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The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

derekthompson.org

761–770 of 817 posts

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#761
post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most families being able to afford a detached SFH was a historical anomaly that came with massive costs, and won’t be sustainable long term.

The "anomaly" happened when we were less productive overall. What change made it possible, and why can't we go back? Western societies are naturally below replacement rate, getting back to sfh as the norm seems like the inevitable outcome without the significant efforts at the national policy level.

>What change made it possible?

Massive federal investment (paid for by the entire nation but often only able to be capitalized on by white Christian nuclear families) and municipal bonds that pushed the costs of building infrastructure out decades.

>why can't we go back?

The original loans are still due and/or replacement costs for the infrastructure require new funding, at 2025 inflated prices, and civil rights and demographic changes mean that the old resistributive model can't work (not the least of which because of the outsize costs that will be incurred to maintain quality of life for the oldest Americans in the next two decades). There's probably more.

Not to say that reimagining the sfh couldn't lead to it still being viable. But 2500 sqft on an acre probably isn't tenable.

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#762

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fewer regulatory roadblocks like zoning would lead to more supply, which would lead to more competition, which would lead to better quality and cheaper rents.

At least in cities, it will probably just lead to more high-end housing that's bought up by people who don't even live there. The market doesn't work with so much income inequality.

High end housing takes pressure off of moderately high end housing, which takes pressure off mid end housing... all the way down the line. Housing supply simply takes pressure off the cost of living for everyone.

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#763

In Australia most of the narrative on the housing affordability crisis is around lack of supply and nimbyism. In the meantime Melbourne has dropped to 4th most expensive city in the country and becoming more affordable. Most likely reason - land tax change in that state which is turning off accumulating multiple properties through investment and investors turning to other states where prices are still going up. So, w…

I don't know what's so hard to understand about the idea that prices are high because the people who have the most influence over the prices want the prices high.

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#764

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I guarantee you all your Oak Park neighbors are the type who were With Hillary in 2016" Its both. That's the problem. In my neighborhood, the construction of any market rate housing will be blocked by Hillary voting land-owners and single family home owners and card-carrying Bernie Bros mad that a private developer even gets to set foot in the city. It's this alliance that has basically blocked housing in most metro…

As an example when I was active in housing in Chicago one of the organizations that was with us on the left was a developer of affordable housing: https://www.bickerdike.org/ Several of the activist actually worked for this developer. Real leftist housing rights supporters are not against developers. They are against for-profit, private equity, land banking speculators, and yeah nimby homeowners. In general we hated…

In a market system, Creating a system that is "against for profit" housing developers very predictively restricts housing supply & drives up the cost of living for everyone.

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#765

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Liberal" is an epithet here too (I'm a liberal, for whatever that's worth).

I am a libertarian (anarcho-capitalist) but people do not know the differences and similarities to liberal, because both has the prefix "liber".

Both ideologies evolved from the same source of classical liberalism, and still share plenty in common today.

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#766

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s more than just extra fixtures and interior walls but bathrooms, kitchens, plumbing, and HVAC - some of the most expensive parts of a build. That isn't necessarily saving anything. A 4000 square foot unit could very plausibly have four baths and HVAC zones, especially if it's a luxury unit. Meanwhile not doing that is exactly the sort of thing the existing rules nefariously prohibit. Suppose you want to turn th…

A developer in our example would still profit by offering a luxury unit with 3 bathrooms instead of 4. But you’re right that there will often be multiple baths and HVAC systems in a luxury unit - although electrical, plumbing, and fire suppression systems still scale up with the number of units. And kitchens remain a problem. Your dorm-style kitchen layout is creative, but the problem with this idea is that there is…

> A developer in our example would still profit by offering a luxury unit with 3 bathrooms instead of 4.

Would they though? Having one fewer bathroom would lower costs but also lower the value of the unit. Meanwhile it doesn't actually cost $400,000 to build one bathroom.

> Your dorm-style kitchen layout is creative, but the problem with this idea is that there is very little demand for dorm-style housing.

There is very little supply of dorm-style housing, because building it is banned. And it's banned because there is demand for it, especially when rents are high. Why would they bother to ban something nobody was going to do? If nobody wants it then there is no harm in getting rid of the ban because nobody will build it anyway, right?

> Developers are able to charge higher prices for more conventional layouts - where the demand is - which is what they will build even in the absence of regulation.

Let's suppose that's true in some cases. There is currently a lot of demand in some area for 4000 square foot units so that they're more profitable to build than four 1000 square foot units.

Then if you let them build 4000 square foot units, they do, and satisfy the demand for those units. At which point the price of those units comes down because the supply has increased. Which makes it more profitable to build smaller units going forward, because now that's where the unsatisfied demand remains -- in your example, the increase in supply of 4000 square foot units causes their price to fall from $2.2M to $1.9M while the four 1000 square foot units are still going for $2.4M and are now the more profitable alternative even if they cost more to build.

> Markets can handle some things well but the inability to provide merit goods (like housing) is one of their shortcomings. Unfortunately we need policies with more scope and ambition than YIMBYism if we want to tackle society’s larger problems.

