Is there any other country with both the court system and wealth required to back up being the global reserve currency? I don't think there is and I don't see a viable contender showing up in the near future.
The European Union.
The Dollar Is Dead
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Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#12Even if the dollar was "dead" the time and effort required by the world economy to switch away from the dollar system would be enormous so not much is likely to happen quicker than a few decades.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#13Substack has got to be the worst medium for articles with graphs. There seems to be no way to zoom in or view a larger version of tge image.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#14I think that people and countries not wanting to purchase 30 year long term debt in a zero interest rate environment is perfectly natural. There is far more potential downside than upside and not evidence of demise.
Reality is that there is little motivation to invest in long term debt under 3%, normal motivation to invest in debt between 5-10% and huge appetite for debt above 10%.
Debt with a sub 2% interest rate can only be achieved with significant government intervention. We were living in an unrealistic economoic reality and now we’re going back towards something realistic with interest rates between 5-10%.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#15Is there any other country with both the court system and wealth required to back up being the global reserve currency? I don't think there is and I don't see a viable contender showing up in the near future.
As a counterpoint, confidence in US courts (particularly the federal courts) is rapidly declining — both among the public and among those who operate within the court systems.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#16Even if the dollar was "dead" the time and effort required by the world economy to switch away from the dollar system would be enormous so not much is likely to happen quicker than a few decades.
I think a lot depends on whether the US keeps being an unreliable actor and thus a pain to deal with.
If there's enough pain, it'll outweigh the pain of switching.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#17USD strength comes from military. Just as it was the case with all other currencies in the past. Do you see anyone challenging the US in a conflict? China won’t even invade Taiwan because they are afraid. ‘Nuff said.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#18Is there any other country with both the court system and wealth required to back up being the global reserve currency? I don't think there is and I don't see a viable contender showing up in the near future.
I agree with you. I don't even think in the near future there will be a single global reserve currency. There will be multiple ones, all of which weaker in terms of power and influence than the dollar.
Do you even need singular global currency in modern world? Where every transaction can be in essence instant if there was desire. And everything is digital. Overall it is rather different world and things can be done different than before.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#19Is there any other country with both the court system and wealth required to back up being the global reserve currency? I don't think there is and I don't see a viable contender showing up in the near future.
As a counterpoint, confidence in US courts (particularly the federal courts) is rapidly declining — both among the public and among those who operate within the court systems.
This is about how the courts operate with regards to international business disputes, US has proven record about being impartial in these matters.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#20Is there any other country with both the court system and wealth required to back up being the global reserve currency? I don't think there is and I don't see a viable contender showing up in the near future.
As a counterpoint, confidence in US courts (particularly the federal courts) is rapidly declining — both among the public and among those who operate within the court systems.
That’s true, but doesn’t necessarily contradict the question posed. Is any other country _better_ in both of those dimensions?