2019," by the Congressional Budget Office.

They get 2.5% of wealth which is a better estimate of real earnings. The data is for Q3 2024.

I disagree that wealth is a better measure to use here. As programmers should know better than anyone, most of the wealth in the world is in the form of people and their capacity to work on teams that solve practical problems, but the wealth stats you want to use dont even try to estimate that form of wealth.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's been a spike in news articles on the invasion the last couple of weeks. Given that the US appears to not hold on to any alliances or assurances, and ~~incontinent~~ incompetent in chief is on the helm, it seems that they've the perfect opportunity. Europe's busy with Russia, US is busy with itself, so honestly, why not?

Economy is wrecked due to real estate and internal power struggles.

Launching wars to quell internal conflict is a common tactic.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Explain to me the benefit of attracting the wealthy if they don't pay tax? Come to our country - have our police and courts and soldiers protect you wealth - all for free. Oh - and because you are not paying tax - can I borrow some of that wealth please so I can pay for the stuff I'm providing for you free - I'll give you a healthy return. The rich benefit the most from civilisation - and it costs - you can't just ke…

> Explain to me the benefit of attracting the wealthy if they don't pay tax? You've fallen victim to the false dichotomy. I don't see anyone argue the wealthy shouldn't pay any tax at all. This renders the 2nd paragraph wrong. And then 3rd paragraph wrong too. > you can't just keep running from country to country hollowing it out for ever - eventually there will be nowhere left you can free ride. Depends how much tim…

They should pay in proportion to the amount of value they capture - having in effect, much lower margin rates the wealthier you are doesn't help pay the bills or maintain some sort of meritocracy.

And sure - while you could move from one country to another like a parasite finding a new host, and cycle around as the original host recovers - the key questions is whether that results in a few people owning more and more as a result, and paying a lower and lower marginal rate until civilisation collapses. ( or the rich decide to take the rains of power instead to keep the society they benefit from so hugely afloat ).

> IMO the education is poor, producing stupid societies electing the governments which are incompetent, corrupt and largely sympathizing with the rich.

I think you underestimate the level to which the rich judicously share their wealth in order to influence people and policy.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Europe has repeatedly tried to soak the rich, and the results are always the same: the rich move their wealth somewhere else and you end up breaking even or even reducing your tax revenue. France: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/31/france-drops-7... UK: https://obr.uk/box/effect-of-the-additional-rate-of-income-t... Sweden: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/course/seimAEJ17wealth.pdf It's interesting to note…

>Europe has repeatedly tried to soak the rich, and the results are always the same: Yes, the results are always the same: Europe consistently runs lower budget deficits, yet provides greater benefits to their citizens. How awful for them. https://www.cato.org/blog/spending-debt-oecd https://oecdstatistics.blog/2023/02/02/sizing-up-welfare-sta...

Europe also consistently hasn't paid for its own defense in eighty years.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Europe has repeatedly tried to soak the rich, and the results are always the same: Yes, the results are always the same: Europe consistently runs lower budget deficits, yet provides greater benefits to their citizens. How awful for them. https://www.cato.org/blog/spending-debt-oecd https://oecdstatistics.blog/2023/02/02/sizing-up-welfare-sta...

Europe also consistently hasn't paid for its own defense in eighty years.

They spend less than the US as a percentage of GDP, yes, but they don't spend zero: 2.5% or so vs our 4%. But who's to say they aren't right and we're wrong? Think about the cost of the Iraq and Afghan wars. Good investments?

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#358
post #333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FY2024 federal spend 6.75 trillion. FY2019 was 4.4 trillion. FY2009 was 3.1 trillion. Twice the growth in half the time. Was there so much more that private industry "will not fill" in 2024 vs 2009? How about vs 1999? (1.7 trillion budget). We can't attribute the difference to inflation: the US government's inflation calculator says 1.7 trillion in 1999 is 3.3 trillion today. No one is arguing that the federal govern…

> FY2024 federal spend 6.75 trillion. That's selective apples to oranges Deficit as % of GDP: 2009 - 10%, 2011 - 8.6%, 2012 - 6.7%, 2013 - 4% ... 2019 - 4.6%, 2020 - 15%, 2021 - 12%, 2022 - 5.4%, 2023 - 6%.

I don't think _deficit_ is at all a useful metric about the appropriate level of spending by the federal government-- Outside of emergencies deficit is merely a measure of gross financial incompetence in our elected officials.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#359
Can people help to fill in some of the gaps in this article? There are some striking claims that seem to have some basis in reality. But the article leaves a lot questions.

The the US dollar safe for now because of the lack of a viable alternative?

Seems like lowering interest rates and raising inflation is the only viable political solution. Sure, it causes issues with people financing our debt. But also, where else would they put their money?

Are there winners and losers here? Or does everyone lose?

How would the world work in an idealized free market without a reserve currency?

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The debate performance says otherwise

Trump's debate performance against Kamala was awful too ("concepts of a plan", etc), but he will forever get judged with a different set of criteria by his fans.

Whataboutism is pervasive and pernicious
Post reply on HN