The thing that I find suspicious is that if you actually want some specific thing, like more smaller units, there are obvious ways to make that happen. Just provide a tax credit for building smaller units, or a credit per-unit so that one 4000 sq ft unit gets you one credit and four 1000 sq ft units get you four credits each in the same amount. The result is going to be more smaller units than the market would otherwise demand, which is what you wanted, right?

But meanwhile people start proposing things like having the government not just build but actually operate rental properties, or constrain who is allowed to live in them, which tend to create nasty problems like "sorry, you make $1000/year more than the threshold for affordable housing so now there's a cliff where your rent goes up by $1000/month", or create a handful of housing projects that turn into an area of concentrated poverty while not actually providing enough housing for everyone who needs it and in particular not getting housing costs down for middle-income people.

And those policies strike me as attempts to disguise a desire to not solve the problem. They're token efforts to be able to claim that something is being done on paper so that housing costs can remain high in practice.

So I guess what I'm asking is, what are you actually proposing? And how is it better than some combination of "remove policies that inhibit construction" and "provide tax incentives to build more housing"?

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#767

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparel markets are much more free and competitive than housing markets, and have basically no restrictions on supply. Yet, the quality of available clothing across the world have fallen. And we get incredibly cheap incredibly low-quality garbage. These things are much more complex than simplistic single-variable models.

> the quality of available clothing across the world have fallen Do you have a source for this? Anecdotes along the lines of "they don't make 'em like they used to" are incredibly common but often fail to stand up to scrutiny.

Circumstantially, the dominance of fast fashion, produced quickly and sold cheaply, suggests that some aspect of production is more "efficient" than historically so. I've seen YouTube fashion experts explain exactly how (lower quality fabrics, simpler and less durable sewing, cuts that use less fabric than would be so in higher quality garments), and while I'm not experienced enough to corroborate, they were convincing.

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#768
post #5

So much of the journalism we read is heavily processed and barely-reported and it's startling to see how much of a superpower simple shoe-leather reporting actually is. Derek Thompson's an incredibly sharp writer, but not really a subject matter expert on housing economics; all he did here was read papers and call up the authorities they cited, and the narrative behind those papers collapsed. We're often so down on j…

This article is good, but the phrase "antitrust left" really turned me off. I am probably some kind of a leftist (I want higher taxes on rich people and a society much more welfare oriented with a substantial degree of labor and resource allocation performed democratically instead of by markets) but I don't know a single leftist who actually cares about this housing shit except to think that houses should be cheaper…

What is it like living a life completely ignorant of reality?

If you'd like to learn, feel free to ask chatgpt on the leftish pushback against abundance. Or historical examples of leftists blocking housing projects. Or environmentalists prioritizing niche interests over those of the general community. There are many, many examples.

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#769
post #722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It all makes sense when you take "abundance liberalism" for what it actually is: a rebranding of neoliberalism in support of establishment democrats. Its main goal is not to provide the democratic party with a new direction, but to defend the status quo against the populist left, incarnated by the likes of AOC and Mamdani. It makes sense then, that they'd spend more time attacking the left than the right, as they rea…

The Abundance movement is decidedly not pushing for the status quo. They are pushing for removing a good number of regulations on home building and zoning. That is an active change

You misread my comment, I meant the status quo of the current democratic party leadership.

Whatever deregulation "abundance liberalism" pushes for, it will immediately be killed off or undone by the people that benefitted from those regulations. The democratic party is plagued by private interests (almost as much as the republicans), who very much do not want to see homes getting cheaper.

The establishment, through its neoliberalist direction, has shown that it has either no interest or is completely powerless to curb the growing inequalities and societal issues stemming from them. Only a fool would fall for it again, because it is rebranded from "neoliberalism" to "abundance liberalism". "Deregulation" has been the chief word in politics for 50 years, what makes you think it will lead to somthing any different this time?

Re: The anti-abundance critique on housing is wrong

#770

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The business model of construction companies is to buy a piece of property, develop it and then sell it for something more than the cost of buying it plus the cost of developing it. Constraining supply increases the cost of property which they then have to pay in order to acquire properties to develop. It isn't really in their interest to increase their own costs. Let's say for a moment that this is close but not q…

At that point you've ceased to describe construction companies and are now describing real estate speculators while calling them construction companies. Moreover, notice how little sense that business model makes. To do that you would be sinking capital into vacant lots that you're neither developing nor receiving rents from while paying both property taxes and opportunity costs. You're paying interest on the loan or…

You must be drawing from experience in a specific locality in the US, probably a rural one, because what I described is how land sales in the largest cities in the US has worked for half a century.

Doing what I described in New York City is exactly how Donald Trump made an initial fortune back in the 80s. It's happening right now in Seattle.

The business model not making sense, is due to the incorrect assumptions you make. For one, that land or buildings in cities appreciate less quickly than the stock market.

> At that point you've ceased to describe construction companies and are now describing real estate speculators while calling them construction companies.

I'm not sure what you think the difference is in practice. There may exist some construction companies that don't engage in real estate speculation, they just aren't the big or most profitable ones. Which addresses:

> Meanwhile, what, if not for zoning rules and other regulations, is preventing anyone else from undoing your attempt to constrain supply by opening up a new construction company which is actually a construction company?

The fact that the most valuable land is owned by other construction companies who have more money because of the real estate speculation.

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