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OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#31

Post by ahmedhawas123 »

jjallen wrote: post #23
ahmedhawas123 wrote: post #15

So OpenAI is running at a $13B ARR, meaning this is a ~23X valuation. I don't have a good read on margin. But this would imply massive growth assumptions which I struggle a bit to understand where they come from. (1) New customers new to AI or migrations from Claude/Perplexity/Google: The overwhelming majority of people already know about the offerings, leaving most new people to come from residual people who identif…

They are already growing massively right. I saw the user growth from May was up massively. So it’s not much of an assumption of something changing, just a continuation of the same.

I guess my broader point is that there will undoubtedly be a bunch of churn as these models advance and a pricing war takes place. Specially if the open models continue to advance at a similar rate (e.g., Llama, Deepseek, Qwen)

We've seen this in many industries where it's a duopoly / oligopoly or even more players where margins get really squeezed

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#32

Post by jamespo »

paulcole wrote: post #27
chickenzzzzu wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing that can be stated as definitely good is that every person receives as much wealth from the profits of their actions in proportion to the amount of legitimate, valuable effort and vision that they contributed. EDIT: ive been rate limited I did realize that as I typed that :) that's why I added that extra bit about "valuable effort" and "vision". "Valuable effort" to me is a good proxy for "if this acti…

Why do you want to reward effort? I’ll just push a boulder uphill all day and accomplish nothing and then come with my hand out. Also, in your opinion what is the correct proportion of wealth received to legitimate, valuable effort, and vision contributed? I’d love an answer that is an integer percentage, like “43%.”

Makes a change from rewarding the luck of being in the right place at the right time

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#34

Post by Imustaskforhelp »

ahmedhawas123 wrote: post #15

So OpenAI is running at a $13B ARR, meaning this is a ~23X valuation. I don't have a good read on margin. But this would imply massive growth assumptions which I struggle a bit to understand where they come from. (1) New customers new to AI or migrations from Claude/Perplexity/Google: The overwhelming majority of people already know about the offerings, leaving most new people to come from residual people who identif…

Regarding point (2), My brother told me that openai had some exclusive contracts with companies where they could only use openai api and I don't think that they would really switch now, because I think switching would be hard.

Regarding point (1), OpenAI created 2 amazing trends which (though I hate OpenAI, Should be called ClosedAI) took internet by wild

First when chatgpt 3 was launched

And now when image ability of chatgpt was launched with the ghibli trend.

So Honestly, I had seen so many comments on r/localllama saying that openai has become just an infrastructure company or something and then openai dropped the new image update and now they are commenting about local ai's by pasting images generated by that new chatgpt ...

I am not sure but see, google makes most of its money using advertising & data basically.

I wouldn't be surprised if we started seeing sudden shifts of AI or started getting ads in AI somehow too.., because people trust AI and its a landmine of money really...

So OpenAI's 27x evaluation without any thought of ads or some data selling isn't that bad because they still got some nice engineers. The only Disgrace is the fact that they went from a non profit to an american psycho esque corporation saying "well OUR AI will take over jobs, but it was good for the shareholders in the short term though"

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#37

Post by wongarsu »

ahmedhawas123 wrote: post #15

So OpenAI is running at a $13B ARR, meaning this is a ~23X valuation. I don't have a good read on margin. But this would imply massive growth assumptions which I struggle a bit to understand where they come from. (1) New customers new to AI or migrations from Claude/Perplexity/Google: The overwhelming majority of people already know about the offerings, leaving most new people to come from residual people who identif…

We are still at the very start of seeing AI integrated into products and industry use cases. Even if AI capabilities stop improving and Altman's dreams of replacing workers don't pan out there is enormous economic potential here.

How much of that OpenAI can capture is an interesting question. But right now APIs for open-source models are commoditized while similarly capable proprietary models can charge ~3x the price. If the flagship models run on similar margins the API offering has decent profit margins. And if we stay in a triopoly (Anthropic, Mistral, OpenAI) it's certainly possible that profits stay high. It wouldn't be the first industry where that happens

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#39

Post by tbruckner »

ahmedhawas123 wrote: post #15

So OpenAI is running at a $13B ARR, meaning this is a ~23X valuation. I don't have a good read on margin. But this would imply massive growth assumptions which I struggle a bit to understand where they come from. (1) New customers new to AI or migrations from Claude/Perplexity/Google: The overwhelming majority of people already know about the offerings, leaving most new people to come from residual people who identif…

23X revenue multiple is not an expensive valuation for something growing well over 100% YoY, even by public market standards let alone venture capital valuation.
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