OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation • Hacker News Board

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#171

Post by jm20 » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:14 PM UTC

It's so funny. Every single time a company raises a ton of money at a large valuation, the comments are always filled with "how do they justify this valuation" or "they aren't work X...because Y and Z do the same thing".

VC math is pretty simple - at the end of the day, there's a pretty large likelihood that at least 1 AI company is going to reach a trillion dollar valuation. VCs want to find that company.

OpenAI, while definitely not the only player, is the most "mainstream". Your average teacher or mechanic uses "chatgpt" and "AI" interchangeably. There's a ton of value in becoming a vowel, even if other technically superior competitors exist.

Furthermore, the math changes at this level. No investor here is investing at a $300B valuation expecting a 10x. They're probably expecting a 3x or even a 2x. If they put in 300MM, they still end up with 600-900MM.

This isn't math on revenue, it's a bet. And if you think in terms of risk-adjusted bets, hoping the most mainstream AI company today might at least double your money in the next ten years in a red-hot AI market is not as wild as it seems.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#172

Post by joshka » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:14 PM UTC

I'm curious about how something like this affects compensation? OpenAI's compensation model is generally to use profit share instead of equity share. PPUs (Profit Participation Units) rather than RSUs (Restricted Stock Units).

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#173

Post by toephu2 » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:22 PM UTC

_fat_santa wrote: post #52

Given their current product offerings, I really don't see a way they could ever justify a $300B valuation unless they get everyone on the planet to subscribe to their $200/month plan. I'm calling it now: investors are gonna get burned hard on this one. Cause right now all they have is "well we are working on superintelligence" and to that I say "great, then what?". Even if they do make that breakthrough I don't see h…

Also, how would they go public? Do to their legal structure, has it been determined how they can IPO?

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#174

Post by bobsmooth » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:23 PM UTC

jstummbillig wrote: post #18

ozgrakkurt wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of all blockchain/AI hype bs, best thing is engineers getting rich

Because?

Because at least the people doing the work are getting rich instead of the already wealthy.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#175

Post by ac29 » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:23 PM UTC

hu3 wrote: post #133

dmix wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So about the same revenue as SpaceX.

SpaceX is unique. OpenAI is one of many.

SpaceX has a price advantage over their competitors, not a capability advantage.

Putting things in orbit has been possible for ~70 years

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#176

Post by bobsmooth » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:23 PM UTC

tiniuclx wrote: post #2

It boggles the mind what OpenAI could possibly do with all this money.

Give it to Nvidia.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#177

Post by halfmatthalfcat » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:33 PM UTC

jstummbillig wrote: post #90

shepherdjerred wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because this is a site for engineers Commenters are going to prefer things that benefit engineers even if it’s not themselves

a) That kind of group identity think seems super cringe b) If a particular set of engineers works to put "their people" out of a job, I am even more confused about the sanity of those willfully subscribing to the idea.

So by extension unions are super cringe?

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#178

Post by reducesuffering » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:43 PM UTC

So many comments talking about revenue, investors, profit, etc.

Remember when this company was a non-profit?! Our legal system is awful for letting this slide. The previous board was right.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#179

Post by thijsvandien » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:47 PM UTC

piqufoh wrote: post #167

Workaccount2 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tech people and their friends are like 1% of the population. Go out on the the street of Anytown in any western country, and people know "ChatGPT". A friend of mine is a teacher, and told me that at a recent school board meeting there was discussion about implementing AI into the learning curriculum. And to the board, "AI" and "ChatGPT" were used interchangeably. There was no discussion of other providers or models,…

Anecdotally, "skype" was once synonymous with video calls but it's pretty much never used now.

It's literally never used now, because it was taken offline earlier this year.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#180

Post by rvba » Fri, Aug 01, 2025, 8:49 PM UTC

pphysch wrote: post #86

mgfist wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> OpenAI’s business continues to surge. DealBook hears that the company’s annual recurring revenue has soared to $13 billion, up from $10 billion in June — and is projected to surpass $20 billion by the end of the year. This is why. Of course $300B still implies a lot of growth, but when you're growing 100% in 6 months at $10B in ARR, you can demand a lot.

Enron was also "growing" a lot when it was in full "paper tiger" mode.

Come on: openAI has a product that you can "touch" - both on your phone /home computer and at work, since their tech sits behind copilot (msft hit the jackpot with the licence).

It is a virtual product yes, but come on - no vapoware.

At work I see it - people want the better (and more expensive ) licences